Quincy Vagell
EF4
I don't think it necessarily means much on the big scale, but I drove across the panhandles yesterday and even before the fires, the ground and vegetation were very dry and frail looking. The amount of land that burned yesterday alone was impressive, but then again, I've only frequented the southern Plains since 2014, so I can't speak to how previous droughts and/or fire seasons looked. The setup for fire ignition and spread was quite near historic, so that didn't help matters. In a more mesoscale sense, it's entirely possible that moisture return/quality may be at least slightly augmented by the drought, if it does not improve. On a lighter note, the large scale pattern does support at least some uptick in precipitation opportunities for portions of the southern High Plains and vicinity.
Anyway, I'm not overly excited about the coming weeks. There is some sign of a more zonal pattern with shortwave troughs crossing the U.S. next week and into the final week of April. I've said it before and climo suggests an uptick in this sort of activity in late April, even in otherwise "quiet" tornado seasons.
I'm not so sure what May will have to offer. The CFS has been consistently AOB average in terms of severe potential through the end of April and I don't take the model very seriously beyond week 2, as one would probably have better verification with climatology. With that said, the latest Euro weeklies showed a dreaded western ridge/eastern trough setup developing in early May. The brighter side is that as we get deeper into the season, it becomes easier for adequate moisture with northward extent, so setups that may have proved marginal/insufficient in March/early April will fare better in May.
My take on the next 2-3 weeks: Increased severe activity, as one would expect, but no signs of any major systems and/or extended periods of AOA severe activity.
Anyway, I'm not overly excited about the coming weeks. There is some sign of a more zonal pattern with shortwave troughs crossing the U.S. next week and into the final week of April. I've said it before and climo suggests an uptick in this sort of activity in late April, even in otherwise "quiet" tornado seasons.
I'm not so sure what May will have to offer. The CFS has been consistently AOB average in terms of severe potential through the end of April and I don't take the model very seriously beyond week 2, as one would probably have better verification with climatology. With that said, the latest Euro weeklies showed a dreaded western ridge/eastern trough setup developing in early May. The brighter side is that as we get deeper into the season, it becomes easier for adequate moisture with northward extent, so setups that may have proved marginal/insufficient in March/early April will fare better in May.
My take on the next 2-3 weeks: Increased severe activity, as one would expect, but no signs of any major systems and/or extended periods of AOA severe activity.