2015-January

[calvinkaskey]

Last month had above normal tornadic activity with even an F-3 and 4 deaths with 16 tornadoes on one day. Already have had 7 tornadoes on 2 days his month. I think my first chase last year was on Feb 21st in North Carolina. Last time I knew February was supposed to be colder than normal but that was maybe a month ago. I'd expect above normal tornadic activity this month if we don't see even colder air than the next outbreak of cold. January 17 1999 saw 50 tornadoes in Arkansas alone making it possibly the highest concentration of tornadoes ever. A stronger subtropical jet due to El Nino should also help. My best chase day last year was April 29th in North Carolina. Everyone should be prepared for early outbreaks especially with global warming.

 

[Austin Jones]

I would agree that the southeast has seemed pretty active over the last month. I would also say that it has not been nearly as cold this winter as last year (at least it seems to me). When I think about last year I remember never ending waves of cold air. So far this winter however the temps have seemed much fairer and I cant help but hope this and the activity in the southeast, are all signs of a good upcoming year. Though sitting here in MO I must say the cold air has arrived, last night during my run it was 10 degrees and my eyelashes froze for the first time this year. ( freezing eyelashes are a very accurate way to determine if its cold ).

I must finish by saying that while its fun to hope for a good year, its far to early to make any accurate predictions by any method. I also would never use global warming to forecast tornadoes, As global climate change is unclear and massive in scale, while tornadoes occur on an extremely small scale relative to the global climate.

 

[calvinkaskey]

About global warming

I'm thinking just 20 or so years ago this would be an unusual winter without any major cold outbreaks yet it seems. It seemed pretty normal to get below zero highs well south into the midwest, ie. Kansas. Globally the temperatures have been abnormally warm the past 10 years. If I'm not mistaken there was a tornado watch in New Jersey in February of last year even with the cold. That's not normal.

I would agree that the southeast has seemed pretty active over the last month. I would also say that it has not been nearly as cold this winter as last year (at least it seems to me). When I think about last year I remember never ending waves of cold air. So far this winter however the temps have seemed much fairer and I cant help but hope this and the activity in the southeast, are all signs of a good upcoming year. Though sitting here in MO I must say the cold air has arrived, last night during my run it was 10 degrees and my eyelashes froze for the first time this year. ( freezing eyelashes are a very accurate way to determine if its cold ).

I must finish by saying that while its fun to hope for a good year, its far to early to make any accurate predictions by any method. I also would never use global warming to forecast tornadoes, As global climate change is unclear and massive in scale, while tornadoes occur on an extremely small scale relative to the global climate.