2/23/07 NOW: TX, OK, KS

Dan Dawson, Jana Houser, my wife, and I are sitting in Wellington Texas (between Childress and Shamrock), waiting some consolidation of the cells to our west. Yay for initiation! We are hoping for good things from the cell west of Memphis and NW of CDS.
 
Jeff,

Cell West of Memphis seems to be your best bet right now. Not sure how elevated the storm is, but looks the best on radar and velocity scans. Looks like this guy might be around for a while if it can stay organized...
 
The Hall Co. cell just went to hell... but what's this to the west? A brand new cell has just exploded on the northern rim of the Palo Duro canyon southeast of Goodnight. Also a new cell going up between Panhandle and Pampa. If these interact with any ofb's left by the earlier convection things could get interesting in a hurry. Also a new cell going up southwest of Perryton. Out of the three, the one southeast of Goodnight holds the most interest for me, as it's on the southern end of the line and therfore climatologically favored.
 
Verne Carlson, Michael Carlson, and myself are sitting on the south side of I-40 at the McLean exit, probably move east a bit here in a bit to get in position for the southern cell moving our way. Nothing looks terribly exciting as of yet, cold inflow and rain at our location.
 
Tony,

Watch for the cells to the west of the ones that have already formed. Towers are going up there and it seems they are interacting with outflow boundaries from the earlier storms.
 
I am sitting here in McLean, TX with Rocky. One cell just passed to our north with a visible meso. It briefly had some rising scud under the base. We are currently waiting for the next cell coming up from the south. The CGs are increasing. SO far, It is better than I expected for february. I will be posting pictures later tonight.
 
Tony,

Watch for the cells to the west of the ones that have already formed. Towers are going up there and it seems they are interacting with outflow boundaries from the earlier storms.

They are interacting with rain cooled/cold outflow from the storms that passed I dont think I would expect much tornadic activity from storms taking on that kind of inflow.
 
Tony, Verne and Michael:
I'd watch the cell developing about twenty miles southwest of your current location. It appears to be feeding off an outflow boundary left behind by the convection currently passing over you. And plus it's coming right at you, so you don't have to reposition. Not sure about tornadic potential, but it should have good structure, anyway.
 
Those storms behind are likely to go linear very quickly with the advance of the dryline. I was hoping to see those three say discrete and keep going, but it's almost as if the speed shear is just too much for the sbcape. I was concerned about this all along, but is typical for these early season systems. Instability is more of a challenge than is shear. Now I'm concerned about fading daylight.

It's almost as if once they get north of right along I-40, they just go to crap! Now all the stuff looks more to be elevated, at least from the radar signatures.

Perhaps something will get going a little farther south later, but daylight will be a challenge.
 
The cell over southern Donley County appears to have the best gate 2 gate shear right now. Undoubtedly it is producing a nice meso and banding. This cell is or will be producing a tornado shortly IMO. The other cell further to the north over Southern Gray county also may be ready to produce a tornado...but I like the Gray county storm!!
 
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