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2/23/07 NOW: TX, OK, KS

Figured my previous post in the forcast thread would be more appropriate for a now thread.

current conditions
childress: fair, temp-69, td-53, winds gusting from the south at 26mph.
altus: overcast, temp-63, td-54, south winds gusting to 25mph.

IDK how deep the moisture field is but mid-50's have arrived!!! i say we still have a shot at initiation before dark.

EDIT: surprised to see alva reporting in with a td of 54! didn't think mid-50's would be streaking that far north this fast. also, Norman has mentioned in thier short term forcast that initiation late this afternoon is still possible.
The Alva, OK dewpoint has always been several degrees too high... per surrounding mesonet obs, the 20z dewpoint around Alva is actually around 50 or 51F. Anyway, for those interested, our (NWS DDC) short-fuse composite is still running, and can be accessed at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=shortfuse, which updates around :35 after the hour. I have modified it such that CAPE contouring starts at 100 J/kg... it will be interesting to watch this especially tomorrow.. looking forward to an active night here in the DDC CWA... the juice is racing north!
i did not know that. thanks mike. on visiblt satelite you can now see a cu field beginning to develop over the eastern tx panhandle.things should begin to get interestin in the next 2-3 hrs.
The latest images in the visible loop radar loop appear to show a CU field appearing in the exact location of the most recent Mesoscale Discussion (ahead of the dryline in the eastern TX panhandle). Initiation before dark would appear to be a good bet.

Good luck, Southern Plains Sports Racers!
Things starting to come together now on the vis sat loop. Fairly good cu has popped up over Gray Co. Tx. It looks to be all alone in the Tx panhandle and might have a chance to do something. Granted it is still early but surface temps are higher than forcasted and the dewpoints are in the mid 50's in the area. Also note the incoming wave is now visible on radar and has moved into extreme portions of the Tx panhandle.

Edit: Shane your right the Cu field in between Lubbock and Amarillo has really grown in the last 30 min. I wonder whats going to come out of that, hmm......
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WW 27 TORNADO KS OK TX 232110Z - 240400Z

New Tornado Watch issued as cumulus field continues to develop and initiation looks likely in a few hours. This one might just be coming together for the good. Expecting at least isolated supercells in the watch box with an isolated tornado or two. Hope our chasers get on em. Good luck to all!
Well Cu field is stretched all along the diffuse dryline from SW Kansas through the panhandles all the way to Abiliene/Lubbock. There's no substantial surface moisture convergence or dryline bulge...which leads me to believe the synoptic scale vertical ascent is the reason for the broad cu field. I have been pessimistic the entire time and this leads me to believe the forcing is just too strong today. Enough moisture and strong shear usually trends toward quasi-linear storm mode, but obviously we won't know until free convection occurs. I'll be nowcasting, instead. ;)
Been watching the surge of moisture and satellite loops over the past 30 minutes, and I have good feeling that some convection will fire in the Lubbock/Plainview/Childress area within the hour, if not sooner. Problem seems to be forcing, which may lead to these cells quickly going linear or scattered "clusters." For the chasers on this, I hope this is not the case. I do like the wind fields. Per OU mesonet, anywhere south of I-40 looks not too bad for this time of year, with mid-50s TDs and south-southeast surface winds howling with gusts near 35 in most places. Any chasers near the Childress area might get to see some daylight activity. Call it a "hunch," but I'd be targeting the magic area of Turkey, TX right about now.

Stratus deck over much of west-central OK, but once you hit the state line, it's clear skies and cu fields. Dryline does seem rather diffuse at the moment, which still leads me to thinking this will be more of a nocturnal event, but I'm hoping for some initiation before sunset.

Good luck everyone! Stay safe.
Out of the area indicated...but thought this was interesting... in IOWA!




So while initiation is expected in TX we shave severe weather in Iowa already.
took a look at the SPC mesoanalysis and noticed that the area between lubbock an childress has SBCAPE of 1500 j/kg, LI's -4, and Sig. Svr indicies of 40. everythings looking good. im ready to see some initiation!
Per mesoscale analysis MSL pressure, is that a subtle WNW-ESE oriented DL bulge from about Littlefield down to about Snyder? That could explain the growing cu field invof Plainview, no? Temp/Dewpoint/Wind graphic (SPC) also indicates a bump in the temp (up to 78F) E of Plainview. Slight compression? Or maybe I'm just nuts. No clues from LBB VAD.

*edit* We're getting some reflectivities just NE Plainview now.

*re-edit* So who's hanging out in Clarendon right now? :)
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That is one big, messy cu field over much of the TX panhandle. I'm assuming it doesn't get dark there until 6-6:30? I'm seeing a couple of little echoes on radar from Amarillo and Lubbock radar. I'd put those somewhere near the fall of the caprock, maybe east or very near Plainview, TX.
SBCAPE has increased quite a bit ahead of the dryline in the past few hours courtesy of the strong diabatic heating via strong insolation. SPC/RUC mesoanalysis shows an axis of >1000jkg with diminished SBCINH and lowered SBLFC heights from northwest of CDS and points southwest along the dryline. I'm a bit worried how convection will react to the lack of larger-scale capping and the dewpoint depressions... But I suppose things could shape up for any storms as they move off the boundary and into the open warm sector (and ingest boundary layer air that is more moist than further west where insolation has increased the Td depression). With deep-layer shear so intense, no doubt will storms have the potential to become supercellular in nature should they become organized and feed off boundary layer parcels. I'd choose to stay around CDS and points and a bit SSW.
Based on what I am seeing on the sat images, radar from AMA and sfc conditions, I wouldn't mind to be sitting on a N/S line anywhere from Shamrock, TX down to Childress, TX about right now. Things are starting to look interesting just to the W of those locations. Hopefully it'll get going before dark. There's now a pretty decent size echo over SW Briscoe County, TX in the 30 dbz range. Will be interesting to see what happens with it.
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yeah i just caught that too...just pulled up radar and noticed it. i should've looked before posting it. the dryline is coming together quite nicely now. td's in amarillo have dropped to 27.
got a few cells pooping up on radar in theTX Panhandle over Silverton and appear to be moving to the ENE.

I am about to arrrive in Lawton and I think I am going to jet over to Altus. I got a late start on the day to day and I thus I am a little farther from my target than I would like to be by now.
on visible satelite there appears to be a couple cells coming together on the nrn end of the dryline around penyton and borger. looks like we will have several cells goin on by 5.
Yeah, but I guarantee none of that stuff is rooted. Until something sucks through the cap, we could have towers going up and dying for awhile.
Moisture continues to surge northward as Childress is now showing a dewpoint of 59. CAPE increasing also to near 1,5000 J/kg. Reflectivities showing up in Briscoe, Floyd, and Donley counties at this time. It still may take just a bit to get these storms going, but if I was out I would setup near Memphis or just west/northwest of Childress. When these storms go they could go big, esp. as the jet kicks in towards the evening. If storms stay discrete they have a chance to mature and be tornadic as they move towards the Oklahoma/Texas border.
I think you're right Chris. For now, nothing seems to be rooting, and I'm wondering just how shallow this moisture really is? My thoughts are that as soon as this stuff falls off the caprock, and gets into a more depth of moisture, cells will increase in intensity. Problem is, only 1-2 hours of daylight left, and even though the dryline is a little more defined, nothing yet is sending it screaming east.

Best cells are just south of I-40, between AMA and the OK border, moving quickly ENE. But for right now anyway, they all appear together in a small cluster. It would be nice to see one of them jump out in front!
Cell NE of Plainview, Tx has got a pretty good core to it and looks like it is growing. If this cell doesnt get ripped apart in the next 15 mins im putting my money on this being the first supercell of the day.