2/23/07 NOW: TX, OK, KS

[Justin Bailey]

Figured my previous post in the forcast thread would be more appropriate for a now thread.

current conditions
childress: fair, temp-69, td-53, winds gusting from the south at 26mph.
altus: overcast, temp-63, td-54, south winds gusting to 25mph.

IDK how deep the moisture field is but mid-50's have arrived!!! i say we still have a shot at initiation before dark.

EDIT: surprised to see alva reporting in with a td of 54! didn't think mid-50's would be streaking that far north this fast. also, Norman has mentioned in thier short term forcast that initiation late this afternoon is still possible.

 

[Mike Umscheid]

The Alva, OK dewpoint has always been several degrees too high... per surrounding mesonet obs, the 20z dewpoint around Alva is actually around 50 or 51F. Anyway, for those interested, our (NWS DDC) short-fuse composite is still running, and can be accessed at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=shortfuse, which updates around :35 after the hour. I have modified it such that CAPE contouring starts at 100 J/kg... it will be interesting to watch this especially tomorrow.. looking forward to an active night here in the DDC CWA... the juice is racing north!

 

[Justin Bailey]

i did not know that. thanks mike. on visiblt satelite you can now see a cu field beginning to develop over the eastern tx panhandle.things should begin to get interestin in the next 2-3 hrs.

 

[Darren Addy]

The latest images in the visible loop radar loop appear to show a CU field appearing in the exact location of the most recent Mesoscale Discussion (ahead of the dryline in the eastern TX panhandle). Initiation before dark would appear to be a good bet.

Good luck, Southern Plains Sports Racers!

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Things starting to come together now on the vis sat loop. Fairly good cu has popped up over Gray Co. Tx. It looks to be all alone in the Tx panhandle and might have a chance to do something. Granted it is still early but surface temps are higher than forcasted and the dewpoints are in the mid 50's in the area. Also note the incoming wave is now visible on radar and has moved into extreme portions of the Tx panhandle.

Edit: Shane your right the Cu field in between Lubbock and Amarillo has really grown in the last 30 min. I wonder whats going to come out of that, hmm......

 

[Zac Goode]

Currently sitting in Elk City Nippin on some wi fi. Think im gonna head south towards Altus.

 

[Jeff Miller]

WW 27 TORNADO KS OK TX 232110Z - 240400Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NW DDC/DODGE CITY KS/ - 70SE LBB/LUBBOCK TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /33E GCK - 63WNW ABI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

New Tornado Watch issued as cumulus field continues to develop and initiation looks likely in a few hours. This one might just be coming together for the good. Expecting at least isolated supercells in the watch box with an isolated tornado or two. Hope our chasers get on em. Good luck to all!

 

[Shane Hale]

I just wanted to add this quick link to Sat image/loop.... Looks to be starting to brew.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?N_Texas

 

[Justin Bailey]

im really liking the 74/55 reading in childress. i didn't expect to see this much warming today.

 

[Adam Atkins]

Well Cu field is stretched all along the diffuse dryline from SW Kansas through the panhandles all the way to Abiliene/Lubbock. There's no substantial surface moisture convergence or dryline bulge...which leads me to believe the synoptic scale vertical ascent is the reason for the broad cu field. I have been pessimistic the entire time and this leads me to believe the forcing is just too strong today. Enough moisture and strong shear usually trends toward quasi-linear storm mode, but obviously we won't know until free convection occurs. I'll be nowcasting, instead.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Been watching the surge of moisture and satellite loops over the past 30 minutes, and I have good feeling that some convection will fire in the Lubbock/Plainview/Childress area within the hour, if not sooner. Problem seems to be forcing, which may lead to these cells quickly going linear or scattered "clusters." For the chasers on this, I hope this is not the case. I do like the wind fields. Per OU mesonet, anywhere south of I-40 looks not too bad for this time of year, with mid-50s TDs and south-southeast surface winds howling with gusts near 35 in most places. Any chasers near the Childress area might get to see some daylight activity. Call it a "hunch," but I'd be targeting the magic area of Turkey, TX right about now.

Stratus deck over much of west-central OK, but once you hit the state line, it's clear skies and cu fields. Dryline does seem rather diffuse at the moment, which still leads me to thinking this will be more of a nocturnal event, but I'm hoping for some initiation before sunset.

Good luck everyone! Stay safe.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Out of the area indicated...but thought this was interesting... in IOWA!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...
NORTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CST

So while initiation is expected in TX we shave severe weather in Iowa already.

 

[Justin Bailey]

took a look at the SPC mesoanalysis and noticed that the area between lubbock an childress has SBCAPE of 1500 j/kg, LI's -4, and Sig. Svr indicies of 40. everythings looking good. im ready to see some initiation!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Per mesoscale analysis MSL pressure, is that a subtle WNW-ESE oriented DL bulge from about Littlefield down to about Snyder? That could explain the growing cu field invof Plainview, no? Temp/Dewpoint/Wind graphic (SPC) also indicates a bump in the temp (up to 78F) E of Plainview. Slight compression? Or maybe I'm just nuts. No clues from LBB VAD.

*edit* We're getting some reflectivities just NE Plainview now.

*re-edit* So who's hanging out in Clarendon right now?

 

[Billy Griffin]

That is one big, messy cu field over much of the TX panhandle. I'm assuming it doesn't get dark there until 6-6:30? I'm seeing a couple of little echoes on radar from Amarillo and Lubbock radar. I'd put those somewhere near the fall of the caprock, maybe east or very near Plainview, TX.