2/23/07 NOW: TX, OK, KS

[nickgrillo]

SBCAPE has increased quite a bit ahead of the dryline in the past few hours courtesy of the strong diabatic heating via strong insolation. SPC/RUC mesoanalysis shows an axis of >1000jkg with diminished SBCINH and lowered SBLFC heights from northwest of CDS and points southwest along the dryline. I'm a bit worried how convection will react to the lack of larger-scale capping and the dewpoint depressions... But I suppose things could shape up for any storms as they move off the boundary and into the open warm sector (and ingest boundary layer air that is more moist than further west where insolation has increased the Td depression). With deep-layer shear so intense, no doubt will storms have the potential to become supercellular in nature should they become organized and feed off boundary layer parcels. I'd choose to stay around CDS and points and a bit SSW.

 

[George Tincher]

Based on what I am seeing on the sat images, radar from AMA and sfc conditions, I wouldn't mind to be sitting on a N/S line anywhere from Shamrock, TX down to Childress, TX about right now. Things are starting to look interesting just to the W of those locations. Hopefully it'll get going before dark. There's now a pretty decent size echo over SW Briscoe County, TX in the 30 dbz range. Will be interesting to see what happens with it.

 

[Bob Schafer]

if any part of that "bulge" near plainfield does go up it'll be the SE portion of it closest to the better instability and moisture.

Errr..."Plainview". My bad. I started it (and edited).

 

[Justin Bailey]

yeah i just caught that too...just pulled up radar and noticed it. i should've looked before posting it. the dryline is coming together quite nicely now. td's in amarillo have dropped to 27.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

got a few cells pooping up on radar in theTX Panhandle over Silverton and appear to be moving to the ENE.

I am about to arrrive in Lawton and I think I am going to jet over to Altus. I got a late start on the day to day and I thus I am a little farther from my target than I would like to be by now.

 

[Justin Bailey]

on visible satelite there appears to be a couple cells coming together on the nrn end of the dryline around penyton and borger. looks like we will have several cells goin on by 5.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Yeah, but I guarantee none of that stuff is rooted. Until something sucks through the cap, we could have towers going up and dying for awhile.

 

[Chris Wilburn]

Moisture continues to surge northward as Childress is now showing a dewpoint of 59. CAPE increasing also to near 1,5000 J/kg. Reflectivities showing up in Briscoe, Floyd, and Donley counties at this time. It still may take just a bit to get these storms going, but if I was out I would setup near Memphis or just west/northwest of Childress. When these storms go they could go big, esp. as the jet kicks in towards the evening. If storms stay discrete they have a chance to mature and be tornadic as they move towards the Oklahoma/Texas border.

 

[Billy Griffin]

I think you're right Chris. For now, nothing seems to be rooting, and I'm wondering just how shallow this moisture really is? My thoughts are that as soon as this stuff falls off the caprock, and gets into a more depth of moisture, cells will increase in intensity. Problem is, only 1-2 hours of daylight left, and even though the dryline is a little more defined, nothing yet is sending it screaming east.

Best cells are just south of I-40, between AMA and the OK border, moving quickly ENE. But for right now anyway, they all appear together in a small cluster. It would be nice to see one of them jump out in front!

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Cell NE of Plainview, Tx has got a pretty good core to it and looks like it is growing. If this cell doesnt get ripped apart in the next 15 mins im putting my money on this being the first supercell of the day.

 

[Justin Bailey]

Yeah, but I guarantee none of that stuff is rooted. Until something sucks through the cap, we could have towers going up and dying for awhile.

they dont look like they'll be dying anytime soon to me. wish i could be sitting just NE of plainview right now. i dont see that cell goin much longer without being warned.

 

[Jeff Miller]

EXPLOSIVE thunderstorm development in one scan as development is now being rooted SE of Amarillo. Here we go. from 0 to 55 dbz in one scan!

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Sitting south of DDC, can't see any towers west now. Might be some better stuff just sw of here. Looping the 500mb winds/temps on mesoanalysis would lead one to believe we're about to go here. The cold stuff should be overspreading the dl very soon.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Yeah - that one in between Amarillo and Childress might be the ticket. It's in the perfect spot if it can keep from getting torn apart. 75/55 nearby offers the best hope for moisture on the board. Healthy core showing up now. Still plenty of daylight left too.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Believe we officially have a supercell according to latest radar as it is quickly taking on supercellular characteristics. Persons on I 40 should get a great view.