2/23/07 NOW: TX, OK, KS

[Paul Austin]

It's not just you, Justin. Definitely anticyclonic, based on SRM velocity scans.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Verne, Michael, and I score near McLean. More later...

 

[Jeff Miller]

Beautiful!!!!!!!! CONGRATS!!!! Success in February.

These storms are looking impressive now, might be able to drop more! Two well defined supercells with the middle one really behaving perfect. What a way to begin the season. Good luck Tony on more.

 

[Sam Shamburger]

I've been doing some nowcasting for Patrick Skinner and a group of Texas Tech students that are on the southern storm in Collingsworth County. Around 630 pm north of Memphis they reported awesome structure on that storm with a long inflow band and large blocky wall cloud. Unfortunately they got to the storm just after the reported tornado (around 622 pm northeast of Hedley per LSR from AMA).

That storm is looking much more disorganized on radar now than it did earlier as it moves into northeast Collingsworth County.

 

[Bob Schafer]

hmm is that the end of the show?

I was just contemplating that. Storms are headed for lower CAPE environment. Will LLJ and Mid/Upper CAA compensate?

 

[rdale]

Storm approaching Buffalo actually has no lightning and VIL of 2, but OUN just updated saying it's still severe? Hard to imagine this batch reintensifying...

 

[HAltschule]

Seems to me based on the current conditions, that there is a lot more stability east and north of the action. While there have been some decent cells today, I am wondering whether the lower levels of the atmosphere are going to squelch a large outbreak from occurring. I am starting to think more and more along those lines.

 

[Jarrod Cook]

These storms are really low-topped too - most look at or under 40kft. Hopefully the shear doesn't rip these things apart.

 

[Bob Schafer]

These storms are really low-topped too - most look at or under 40kft. Hopefully the shear doesn't rip these things apart.

Echo tops are supposedly 35-40K for all except Beaver cty OK (PH), which says 41.

So you are correct!

Except, I dunno, I consider 25-30K "low-topped"?

 

[Justin Bailey]

seems like these storms went to split right as they where headed for the more stable air and it just crapped them out. however, i believe that if they can survive until the CAA arrives then they'll fire back up and we'll also see redevelopment along the dryline.

 

[Justin Bailey]

actually, that last frame shows the middle cell looking somewhat better. still has some weak rotation too.

EDIT: the storm east of guymon, ok is starting to look nice with decent rotation evident from DDC and a hook beginning to develop.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Well, the 00z RUC is very disappointing. The 700mb CAA that was supposed to move out over the warm sector by 06z is instead hanging back behind the dryline, and moving out simultaneously with it. As a consequence much of the precip according to the RUC will be stratiform. Based on the 00z soundings, it does appear the CAA is hanging back, so I've pretty much written off the rest of the evening. I think part of the problem may have been that the NAM didn't realize how much the strong insolation in northwest TX was going to modify the temperatures at 700mb. Looking at the AMA sounding, which was dry adiabatic from the sfc to 600mb, it would seem that the instability was resolved in the atmosphere by strong solar radiation and dry convection during the day, as opposed to strong moist convection at night, in the model. Climatology wins again!

 

[JR Hehnly]

Power flashes were reported by media in or near Woodward, but from the location described (more IN woodward as couplet moved to the south and east) it sounds more like RFD than tornado. No furthur power flashes were reported.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Well, perhaps as a jaded chaser I spoke too soon. As long as the storms are sfc-based I'm very excited, I'm just concerned that the SPC mesoanalysis shows the most unstable parcel being about 750m-1km above ground level in western OK.

 

[JR Hehnly]

New tornado watch being issued, valid until 6AM and includes the Oklahoma City metro area... gonna be a long night...