10-29-04 FCST: Midwest & Plains

[Jon Miller]

A little far out now but -a thread for Wednesday might be in order:

r.e.: CPC US Hazard Assessment
"A widespread outbreak of scattered strong and severe thunderstorms is likely to develop in advance of a strong trough crossing the middle of the country around Oct. 27-29"

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...ts/threats.html

GFS showing 60-65 Td's across plains up into Iowa with good 500 mb sw winds and a well developed dryline.

Thursday & Friday also looking potentially good so threads may be needed for these days too.

Jon Miller

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm afraid to start again...but I'll agree, that I kind of like the set up...but thats all i'll say!! :wink:

 

[Dan Cook]

One thing I like better about this week is that even though, in my area, storms are forcasted pretty much every day this week, the probability is less than 40% up until Thursday, which might mean a better chance for the sun to warm things up.

 

[David Draun]

It looks awesome, but maybe we shouldn't hype up the event, lol. I have very high temps forecast for my area all week, possibly mid 70's. That could mean something, but that's all I'll say.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

We are all going to DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is all I have to say about that. Just kidding, I like it too, even though it has hints of looking like the last system. I don't like the 850 wanting to veer ahead of this one again. Gulf ridge looked to be further east for this one, so that might add some to the hope side. Waiting for now. Bet it's a Friday show though.

 

[Robert Dewey]

My current bet is that it will be a wind event, and it will be further east since the trough doesn't look like it will dig nearly as deep as the last one... Perhaps us folks around the Great Lakes region may have something (cough, cough, BUST, LOL)...

Also giving areas further east some hope, is the fact that this storm will actually be deepening as it moves towards Lake Superior, vs. opening up like the last wave did. AND neutrally tilted/slightly positively tilted systems seem to support more severe weather (vs. negatively tilted) over this region for a couple of reasons:

1) If they are negatively tilted, they usually go from CO to ND and weaken OR the front usually looses it's definition/runs out of steam
2) Positively/neutrally tilted troughs allow for a S to SW flows across the Great Lakes region (WI/MI/IN/OH/IL), which typically give better moisture transport from the Gulf, vs. a southeasterly flow, which brings in drier and cooler air...

This is all speculative of course ....

 

[Bob Hartig]

I hope you're right (except for it's being just a wind event!)--I'd love one last blast before the snows fly. Can't wait to see how things shape up during the course of the week.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Interesting AFD

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTCENTRAL WISCONSIN. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY.

This is an excerpt from GRB's AFD today. Friday 10/29 would be the last day of CPC's "widespread outbreak". Although it only says "small chance" of severe storms, in my experience it's rare for an NWS office to EVER bring in mention of severe this far out unless something big appears to be in the offing. Even on August 24 this year, when SPC had all of WI in a 25% line on the SWODY3, MKX made no mention of severe in the AFD or HWO. On 8-25, when SPC put all of WI in MDT risk on both Day 2 outlooks, they did not bring in "Severe Tstms" wording on the forecast until the afternoon. Then it busted and everything was out west in IA on 8/26.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

My Bad

Whoops...that excerpt was from the HWO, not the AFD. Here is the AFD: MIGHT HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY WITH A STORM SYSTEM PRETTY SIMILAR TO
THE ONE THAT CAME THROUGH YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IS THE GFS IS CORRECT

Well maybe this one will actually DO SOMETHING! Especially if it's not overcast all day.

 

[Dan Christianson]

WHOEVER STARTED this thread ....... Were Jinxed now, it seems the weather knwos when were on her case" lol




Better see something , i was sick of seeing clouds all day with this last system!


Mike H : got an 8 ball we can get answers from?

 

[Scott Olson]

As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

a severe weather outbreak is likely in the middle of the country when one of the short waves interacts with a deep flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

[Robert Dewey]

As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

Easy, take a look at the last event :lol:

I sure hope they are right though, because whatever happens out in the Midwest, will likely make it into the Great Lakes, since this low will actually be deepening, whereas the last system was filling in...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I really like Friday's chances. As of now anyways...as we all know very well by now...things are going to change over the week. However, as of right now, I really like the way things look over western Illinois and Iowa, down into Missouri and eastern Oklahoma. Only thing I really hope for is that previous period precip doesnt ruin things like last time...and we end up getting enough heating. Instability was a big pain Friday...so, everyone get your fans ready to blow that stupid stratodeck out of here.

 

[Dan Cook]

As hard as I try to not get to excited about this week, how can I hold back when the Climate Prediction Center uses language like this...

Easy, take a look at the last event :lol:

I sure hope they are right though, because whatever happens out in the Midwest, will likely make it into the Great Lakes, since this low will actually be deepening, whereas the last system was filling in...

But did the CPC mention outbreak? :wink:

 

[Tony Laubach]

I'm not going to hold my breath for Friday cause I know for a fact I can't push my luck with work again. In any case, may bear watching now since I have stated I'll likely be working during this.. may end up being a game-time decision if it so happens, but I'm not going to keep trotting away Fridays; but it'll be in the back of my head just in case. Especially if things look exciting and that darned cloud deck can move on!