10/20/04 FCST: Plains

Dec 11, 2003
Denton, Texas
12Z GFS shows a strong system moving into the Central Plains on Wednesday with instabilities sufficient for severe storms. A bit far out to fine-tune anything but the last few runs seem to show the orientation of the trough becoming more favorable for supercells along and near the intersection of a warm front and dryline.
The 12z GFS from today looks mighty interesting. Very strong kinematics (80-100 kt 250 mb winds) are progged to juxtapose with at least moderate instability. GFS puts the triple point in NC Oklahoma with a warm front extending northeast from the low and a dryline extending south through C. Oklahoma. In addition to this, a very strong low level jet is forecast to form (on the order of 40 kts) by early Wednesday evening. The GFS tends to be a bit fast, so I wouldn't be surprised if the area of interest shifts a bit west. I am definitely optimistic about this one since Tds are already near 70 F along the Gulf coast.