10/17/07 NOW: TX/OK/KS/MO/AR/NE

[Mike Peregrine]

New MD for possible upcoming tor-watch covering almost the entire state of Missouri ... from KC up to the Iowa line - down to the Arkansas line. Only the bootheel and extreme NW Missouri excluded: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2096.html

Watches extend from just south of KC all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. That tor-warning near Warrensburg still has me baffled. It was in the leading edge of a line. Wonder if it was actually for straightline wind, rather than tornado. The line was looking quite bowed in that area at the time.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

That tor-warning near Warrensburg still has me baffled. It was in the leading edge of of line. Wonder if it was actually for straightline wind, rather than tornado. The line was looking quite bowed in that area at the time.

It was actually for the northern end of a bow in the line, where vortices tend to form when tornadoes are associated with bow echoes.

 

[Brandon Clement]

isolated cell on the red river well NW of Dallas is looking pretty healthy and...its DISCRETE! this one has the potential to get pretty rocky if it can remain isolated!

This cell is still looking pretty healthy and is beginning to show some weak rotation. It is a very small cell but other than that looks to be quite healthy.

Also it is moving into a much better environment for rotation.

 

[Heidi Farrar]

Right now in northcentral AR, the radar appears clear over my area but yet there is a fine drizzle coming down, due I'm sure to the fact that the atmosphere is so saturated that it can't hold the moisture any longer. 71 degrees and 99% humidity will do that. New tornado watch was issued for this area a short time ago; winds continue to strengthen out of the sse.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

I'm anxious to see how things develop over Missouri this evening and overnight. The environment is rapidly becoming more favorable for supercells. Pockets of sunshine are developing all over the state at the moment. Troy, MO is currently getting sunlight, I know Rolla was reporting it earlier, etc, etc.

I think the 4-state region will explode within the next few hrs per the Supercell Composite, Sig. Tornado, and Craven/Brooks Sig. Severe.

 

[Brandon Clement]

The cell in southern Ok just went tor warned.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

It was actually for the northern end of a bow in the line, where vortices tend to form when tornadoes are associated with bow echoes.

Well, it's on the map ... EAX is showing a report of a tornado near Warrensburg. Wild ... that thing is still warned. I would have never picked it looking at radar -

The tail end charlie near Nevada also continues to be SVR warned ... looks to be getting more favorable down that way too.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

of course I no more than posted something about the sun coming out here and moments later we were overtaken by some screaming low clouds and thick drizzle. We will see if things keep building or if they will die off with the cooling of the evening.

 

[Martin North]

How much daylight do you have left for heating...surely only an hour or so...?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The cell southeast of Joplin is tor-warned and looking very healthy. That supercell has the whole area to itself and has the potential for very long track - nothing ahead or behind it for miles and miles. Would love to see what's going on underneath that monster right now.

Daylight is quickly failing - - this looks to become a primarily nocturnal event at this point to me.

 

[Martin North]

Yeah...but convection is really getting it's act together in Missouri now...

The main line itself looks like it could bow out at anytime...

 

[Terry Tyler]

MS

MD issued in westen mississippi for the possible issuance of a tornado WW...

SRH values in excess of 200 M2/S2, but still...some pityful instability profiles...

ive visibly seen alot of mis-shapen clouds around here...way elevated, but still...they have some 'shape' to em, and move really fast...

it looks like a nocturnal event here...might have to go into AL tomorow...

 

[Martin North]

There has been reasonable circulation within that embedded cell in Chariton Co, MO for a fair while now.

Fair chance that is a tornado.

 

[Kevin Crawmer]

Wow, my mom just called and said she was in debris of a tornado by Aurora, MO (on accident). Aurora is SW of Springfield. She saw the thing on the ground and then got in a downpour. Her tornado count for the year is officially higher than mine now. Go figure.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

I believe it. If that storm hasn't had a tornado, I'd be shocked. I've been going back and forth on its path, and wondering what's going to happen as it gets closer to Springfield. At first I thought Nixa was more in line, but now it's looking more like it's headed north of Springfield. It's had some strange motions as I've watched it -

The cell near Nevada really is getting its act together too. Looking a lot like a supercell to me -

Edit: tornado warning on the cell south of Nevada now as well. Very bumpy ride in store for central/southern Missouri this evening.