10/17/07 NOW: TX/OK/KS/MO/AR/NE

[Eddie Natenberg]

I feel the latest RUC based on the SPC meso analysis is very poorly handling the shortwave the caused the first line of storms to form, therefore I am having trouble deciding when the subsidence associated with this feature will move off the dryline. Obviously there is enough surface convergence to allow storms to form (like now), but I don't see big tornado potential for at least another hour (I could be wrong about this). Does anyone else want to give there 2 cents about the next upper level forcing mechanism, I am hoping its another shortwave that moves off the axis of the trough and not the trough axis with mega DPVA that is the forcing. This could cause to much upstream growth. Also the new WW that came out, I was expecting a PDS for C OK, so does anyone have any ideas why the SPC did not go PDS? Just curious, I still think that 850 flow isn't that bad yet. And the clearing should help increase instability.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Some neat looking shelf action up here in the storms moving over downtown - -

The LCLs must be crazy low ... this thing was barely hanging off the ground as it came over. I'm sure the building tops were in contact with the cloud base. Pitch black outside right now ... can't see a thing.

http://flickr.com/photos/44401566@N00/1602687709/

http://flickr.com/photos/44401566@N00/1602687743/

http://flickr.com/photo_zoom.gne?id=1604026440&size=o

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Still sitting in OKC. We decided to stay put instead of going to Chickasha. We'll sit back and wait on the storms to come to us. A few discrete cells are going up just SW of us now. I'm going to pick the one with unimpeded inflow and we should be in business. This one that just went up looks like it should track right over OKC.

 

[Evan Stubbart]

Storm heading toward OKC just got sever warned. I think they are going to miss OKC just to the West and North.

Edit- it looks like there is some rotation in the storm now just due west of OKC. Is anyone else seeing this?
As for the rest of the storms to the north- it appears a line is forming but discrete cells are holding strong in it, but I think this is going to reduce the chance of Tor. in the OK area. We still have a couple hours of daylight, but I'm thinking the risk is more north and east overnight.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Warrensburg, MO is under the gun. Tornado warning issued on the line that came through here earlier - - looks to track right over town at this point. Strange, embedded cell -

 

[Kevin Statler2]

wonder when we're gonna get a tornado warning out of OK...im waiting! lol

 

[Terry Tyler]

MS

man, what a drag here in N MS right now...

judging from the timing of this thing, it looks like it wont get into my area till later tonight...

there is not a whole lot of instability around here right now (1000MLCAPE) and the shear hasnt really kicked in...

the conditions start to look good when you go W of lee county...there are a couple nice clusters out there, but i really dont like the large amount of storms in the area...dont look like well see any discrete cells around here...

but like i said, all the good conditions are west of us, and should be moving in...

 

[Scott Lincoln]

On radar it is really looking like the 3 storms on the southern end of the line in Central Oklahoma are getting more organized. Even with the super-res data from the NOP3 radar testbed site it is hard to make out any areas of particularly strong shear, but that could change as the storms intensify.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

Hook echo on storm in Kingfisher County. Weak couplet too. Watching for a wall cloud.

-andrew

 

[Marc Remillard]

Another weak couplet with the storm on Edmond

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I dont think I see the hook that you are referring to, nor a couplet. The closest thing I've seen to a hook recently was on the storm near Edmond in northern Oklahoma County, but it didn't particularly strong rotation at the surface.

As of the latest scan (2116 UTC) GR2Analyst has put a TVS on the Edmond storm, but so far only on the super-res data from NOP3.

 

[Justin Bailey]

i know it doesnt belong in this thread...but has anybody else noticed the tornado warned supercell in central indiana?

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Looking at these storms out my window here at work I can tell you they just don't look impressive at all -- very soft and ragged and flying off to the NE....very low-topped as well. I think Shane's worries earlier about having too much shear with too little instability might have come to fruition in this part of OK.

Looking to my west I still notice a few turkeys trying to get going but they just can't seem to overcome whatever it is pulling them apart. This has been the trend for the last hour.

 

[Justin Bailey]

isolated cell on the red river well NW of Dallas is looking pretty healthy and...its DISCRETE! this one has the potential to get pretty rocky if it can remain isolated!

 

[Scott Lincoln]

The storms in central OK seem like they are trying to get their act together, but they dont have access to alot of instability. Thats probably why we are seeing some wall clouds on these storms off/on, but most of the tornado warnings have been east of OK where the 0-1km SRH is higher.