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10/17/07 NOW: TX/OK/KS/MO/AR/NE

on the road

I'm in Colby, KS headed for Hays or Wakeeney, then south. Might be chasing before daylight as well from the looks of current conditions. Pressure on my station is 989.5 and falling; dewpoint at 57 and climbing; 61 deg temp. I'm targeting the KS/OK border for now - ruc 18z lfq of the jet looks good for mid day with better looking sfc temps and cloud break. Trying to pinpoint the dryline though expect it'll be on the move anyway. I'm sure I'll be making some adjustments to this plan.
Could be quite an interesting mid-Oct. day!
 
Guys, I know it's unusual that we have forecasting and nowcasting going on for the same day this early. Make sure you get your forecasts in the FCST thread and your nowcasts in the NOWCAST thread please.
 
KWTV in OKC has just relayed a report from the Kingfisher County sheriff's office stating that a tornado has been sighted south of Kingfisher. SRVEL 1 showed a brief, but relatively strong rotational signature between Dover and Kingfisher between 9:10 and 9:15 a.m.

Gabe
 
A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

TUL is being bullish..
 
just took a look at the latest spc mesoanalysis and SW OK is really looking good. cu field is developing quite nicely along the dryline, which is much better defined than 2 hrs ago. SBCAPE is 1500 j/kg in SC OK out ahead of the developing cu field. i was quite surprised to see the most unstable air sitting directly under the cloud deck just south of all the "crapvection". Imagine what will happen if we get a little sunshine to touch this area!!!
 
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Dewpoints in my corner of the north-central Arkansas Ozarks are insane - 71 degrees! Winds out of the south are increasing, but there is also a blob of convection heading up from the south. Just more juice for later, I suppose. :eek:
 
Blue skies popping out here in Norman at 1:25p. The cloud deck has quickly eroded during the past hour which I think will lead to some pre-initiation heating. This could set the stage for an interesting event this afternoon.
 
i've got to go to class now and dont get out til 4. i cant wait to see what things look like when i get out! things are rapidly clearing across OK, TX, MO, and AR and are really starting to look good for this afternoon! good luck to all and be safe out there today!
 
Sun is out here in Collin county TX, (north Dallas). Looks like the cap is winning so far. I can't chase far from home today so I'm hopeing (very wishfully) something pops just north of here. At least if something does get organized around here it's likely to be more isolated than storms farther north...Anyone else watching or willing to speculate on the north TX area?
 
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Here in Stillwater: Me and some buddies plan to head out to the OKC area later today after we see initiation along the dryline, we will intercept there.


hoping for some supercells!

good luck and be safe today
 
I'm holding steady here in Moore, awaiting eventual development to my west and SW. A small storm has already begun to develop in far eastern Wa****a county, and according to Channel 4 it appears to be rapidly intensifying. However, the shear parameters appear to be better further SW in Caddo, Grady, and Comanche counties. 0-6 kilometer shear vectors are more favorably oriented relative to the dryline bulge the further south you go as well.

Edit: LOL, the software blanked out Wash_ita county
 
New line of storms forming in western OK - but they are already in a line which should reduce the odds of this being a major tornado system...
 
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