10/06/04 FCST: Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas

[mikegeukes]

Slight Risk for Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas on Wednesday
Large hail and winds are the main threats along with isolated tornadoes.

CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND/OR LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM INTO SWRN TX.

THOUGH MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /I.E. 30-35 KTS AT 500 MB/...THE PRESENCE OF SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Feel free to post your discussions below.

Mike

 

[Robert Dewey]

SPC has a pretty good hail threat in that area... 25% with a hatched region. Tornado threat is only at 2%, so I doubt many chasers will jump on this event soley to go and get hail damage...

Still could be some good storm structure though, and given my record here in MI... I would definately chase down there, :lol:

 

[Kevin Walter]

I would have liked to have seen some of those storms in south-central NM yesterday. Since I have some free time today, I may just head down there and see what happens. That area is beautiful, if we get a nice looking storm, it will be worth the trip (and we're based out of LBB, so it's not that far).

SPC has lowered their hail risk, which is fine with me. Low level cloudiness remains, but it clears up south of I-20, so the best instability may be limited to there if that cloudiness trend remains.

Cheers.