09L: Hurricane Ike

[Darren Addy]

Just for a historical perspective and to satisfy my curiosity about how Ike might behave if it moves over a large portion of Cuba, I looked up some data on hurricane Frederic which hit the central gulf coast in Sept., 1979.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/frederic/prelim08.gif

This is very interesting. What would be illuminating would be to know where the highs and lows were for Frederic's path over Cuba and beyond. After all, a hurricanes path is largely the result of the steering forces at work. Is there any way to get that historic information for early Sept. 1979?

 

[cdcollura]

Good day,

Each advisory moves Ike left and more left on the track. So much for the right turn into FL and east of there a couple of days ago ;-(

Moving across Cuba will certainly weaken Ike, possible even dissapating it altogether. If it pulls more north, then it has a chance for another GOM monster storm. With the leftward pattern, Texas looks like a candidate for this one by the end of next week.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I am keeping an eye on this system! If the HPC cone becomes realized and is close on current timing, I plan to intercept this storm as it makes landfall towards the end of next week.

It looks really good tonight on IR imagery. Just a waiting game at this point. As long as it is a Cat. 2 or stronger with a good chance of a diurnal landfall then I'm in!

Good luck to all who plan to intercept. It will be interesting to see how everything plays out over the next week.

 

[MClarkson]

Yes... definetly looking very good. A more symetrical CDO... cloud tops could be a little colder but are cooling. The eye is beginning to clear out on IR. The only thing not good is the restricted outflow to the north. The storm is making due without it though, and I doubt it has stopped strengthening since the last plane departed. That would lead me to believe we have <940mb storm now or very soon. Cuba will not kill that deep circulation completely, and then it will have warm waters and good upper level support. Both the GFS and EURO show a pretty solid anti-cyclone above the GOM in the 4+ day timeframe. Both these large-grid-square global models that normally cant resolve the inner workings of a hurricane still indicate a fairly deep area of low pressure... a suggestion that a powerful storm is inevitable. The 00z GFS has come into better agreement with the EURO and the hurricane specific models about driving the storm west through the gulf oil fields towards Texas.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Off Topic
Brian - about Chasing in Cuba - All I needed was a Cuban Tourist Visa however this takes 4 days to arrange so I am out of time. I was looking at this on Friday but the weekend meant that I could not get the visa until Thursday - too late!
Cuba is actually a big vacation location for us Brits – I have never been, but by and large it is safe – overall no more risky than some of the other Caribbean islands. After Gustav and now Ike I am going to apply for the visa – just in case I need it in the future.
On Topic.
Right now it seems that the Global models latch on too the fact that Ike will not diminish over Cuba – in fact the models now bring Ike into the GOM where it grows into a Monster – the eventual track *seems* to be towards Texas – but I have little confidence in this due to the poor performance of the models 5 – 7 days out.

One other scenario that I think is possible is a track across Cuba than then towards the Yucatan. If it is Mexico than I will be there in a flash – no visa required.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Is there any way to get that historic information for early Sept. 1979?

The best information I've found after doing a quick search are a series of pages from the NHC on Frederic...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/frederic/

There's not as much information on synoptic conditions on Frederic as I'd like to see.

As of now, it looks like Ike will take a more northerly course across Cuba than Frederic did in '79. After interacting with land, it will be interesting to see if Ike can re-intensify as quickly as Frederic.

 

[Darren Addy]

Haven't read your link yet (thanks!) but from the graphic linked earlier, it appears that Frederic was nothing more than a tropical depression until it reached westernmost Cuba where it then rapidly intensified to a tropical storm and then a hurricane. Ike, on the other hand, will already be a strong hurricane when it meets up with Cuba. I fear for the toll on human life in Cuba.

 

[HAltschule]

Moving across Cuba will certainly weaken Ike, possible even dissapating it altogether.

I highly doubt that Ike would dissipate altogether while over Cuba. Given the current forward motion at 13 MPH and the fact that it is a 135 MPH hurricane...the system would have to remain over Cuba for at least 36 hours or so before it would weaken below TD status. I know there is no real study as to the length of time a system has to remain over Cuba before weakening, but i would expect it would take a long time to weaken a 135 MPH hurricane that much. Now, weaken to CAT 1 strength, yes, much more reasonable to expect.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/gfsUS.850spd.html

Cool loop from the regular ol gfs, kind of cool to watch. Thing has been making a beast out of Ike in the gulf.

 

[Robert Dewey]

http://weather.cod.edu/loops/gfsUS.850spd.html

Cool loop from the regular ol gfs, kind of cool to watch. Thing has been making a beast out of Ike in the gulf.

Not just the Gulf... the GFS keeps it rather intense as it becomes extra-tropical and races through the MS Valley and Great Lakes.

 

[B Ozanne]

Gustav crossed over the flattest, narrowest part of Cuba just a week ago and got totally destroyed.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Gustav crossed over the flattest, narrowest part of Cuba just a week ago and got totally destroyed.

And Ike will be hurt also. The NHC has it down to 65kts over Cuba. But the conditions after it enters the gulf will be much more favorable for redevelopement than with Gustav. Much less shear and slower forward speed to give it time to rebuild. Back to 100kts in 5 days and wont make landfall for 7 giving it 2 more days to go higher. It will spend more time over warmer waters. It will still be building as it makes landfall instead of weakening.

 

[Marc Austin]

I couldn't help but notice a wobble to the north on satellite imagery. This may keep Ike over water a little longer than the current NHC forecast track does. Also, while the majority of models are still taking Ike westward towards TX in the coming week, a couple of the models are now hinting at a turn northward into AL or the FL panhandle.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I belive that is wnw movment is just a wobble - I have seen many times Hurricanes "screw" to the right as they intensify - I belive that Ike will now actually be intensify again after the brioef interaction with land 8 hours ago. Right now I do expect a W course to resume..

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Ike, on the other hand, will already be a strong hurricane when it meets up with Cuba. I fear for the toll on human life in Cuba.

I agree with you 100%. Ike will be much stronger coming off the coast of Cuba than Frederic was. Cuba will take a toll on Ike, but I've got a feeling it will come off the island at maybe Cat 1 intensity. I'm concerned about the toll it will take on the folks in Cuba as well. The western portion took a good hammering from Gustav. I have no idea what kind of emergency management/evacuation scenarios their govt. has, so for now I guess we can just hope for the best.