09L: Hurricane Ike

[Darren Addy]

Thanks for the link Stuart — I had not been aware of this theory.

Just to be precise, the link seems to indicate that the Hebert boxes are a good indicator of hurricanes striking the Florida "peninsula" or "south Florida".

I find it odd that Hebert never seemed to have this "discovery" published in a scientific journal. I can find no references to it on any .edu site and only one reference on a .gov site. (a recently published journal that references the same "Hurricanecity" link as its source).

Here's also a nice graphic via Wikipedia:

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Dennis is correct (my bad - my ears are still full of water after Gustav!!!)

Ike is currently located at 23.5 North, 58.0 West (estimate) which is well North of the HEBERT Box 1 Not a single models show that Ike will dive below 20N which is the top most limit of the HB1

Again my bad for feeding false information (sorry) !!

 

[Warren Faidley]

The 18z models are in serious agreement in the track of Ike, taking it into the Miami area early next week as a Cat 3-4 hurricane. (ATM).

W.

 

[rdale]

The 18z models are in serious agreement in the track of Ike

What changed between 12Z and 18Z to make the models do that?

 

[Marc Austin]

Not sure, I suppose the earlier model runs saw that Hannah would create a weakness in the ridge enough for Ike to recurve out to sea following a similar path, but I guess the ridge is going to be stronger than forecast and will keep Ike on a more westward to WNWwd track. I knew the new projected path must take it close to a populous city when I read this:

ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS
BECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.

I guess they don't want anyone thinking Andrew all over again.
This will be interesting to watch. It still looks very impressive.

 

[rdale]

They've put that in every bulletin...

 

[Marc Austin]

I don't remember seeing it in the last one I read, but it would make sense that they would. Until the latest runs, most models were predicting a sooner turn northward, so I assumed they included it because of the new projected path, which puts it a couple hundred miles off the coast near Miami. Of course no one knows where it will end up, but if you're just an average person from Miami, it might be a little disheartening.

 

[Darren Addy]

Step 1: Buy this and your property insurance before next Tuesday:
http://cgi.ebay.com/Key-West-House-...ryZ15841QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Step 2: ?
Step 3: PROFIT!

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Step 1: Buy this and your property insurance before next Tuesday:
http://cgi.ebay.com/Key-West-House-...ryZ15841QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem
Step 2: ?
Step 3: PROFIT!

price: US $995,000.00
No payments until 2009 - new eBay MasterCard

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

And what a deal. No payments until 2009 when you buy with your Ebay MasterCard. That is one heck of a credit limit on that card.

 

[Paul Austin]

Nice Eye has reemerged. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in intensity on next advisory.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Per latest model forecasts (which have been in decent agreement just rather inconsistent) it's interesting how the models after splitting Cuba and S FL curve IKE quickly North and a few models even hint at a potential landfall near Tampa Bay, an area that hasn't been hit in a long while. I recall hearing somewhere that Tampa has grown exponentially since the last significant hurricane impact, and that much of the area is highly susceptible to storm surge. Plenty of time to watch, and for models to come up with completely different solutions, it's just one of many interesting and potentially devastating scenarios.

 

[Chris Allington]

Nice Eye has reemerged. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bump in intensity on next advisory.

Also, on the earlier advisory the NHC was saying the eyewall was open to the North but on the last few frames of infared when that eye has reappeared the strongest/ coldest tops seem to be north and west of the center. Also, its resumed a more westerly rather than SWrly motion in the past few frames. Interesting indeed.

 

[HAltschule]

The new 00z models show a further south track for Ike. Most models now move Ike pretty much inland over Central Cuba. These same models also track Ike from West to East thru the middle of the country (Cuba). Only a few models bring the Hurricane over the Florida straights of Florida/near or south of Key West. The majority of the models, some of which are usually more reliable, have trended further south over Cuba. Intensity forecasts seem to be steady around the upper CAT 2 to lower CAT 3 range through the period...which is surprising given that many models have the system over Cuba. If that materializes, then I am failry certain that some weakening will occur.

 

[Darren Addy]

Not sure what you mean by "most" models. Looking this spaghetti model chart, the majority seem to have the eye grazing the northern shore of Cuba. (Of course this means the southern half of the storm will be over land). But only three models have it very much south of that line. Even if it is disrupted by Cuba, it has a lot of time and warm water between it and the coast.

Looks like it still has a shot at "threading the needle" like Rita and saying over mostly warm water into the Gulf. Ike could be our whopper of the year.

EDIT per discussion of Sat. morning, regarding after it gets past Cuba:

LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

The 0Z models are all over the place with the GFS and EURO wanting to take the storm waaay out into the central Gulf (Euro takes it right into the TexMex border if you take it out into the fantasy beyond-5-day-range), the HWRF (and consensus) making a charge a New Orleans, and the GFDL aiming for the Florida panhandle. How the NHC makes heads or tails of that beats me; maybe it'll be another "split the middle" forecast. If that storm pops over the south-end of Cuba like some of those models forecast, I don't know what'll be left of Ike; those mountains won't be kind. The tracks that take it over the middle of Cuba would likely leave the storm quite in-tact for another landfall.