09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
Darren Addy
EF5
If you read the entire listing you saw that they have an outdoor webcam, which should prove interesting for as long as they have power (or gets overwhelmed by traffic):
http://corrihershowroom.axiscam.net:9554/view/index.shtml
http://corrihershowroom.axiscam.net:9554/view/index.shtml
HAltschule
EF5
My previous quote exactly: "Most models now move Ike pretty much inland over Central Cuba."
I don't see how what I said is any different than what you are saying. Most models DO move Ike pretty much inland over Cuba!! The spaghetti plot map you posted even shows this.
Is there something i am missing?
Robert Dewey
EF5
The image Darren posted has updated. The original image only showed three models tracking the center of Ike over central/southern Cuba. The updated image definitely shows a continuation in the southward trend by the other models.
Darren Addy
EF5
The spaghetti plot map I linked to has updated since I posted it and then showed only (as I said) three of the models with a center line south of Cuba's northernmost course. I was asking mainly because you seem to have a look at the updated models sooner than they are shown here: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
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HAltschule
EF5
The track models you are looking at contain only 13 models. The full NHC suite of models and ensembles is much more detailed than the map that was posted. The models and ensembles I looked at from 00z had over 40 different tracks associated with them...and most of those were over Cuba.
Marc Austin
EF4
All this talk of models and yet the cyclone rarely follows the model consensus. Did models project Fay's course across FL? Maybe roughly, but I'd say focusing entirely on models is not the best way to predict where a storm may end up. A couple of the more "accurate" models, or models that have verified more accurately in the past actually take Ike north of Cuba and into Western FL. It should be interesting to watch. I sure hope NO isn't under the gun again come early next week.
HAltschule
EF5
This site updates very rapidly but only has the 13 or so models. It is probably very similar to what you have but again..updates early.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
The other image i looked at that had the numerous models and ensemles was the weather overlay (.kmz files) that were linked last week. These are plotted right on the google earth maps. Did you download that by any chance? (They update just as fast and are a great way to compare the actual location per NHC versus the forecast tracks from a few hours earlier (6 hours in some cases), and in return, gives us an idea which models are verifying better).
FWIW, the models that were furthest south from the 12z models corresponded well to the actual 18z position. That is, it seems as though the southern track models had the best forecast positions...at least for this afternoon.
Hope this helps.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
The other image i looked at that had the numerous models and ensemles was the weather overlay (.kmz files) that were linked last week. These are plotted right on the google earth maps. Did you download that by any chance? (They update just as fast and are a great way to compare the actual location per NHC versus the forecast tracks from a few hours earlier (6 hours in some cases), and in return, gives us an idea which models are verifying better).
FWIW, the models that were furthest south from the 12z models corresponded well to the actual 18z position. That is, it seems as though the southern track models had the best forecast positions...at least for this afternoon.
Hope this helps.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
Those plots would be perfect if they just thew the UKMET in there. UKMET seems out to lunch on this storm, but it's often pretty useful.
Brian Barnes
EF1
Ike looks like certain doom for Cuba -- no matter which model you look at, the majority pretty much has the same run through Cuba and the official NHC track shows it moving over Cuba for nearly two full days and nearly every part of the country being hit with hurricane force winds. Not to mention the excessive rain, mudslides from the mountains and the impressive storm surge that should hit Cuba's north coast.
While thinking about all this, I started thinking about what a "interception" in Cuba might be like and then it hit me that british citizens can travel to Cuba.
So I have a question for those few British hurricane chasers that seem to enjoy intercepting hurricanes in the United States -- Have you considered going to Cuba to intercept a hurricane? After all, you could really "1-up" all of us Americans by doing so.
I'm just curious, especially since as an American, I really don't know that much about Cuba other than what I am fed by the American media. Would the Cuban Government allow you to do it? And if they would -- then why not go?
While thinking about all this, I started thinking about what a "interception" in Cuba might be like and then it hit me that british citizens can travel to Cuba.
So I have a question for those few British hurricane chasers that seem to enjoy intercepting hurricanes in the United States -- Have you considered going to Cuba to intercept a hurricane? After all, you could really "1-up" all of us Americans by doing so.
I'm just curious, especially since as an American, I really don't know that much about Cuba other than what I am fed by the American media. Would the Cuban Government allow you to do it? And if they would -- then why not go?
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I would not count S. Florida or the Keys out yet.
The last few IR loops show a good wobble west/NW although this may just be part of the main circulation reforming.
Ike still has two days to make a more northward adjustment and several models take it very close in. The eye does not have to make a direct hit on S. Florida to cause serious problems.
W.
The last few IR loops show a good wobble west/NW although this may just be part of the main circulation reforming.
Ike still has two days to make a more northward adjustment and several models take it very close in. The eye does not have to make a direct hit on S. Florida to cause serious problems.
W.
Brian Barnes
EF1
I'm in Key Largo now. ;-0 So, I haven't. But was just merely stating that Cuba is going to take the biggest whack of this thing and while I was deciding whether or not I was going to swim for it, I was wondering why the British guys don't do intercepts there.
Jeff Richardson
EF2
Just for a historical perspective and to satisfy my curiosity about how Ike might behave if it moves over a large portion of Cuba, I looked up some data on hurricane Frederic which hit the central gulf coast in Sept., 1979. In comparison to Ike, Frederic's track was a bit further south but it did make landfall on the eastern tip of Cuba, move west along and just south of the island, enter the gulf as a tropical storm with winds in the 45-50kts range, and finally made landfall at Dauphin Island, AL as a Cat 4 with 115kts and pressure between 952-943mb. I realize the atmospheric conditions, sea surface temps, etc. are very different, but the comparison in Frederic's path and Ike's possible path were interesting.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/frederic/prelim08.gif
IMHO, southern Florida and the Keys are still in danger, but if Ike travels over Cuba as many of the models and the NHC are forecasting, that doesn't mean that it'll get the wind knocked out of it. We all know that the gulf coast could be dealing with a significant and potentially very dangerous storm at landfall.
Just my two cents. :-D
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1979-prelim/frederic/prelim08.gif
IMHO, southern Florida and the Keys are still in danger, but if Ike travels over Cuba as many of the models and the NHC are forecasting, that doesn't mean that it'll get the wind knocked out of it. We all know that the gulf coast could be dealing with a significant and potentially very dangerous storm at landfall.
Just my two cents. :-D
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HAltschule
EF5
I do beleive Ike will affect and pass over Cuba, maintain or slightly weaken, and then restrengthen over the gulf. While the Florida Keys could get some fringe effect from the hurricane, i would not expect too much...except maybe for Key West...they could see some hurricane force winds again. Based on the setup and the track consensus, it seems to me that the Northern Gulf Coast will be in big trouble again. Thinsg could change but there is a majority of consensus amongst the models that bring Ike there (LA, MS, AL).
In fact, did anyone notice the 18z GFS....landfall over the Central Lousiana as a CAT 4-5 over the same exact place that Gustav made landfall. What a deal that would be. (And i never thought i would see those yahoos in Houma, LA with their streaming beerfest again)
And...AVNI model shows winds of 160 KNOTS at the surface in 120 hours. Ouch. This model is an outlier and I hope that its wrong.
EDIT: Just about ALL of the new 00Z models bring Ike over central Cuba and into the G.O.M. They also turn Ike more westward in the central Gulf as opposed to the N or NW movement the 18z models had. Seems as though the trend with this storm will be further south and further west, Interesting.
In fact, did anyone notice the 18z GFS....landfall over the Central Lousiana as a CAT 4-5 over the same exact place that Gustav made landfall. What a deal that would be. (And i never thought i would see those yahoos in Houma, LA with their streaming beerfest again)
And...AVNI model shows winds of 160 KNOTS at the surface in 120 hours. Ouch. This model is an outlier and I hope that its wrong.
EDIT: Just about ALL of the new 00Z models bring Ike over central Cuba and into the G.O.M. They also turn Ike more westward in the central Gulf as opposed to the N or NW movement the 18z models had. Seems as though the trend with this storm will be further south and further west, Interesting.
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Ryan McGinnis
EF5
AVNI is actually the between-runs GFS model.
