jeremy wilson
I agree Mike. Gustav affected Hanna the same way and it just seems logical that the same would happen to ike. Tropical experts please way in.
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09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
Stuart Robinson
EF5
OT: Chat (sorry mods)
I am not putting too much faith in the forecast track models until rekcon has investigated Ike on Friday. However after returning back to the UK today I will be turning right around and moving towards Flordia? *If* Ike track takes him this way. This has yet to be resolved.
I am not putting too much faith in the forecast track models until rekcon has investigated Ike on Friday. However after returning back to the UK today I will be turning right around and moving towards Flordia? *If* Ike track takes him this way. This has yet to be resolved.
Paul Austin
Max winds up to 145:
Cat 1 to strong Cat 4 in less than 24 hours! The last advisory I had checked (around 5pm yesterday) until this morning had Ike at 80mph max sustained. Imagine my surprise this morning. I know it's not likely to maintain, but it's impressive nonetheless. I guess the "COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR" quoted from NHC's discussion on Ike yesterday was apropriate. I think the surface cooling/upwelling from Hanna will have a pronounced effect on Ike, provided the current forecast track even verifies. Since we're talking about the gulf stream, the effect might not be dramatic, but the atmospheric effects possibly weigh in as well. This far out it's anyone's guess.
Cat 1 to strong Cat 4 in less than 24 hours! The last advisory I had checked (around 5pm yesterday) until this morning had Ike at 80mph max sustained. Imagine my surprise this morning. I know it's not likely to maintain, but it's impressive nonetheless. I guess the "COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR" quoted from NHC's discussion on Ike yesterday was apropriate. I think the surface cooling/upwelling from Hanna will have a pronounced effect on Ike, provided the current forecast track even verifies. Since we're talking about the gulf stream, the effect might not be dramatic, but the atmospheric effects possibly weigh in as well. This far out it's anyone's guess.
Charles Kuster
EF4
I am thinking that the outflow of Hannah will not have much of an effect on Ike. Hannah is much weaker than Gustav and it is going to be racing up the east coast away from Ike by Saturday. Right now I just don't see the same kind of outflow "channel" (large area of strong 300mb winds moving away from Gustav and southeast towards Hannah) that Gustav had a few days ago. Ike should feel some shear over the next two days and weaken, but this is northeasterly shear created by a strengthening high pressure NE of Ike. However, I am relatively inexperienced when it comes to hurricane forecasting and not sure about this, so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong about the outflow.
I totally agree that Hannah could have an effect on the path of Ike, depending on the extent of the weakness in the ridge. This should be interesting to watch!
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cdcollura
EF5
Good day all,
Ike is impressive this morning indeed, and undergone explosive deepening during the night diurnal cycle on 9-3 to 9-4. This is an extremely dangerous storm, which is fortunately over open water affecting only shipping routes, whales, and fish right now ;-)
The track is very important, as great uncertainty exists 4-5 days out. Two things could happen, the storm can respond to the high, move a bit WSW at days 2-3, then get near FL, bend WNW and strike the state. Second, the storm can continue W or WNW then turn sharply to the right and miss FL and maybe nab the Carolinas (or even recurve out to sea altogether) after days 4-5. The latter scenario, in my opinion, seems more likely at this time.
Hanna, which IMO looks like --- right now in terms of organization, is a very large and nearly subtropical / hybrid cyclone. There is basically no core, just a large gale envelope surrounding the storm (35-60 MPH winds). Finally, Hanna is making the much anticipated move to the NNW and NW. Hanna should keep a low-pressure trough in its wake, creating a weakness in the Atlantic / Bermuda high pressure area, which should essentially spare the US Se coast (and FL) from Ike. How much this high pressure (behind Hanna) build back in is the big ? mark.
Josephine should remain at sea.
Ike is impressive this morning indeed, and undergone explosive deepening during the night diurnal cycle on 9-3 to 9-4. This is an extremely dangerous storm, which is fortunately over open water affecting only shipping routes, whales, and fish right now ;-)
The track is very important, as great uncertainty exists 4-5 days out. Two things could happen, the storm can respond to the high, move a bit WSW at days 2-3, then get near FL, bend WNW and strike the state. Second, the storm can continue W or WNW then turn sharply to the right and miss FL and maybe nab the Carolinas (or even recurve out to sea altogether) after days 4-5. The latter scenario, in my opinion, seems more likely at this time.
Hanna, which IMO looks like --- right now in terms of organization, is a very large and nearly subtropical / hybrid cyclone. There is basically no core, just a large gale envelope surrounding the storm (35-60 MPH winds). Finally, Hanna is making the much anticipated move to the NNW and NW. Hanna should keep a low-pressure trough in its wake, creating a weakness in the Atlantic / Bermuda high pressure area, which should essentially spare the US Se coast (and FL) from Ike. How much this high pressure (behind Hanna) build back in is the big ? mark.
Josephine should remain at sea.
HAltschule
EF5
A couple of things stand out to me with the forecast of Ike. One is that Hanna will be creating/has created a break in the ridge that should be sufficent to allow a more northerly component (NW movement) of the storm later on in the period as Ike approaches the Bahamas. Of course, i don't expect this to occur until Ike gets closer to the Turks and Caicos Islands/Puerto Rico/ Bahamas which will be closer to where Hanna and its associated troffy pattern will be. I should also mention that a very strong trof in the northeastern U.S. will also be moving in as Ike nears the Bahamas and this certainly would also favor a turn to the NW or North inm the vicinity of the Bahamas.
The next thing that is interesting is the fact that buoys and ship observations as of 11:00 AM EDT indicate that SST's are only about 77-78 degrees across a good part of the TROAL north of the Turks, Puerto Rico and Cuba...all as a result of major upwelling of water from Hanna. So, theoretically, Ike should maintain or lose some intensity as he moves over these 'cooler' waters. I would still expect Ike to be a powerful hurricane unless strong shear takes its toll.
Lastly, as NHC states, it is interesting to see the 2 different camps of track forecasts amongst the models. I'm sure they will come into more agreement in a day or so as more G4 missions are flown and dropsondes are dropped.
The next thing that is interesting is the fact that buoys and ship observations as of 11:00 AM EDT indicate that SST's are only about 77-78 degrees across a good part of the TROAL north of the Turks, Puerto Rico and Cuba...all as a result of major upwelling of water from Hanna. So, theoretically, Ike should maintain or lose some intensity as he moves over these 'cooler' waters. I would still expect Ike to be a powerful hurricane unless strong shear takes its toll.
Lastly, as NHC states, it is interesting to see the 2 different camps of track forecasts amongst the models. I'm sure they will come into more agreement in a day or so as more G4 missions are flown and dropsondes are dropped.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
NASA must be very confident that Ike will curve out to sea, as they are in the process of rolling out the shuttle Atlantis to the pad today.
W.
W.
Darren Addy
EF5
Ike is big and strong enough now that it is probably not going to be to badly affected by a little shear. It's creating its own environment now. Unless you are on an island in its path, the waiting game right now is for where it is going to be on Day 5 and 6. If it turns up the east coast it will be moving into progressively cooler waters, which should mean weakening before hitting (or grazing?) the U.S. East Coast. There is a chance that it won't bend north and in that case Floridians should be stocking up on plywood and drinking water. Worst case scenario would be if it takes the path of Karina. You'll recall that traversed Florida before reentering the Gulf's warm waters and intensifying before slamming north into the Gulf coast.
Talking with McGinnis last night, he said it would be really interesting if Ike would "thread the needle" and pass between Florida and Cuba on its way into the Gulf. What past hurricanes have pulled that little trick? Rita was one:
Talking with McGinnis last night, he said it would be really interesting if Ike would "thread the needle" and pass between Florida and Cuba on its way into the Gulf. What past hurricanes have pulled that little trick? Rita was one:
HAltschule
EF5
When is it scheduled to launch? I'd be more concerned with Hanna first and then Ike. If Hanna is in North Carolina or Virginia Friday morning, then they could get the all clear for a Friday departure...which would be well before Ike arrives (IF Ike arrives). Interesting nonetheless that they will even create and risk by putting it out there in elements should something go wrong with the forecast. We all know that that has never happened.
Jason Harris
EF5
Shuttle Launch is scheduled for Oct. 8. Reported on the news this morning here on the "space coast."
They seem to just be thinking of Hanna right now, and the way was clear:
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/HQ_M08169_Atlantis_move_to_pad.html
They seem to just be thinking of Hanna right now, and the way was clear:
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2008/sep/HQ_M08169_Atlantis_move_to_pad.html
Warren Faidley
Supporter
They might have a slight window of opportunity to launch through the eye! ......lol
W.
rdale
EF5
No - the holdup was Hanna. They only need 72 hours to roll things back - so plenty of time to worry about Ike. Better to start processing for the launch and change plans if needed later, rather than hold up the launch.
Due to Fay's impact on HST payload processing at KSC, 10-11th looks more likely as a launch date per http://nasaspaceflight.com
They'd roll her back to the VAB if winds > 50kts are ever in the outlook within 72 hours. She can handle quite a bit on the pad, but if winds get too high then the protection of the VAB is desired.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
Wow... the TPC just added a bunch of new satellite products to the list. The "funktop" loop is really interesting.
W.
W.
Stuart Robinson
EF5
The Models still don't know yet where Ike will go - However most models agree that Ike will pass through the "Herbert Box" Statistically 9/10 Storms that pass through the box will make landfall in Florida
Some info on the Herbert Box theory..
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Some info on the Herbert Box theory..
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Dennis Sherrod
EF5
Maybe I am missing something, but these areas are well south of where Ike is and will pass, at the very least, north of Hebert #1.
To go through # 1, Ike would have to make a hard turn to the Southwest within the next several hours.
I also do not see how it can turn that far south either under the current conditions to go through Hebert #2.
And just an FYI, these are Hebert Boxes, not Herbert Boxes.
To go through # 1, Ike would have to make a hard turn to the Southwest within the next several hours.
I also do not see how it can turn that far south either under the current conditions to go through Hebert #2.
And just an FYI, these are Hebert Boxes, not Herbert Boxes.
