09L: Hurricane Ike

[Chad Cowan]

Gustav crossed over the flattest, narrowest part of Cuba just a week ago and got totally destroyed.

Not true; the w'rn part of Cuba where Gustav passed over is pretty mountainous.

 

[Brian Barnes]

Its going to be a long night in western Cuba. Historically, nobody has dealt with hurricanes better than Cuba. Or, at least that is what they want us to believe. They said that they had no deaths as a result from Gustav, and rejected the US Gov's offer of aid. They also tear up our monthly rent checks for gitmo...

But, I do remember several years back when a humanitarian relief effort and a boat full of food was delivered by the US to Cuba and they accepted it. I can't remember which storm it was, it may have been Hur. Dennis. Cuba does usually accept China's offers of aid relief though, and the Chinese have oil platforms and leases with Cuba to drill in Cuban waters (not too far from the Florida Keys)...

In any event - Cuba is going to be very hard hit and one way or another the American dollar will find its way to them to help them recover. I hope that wasn't too political...

 

[MClarkson]

Ike has a deep but very small circulation. Cuba wont kill it completely, but i would expect a TS to emerge into the gulf and not a hurricane. As long as some circulation survives, Ike's slow movement in the gulf gives it plenty of time to intensify under good upper level support.

 

[HAltschule]

I'm surprised so many think it will go below hurricane strength. FWIW, only 2 of the 12 models that have intensity forecast charts weaken Ike to TS status. The thing everyone needs to remember is that Ike is a 120 MPH hurricane and is well organized and moving at a decent speed. These factors suggest that Ike will survive and restrengthen...

Ike has a deep but very small circulation.

I respectfully and completely disagree. The circulation of Ike seems similar to normal sized hurricanes and appears quite impressive on IR images. The eye is large and in charge and significant convection is present in all quadrants.

 

[B Ozanne]

Not true; the w'rn part of Cuba where Gustav passed over is pretty mountainous.

We're splitting hairs here. If I had to carry a boat across Cuba it would probably be where Gustave crossed. Besides, the viewing of topographical maps of Cuba is embargoed in the US.

I'm on the tropical storm bandwagon when Ike re-emerges. Maybe not 40mph, but borderline Cat 1. Take a look at that dry air getting sucked in on the south side of the storm.

 

[MClarkson]

Its pretty small. The entire CDO is around a degree and a half wide. The eye appears ~10nm wide on IR sat. The latest NHC update states that winds extend a little further outward than its satellite appearence might otherwise suggest, but still is smaller than average for a major hurricane. Obviously in the storms favor though, <950mb doesnt go away overnight, no matter how tight the circulation is.

 

[Brian Barnes]

The latest GFDL run is pretty interesting -- it brings Ike off Cuba further west than previous runs. It also puts it on a "Gustav" like track - first hitting Key West and N/NW and then inland in central LA as a Cat 3 storm.

 

[Warren Faidley]

The main model averages used by the TPC have been very accurate this year in regards to hurricanes, even with wobbles and momentary off tracking. The crazy outsiders can be dismissed. It looks like a Texas, LA strike area, once again in a crummy place to chase with the exception of Galveston. Ike still has a long way to go, and just like the original forecast had it going into Miami, the route can change quite a lot in 2-3 days. I **think** the current straight line route will not hold up, as huricanes like to follow non-linier weather features -- with odds of a more northern turn at some point in the next 2-4 days.

W.

(Treasure hunting in Vero Beach, FL).

 

[Brian Barnes]

As of 11pm, NHC's new update shows hurricane force winds from "coast to coast" while traveling over most of the country and emerging from Cuba with 85 mph sustained winds in about 40 hours.

 

[Marc Austin]

Its pretty small. The latest NHC update states that winds extend a little further outward than its satellite appearence might otherwise suggest, but still is smaller than average for a major hurricane. Obviously in the storms favor though, <950mb doesnt go away overnight, no matter how tight the circulation is.

I don't think size is really an issue here. Charley was a small hurricane that devastated Punta Gorda, FL back in 2004 with category 4 winds. Not all major hurricanes are monsters. I'm not sure what the "average" size of a hurricane is, but, as the saying goes, size doesn't matter. I think the only role size would play in regard to hurricanes is their ability to organize. Smaller storms seem to organize more rapidly in favorable conditions and can go through rapid intensification cycles more easily than larger storms. I'd say the models are being conservative with regard to Ike's intensity after re-emergence into the GoM. I could see a tropical storm/minimal hurricane after Cuba, but I would suspect the storm could easily regain cat3/4 strength within a couple of days. I would never say that the circulation will be entirely destroyed. That's practically irresponsible. I remember people saying that about Gustav after it's respit over Haiti, and while it wasn't a category 4 storm, it still packed a punch. Storms of this magnitude are resilient and don't usually die off so quickly. I just hope this dodges New Orleans, they don't need another storm.

 

[rdale]

METARs about 35 miles south of the center are reporting 25-35kt sustained winds.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I remember people saying that about Gustav after it's respit over Haiti, and while it wasn't a category 4 storm, it still packed a punch. Storms of this magnitude are resilient and don't usually die off so quickly. I just hope this dodges New Orleans, they don't need another storm.

Gustav spent how long over land? The official forecast has Ike over land for 24-36 hours, which is a long time, much, much longer than Gustav spent over land. Several storms that spent a good bit of time over land in the past year or two come to mind, including Ernesto (2006) and Olga (2007). Granted, Ike is starting from a much higher intensity, but my thinking is more in line with MClarkson's -- strong TS or weak Cat 1 when it leaves Cuba (assuming the official forecast holds). If Ike can manage to move offshore sooner, then it's likely that it will do so in a more intense state (which is relatively obvious). Ike looks to have quite a bit of time over the GoM after it emerges from Cuba, so this is not say that Ike isn't going to be a again major hurricane before the US landfall either.

 

[Joel Wright]

I think what's most important is how the environment in the gulf is after Ike emerges from Cuba. If the environment is as good as what some of the models are showing, then it may not matter how weakened Ike gets over Cuba. We've all seen how incredibly explosive tropical systems can be once they enter the gulf into a favorable setup.

With it being the peak time for tropical systems, the very warm waters waiting in the gulf, and apparently very favorable upper air pattern later this week, this could spell very rapid intensification.

It may not matter how much Ike weakens over Cuba, as to just how favorable for reintensification it will be later this weak.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

The 06z operational GFS is now more in line with TX/LA after stalling just off shore for a couple days. The OGFS likes to spit out some fancy solutions. One of the runs had Fay paralleling the Gulf coast all the way to Brownsville. Back to present reality, Ike has invaded Cuba and maintained nearly due west heading all night and is left of the TPC track. All the model guidance suggests a northern component is imminent but the storm thus far has other ideas. It looks like Ike will hit the water sooner than later. Perhaps Ike gathers enough pop to knock Castro out of his bed should it eventually make that turn toward Havana. A long ways out yet but one cannot help but see Houston in the middle of the TPC cone.

 

[Nedra Headen]

I'm waiting to see what it does when it leaves Cuba as my husband may arrive in Houston just about the same time that Ike comes ashore. It still looks more like Houston to me than New Orleans. Originally I thought it was going to run up the east coast, but that's no longer very likely.