09L: Hurricane Ike

[HAltschule]

The 12z Models are coming in and none of them weaken Ike below CAT 1 strength while over Cuba. The majority of these models indicate Ike as a CAT 2 Hurricane that approaches the NE coast of Texas. A few models have landfall over SW Lousiana coastline.

Looks like NE Texas coast (Galveston) may be the place to be.

 

[Darren Addy]

The IR loop of the last hour and a half shows Ike has begun a NW climb, hugging the shoreline over land (just as it appeared to be ready to break out over water to Cuba's south). If it maintains this heading (a BIG "if") the eye could be over land for a good long time and future forecasts should indicate a greater weakening than first indicated. I agree with everyone that is saying that Ike will have ample time to recover however, once in the Gulf.

 

[Robert Dewey]

It certainly looks like it will take the long route over Cuba... I agree with most, and suspect we'll see Ike as a strong TS once it emerges into the Gulf. With conditions remaining favorable thereafter, I think it will re-strengthen rather rapidly.

 

[David Douglas]

It looks like the center is offshore again. Ike sure is hugging the left side of the guidance models.

 

[David Douglas]

The Houston forecast office put the following statement in their forecast discussion this morning. I'm not sure why it's a valid statement.

LOOKING BACK AT THE HURRICANE HISTORIES IF YOU SORT THE
SYSTEMS FROM CAT 1 TO CAT 5 AND RUN ALL OF THEM THROUGH THE
CORRIDOR THAT IKE HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH (ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TIP
OF CUBA TO 60W AND FROM 20-25N AND AUG-SEP TIMEFRAME THE NUMBER
THAT COME TO THE WESTERN GULF IS SMALL. OUT OF 129 THAT GO THROUGH
THAT BOX ONLY 7 IMPACT INTO LA/TX SIGNIFICANTLY...MAKING THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK A LOWER PROBABILITY

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I don't know why they felt the need to add that. I never like when climatological patterns are used to forecast in current weather situations. I doubt that many of those hurricanes that did or did not affect the TX/LA area had conditions exactly like what Ike is experiencing so how is it relevant? I know climatology/experience helps with forecasting hurricanes and it should be taken into account but I don't see any point in putting it in a forecast discussion either. People will read that and think the NWS doesn't think there is much chance of it hitting TX/LA...which seems to be indeed what they are thinking.

 

[Adam Penney]

Boy, that statement there from the Houston office is just brilliant. Do they not remember that forecast discussions are public knowledge? To me this says, well since they didn't come this way before, they CERTAINLY won't this time. So seriously everyone, go ahead and forget about Ike. Go on and put your guard down, because obviously the NHC's forecast track is smoking the good stuff today. Im guessing history must always stay the same huh? I just think they could be sending the wrong message here.

 

[Darren Addy]

I've got mixed feelings about their statement. Looking at historical data can be illuminating (as with the Hebert Boxes that we discussed earlier) but I agree that it is the synoptic conditions that drive the hurricane's path and previous paths do not necessarily have any connection to the synoptic conditions driving this one.

I guess I would like it better if they said that "forecasts that far out are subject to a great deal of change, but stay alert to further updates" rather than saying that historical data lowers this storm's path forecast reliability. As written, the statement seems to have been dictated more by the needs of the Houston Chamber of Commerce than the public's need to know.

 

[rdale]

The part that was cut off - he's sticking with the current NHC forecast. I see no problem at all in stating that climo has odds against. He isn't saying it won't. He isn't saying it never happened before. Look at the people who use the Hebert box to indicate that Ike wouldn't hit south Florida? Those appear to have been better at forecasting Ike's track, since 1) he didn't hit south Florida and 2) the forecasts using live data indicated a direct hit.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

The part that was cut off - he's sticking with the current NHC forecast. I see no problem at all in stating that climo has odds against. He isn't saying it won't. He isn't saying it never happened before. Look at the people who use the Hebert box to indicate that Ike wouldn't hit south Florida? Those appear to have been better at forecasting Ike's track, since 1) he didn't hit south Florida and 2) the forecasts using live data indicated a direct hit.

I read through just a bit of the Hebert box discussions and thought the same thing about that. Its just climatological data and it shouldn't have much impact on the forecasts. I imagine that according to the Hebert box theory that Ike should have been off of North Carolina right now? Right?

 

[rdale]

I imagine that according to the Hebert box theory that Ike should have been off of North Carolina right now? Right?

No - using the Hebert box: "When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida."

Ike missed the box - and missed Florida - but forecasts said it would hit Florida.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

No - using the Hebert box: "When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida."

Ike missed the box - and missed Florida - but forecasts said it would hit Florida.

Ok well I am assuming that since Ike passed NORTH of the Eastern Hebert box according to it and climatology (which its obviously based on) Ike should not be where it is currently. It should be near Bermuda probably..certainly not back into the Caribbean after traveling due west or wsw.. Ike may have missed the box but the forecasters were way closer to where Ike is than where the Hebert Boxes assumed it should/would be.

 

[rdale]

Ok well I am assuming that since Ike passed NORTH of the Eastern Hebert box according to it and climatology (which its obviously based on) Ike should not be where it is currently.

I'm not sure I understand how you are interpreting things... I'd suggest re-reading the Hebert Box explainer. It is not a tool to forecast storm path.

Ike may have missed the box but the forecasters were way closer to where Ike is than where the Hebert Boxes assumed it should/would be.

Hmmm... absolutely wrong. The Hebert box simply said it wasn't going to hit Florida. NHC (and Key West evacuators ) said it would.

I'd give a few points to the Hebert Box on that one. And if climo can work in that regards, I don't understand how you can throw it out when it comes to a Texas hit.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Well, the latest recon data suggest that Ike is at most a Cat 1 hurricane, and perhaps even a tropical storm. That minimum pressure reported was 970mb, but maximum FL winds were only 63 kts, which would suggest only a Tropical Storm. There probably are higher winds that weren't sampled, but I find it highly unlikely that Ike is anything greater than a Cat 1 right now, and this is despite having moved over water again. Ike is likely to move back over Cuba this evening. So, unless there is a big burst of convection near the center, I can't imagine Ike will be anything other than a minimal Cat 1 or (more likely IMO) a tropical storm when it emerges into the GoM. If the inner core is as disrupted as the VORTEX message suggests to me, then it may take a while for Ike to reorganize and get its inner core back in line necessary for more significant intensification. Perhaps some are "spoiled" by seeing the tropical systems move over the swampy areas of southwestern Florida without much decrease in intensity (), but we've seen several times this year that tropical cyclones spending anything more than 6-8 hours over land can weaken significantly.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

It is not a tool to forecast storm path.

I couldn't agree more!