09L: Hurricane Ike

[ABlaser]

corpus christi has several chase locations that might be worth considering. there is a parking garage downtown (believe it's connected with the omni hotel) with an excellent view of the bay, the only problem would be finding a spot in garage on opposite side of the hotel as its almost all glass on the outside.

there are some "higher" spots near the town of ingleside (north side of CC bay), this is also where a navy or coast guard maintiance facility lies too, so there would be people to hopefully help you if you get into trouble.

you don't want to be in aransas pass, although there is a barrier island in front of you, it is very exposed to the elements with buildings of questionable construction.

the south side of CC, or more explicitly, north padre island, would be very exposed to storm surge, a strong surge would likely overtake highway 361. also, the jfk memorial bridge over oso bay would be shut down in strong winds. this area is not reccommended.

 

[Darren Addy]

Ike's eye says "adios" to Cuba. I'm curious to see how rapidly this puppy intensifies now that it is leaving land behind.

NHC discussion is interesting, praising the performance of the ECMWF on Ike thus far and how it forecasts a right turn on Day 4 in response to a shortwave trough coming out of the Rockies.

 

[Angie Norris]

Looks like Ike has survived the trip across Cuba. Winds are down to 65 kt and pressure is up to 970mb. Center of circulation is about over water again, so time will tell. As close as I can tell, SSTs off the coast of Cuba are only about 27 C, but as he gets further into the Gulf, the SSTs look closer to the 28-29 C range. I'm wondering if this will be enough to support significant restrenthening. Thoughts, opinions?

Anybody know of a different site for SSTs? I've been using the link on NHC, but the shading makes it a bit difficult to see.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Anybody know of a different site for SSTs? I've been using the link on NHC, but the shading makes it a bit difficult to see.

My site of choice is at http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html ... You can click on "Gulf of Mexico" on the left to get a more zoomed-in view. Note that the link contains graphics to TCHP, SST, and depth of 26C isotherm. FWIW, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) graphics suggest that the best chance of an uber-storm may be as the storm approaches western GoM -> http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL . Of course, things are not static, and it looks like wind shear may increase a bit as the storm nears the TX coast, so who knows.

 

[rdale]

Anybody know of a different site for SSTs?

TCHP is a better measure - and it doesn't look that impressive...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

 

[jladue]

Seriously this storm appears ready for rapid intensification. This storm was running across CUBA holding its own intensity. It created a small core when the storm was just barely offshore. Now the storm is leaving for open waters with an excellent outflow pattern. I expect the storm will continue to suffer the lingering bad effects of its overland transit for another 6 hours and then by this evening I wouldn't be surprised to see an explosion of convection around its core. I don't expect a bursting pattern like with small cyclones but perhaps something similar to Gustav after leaving Jamaica.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

It looks like as of the 5 PM EDT advisory that Ike will be picked up by the trough that has been seen by the RUC and GFS models earlier this morning. Things could definitely get interesting around here.

 

[Warren Faidley]

It looks like as of the 5 PM EDT advisory that Ike will be picked up by the trough that has been seen by the RUC and GFS models earlier this morning. Things could definitely get interesting around here.

Yea, it will be interesting to see when and how fast that trough picks it up and moves it north. Timing is going to be quite tricky. IR looks like Ike is poised to rapidly intensify.

W.

(Afterburners lit and heading to Galveston).

 

[Chris Lott]

A lot of you probably know about this website, but I like it a lot for looking at the forecast models, track, wind probabilities ,etc. it's not as good as some but still has a lot of info.

http://www.stormpulse.com/

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

(Afterburners lit and heading to Galveston).

It that you or the storm heading to Galveston? I did not see but one model out of 15 heading at Galveston.

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Seriously considering a SE Texas chase on this one, flying into Austin on Thursday evening for this end-of-week / weekend chase.

Ike has a more right-ward "lean" to its track now, so points from S Padre to Houston may be in a lot of trouble should rapid / explosive deepening take place in GOM.

The storm looks very impressive after being over land (Cuba) for so long as of Tue evening.

 

[Chris Allington]

Key West's current OB is pretty interesting as well as the rain band just off shore there. Gust's to 59 MPH. The long range reflectivity off of that site is interesting and pretty telling to Ike's structure. The eyewall is very well defined on the loop for being so far away. IR imagery shows deeper convection developing in the eyewall region once again.

 

[B Ozanne]

Key West's current OB is pretty interesting as well as the rain band just off shore there. Gust's to 59 MPH. The long range reflectivity off of that site is interesting and pretty telling to Ike's structure. The eyewall is very well defined on the loop for being so far away. IR imagery shows deeper convection developing in the eyewall region once again.

I was looking at Key West around noon and they were sustained at 40mph gusting to 60mph back then. I heard they had a few gusts over 70mph.

 

[rdale]

Seriously this storm appears ready for rapid intensification.

Great call Jim! It formed an eye and wrapped up in a HURRY this evening...

 

[jeremy wilson]

Wow!! Rapid is right. Ikes gonna get big and bad quick if it keeps this up!