09L: Hurricane Ike

[Darren Addy]

Forgive the OT, but this might be a good time to review the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (91 minute Google Video). (Book version: Isaac's Storm.) If nothing else, it is a great lesson in how far we/meteorology have/has come in 108 years.

Galveston may end up being north of Ike's landfall, but I'm getting the feeling that it isn't going to be by much.

 

[Angie Norris]

Looking at the 0300Z data, Ike looks to be trying to get his act back together...pressure's down 3mb to 967 and wind is up to 70kt. He's got a good tight eye on satellite and convection is developing nicely. If I had to call a target, I'm currently looking at the Victoria/Refugio area (unfortunately I'll be stuck at work, though).

I think it would be interesting to intercept a storm in Galveston just because of the history of the city.

 

[Robert Dewey]

TCHP is a better measure - and it doesn't look that impressive...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html

Perhaps not that impressive, however 1) TCHP has been increasing over the past several days, and 2) TCHP values were similar / slightly lower than what was in the Gulf whilst Ike gained CAT 4 intensity.

Not that impressive, but still... I do not think water temperatures should be much impedance for strengthening... and Ike certainly won't have to cross the amount of cold TCHP that Gustav had to deal with on its way to LA.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

I had a feeling that Ike would exit Cuba as a CAT 1 storm...but had no idea it would maintain such good structure as it passed over the island. The latest water vapor loop looks very impressive with a well defined but small eye. The next three days should be really interesting.

And I do recommend Isacc's Storm for those who haven't read it. It's a great read.

 

[MClarkson]

Im thinking Ike is going to recycle this little eye after a bit of intensification and then form a large one(and rapidly intensifying as that main eye forms)... and become the massive lumbering surge storm the global models suggest.


Heat content... Depth of the 26C isotherm... even to a lesser degree pure SST readings dont matter as much as outflow. Its all about the outflow. Any of the waters in Ikes path are hot enough and can support a category 5 storm with the proper outflow. And outflow is progged to be pretty good for next few days. Some shear may develop during its last day before landfall... but the surge it developes in the central gulf will not dissipate quickely.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Looks like Brazoria County, TX (just south of the Houston Metro Area) has posted a "limited mandatory evacuation" for parts of their county. The evacuation will begin at at 10 a.m. and only includes residents who live within the 77541 ZIP code. This includes Freeport, Surfside Beach, Quintana, and all coastal residences. Galveston has already begun discussing a voluntary evacuation of its lower west end but has yet to issue one.

Emergency management officials said they decided to make the evacuation call on account of the uncertain path of Hurricane Ike. Adams described the day leading up to the evacuation order as “frustrating.”
“We just couldn't get enough specific information to make a guaranteed call,” he said. Although the models seem to be pointing more to a Port O'conner to Corpus Cristi the fact that they are still in the cone prompted the order.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080909_tnt_hurricane_ike_houston.5ba5b003.html


The county school system has yet to make up their minds whether or not to cancel classes.

 

[George Kourounis]

Well I've already chased Ike...
Here's my blog post from last night:
[SIZE=+1]Sept. 09 2008 - [/SIZE]Somewhere Over Cuba- Okay, that was cool. Getting the chance to fly with the famous "Hurricane Hunters" of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the U.S. Air Force Reserve was a dream come true for me. The mission today was to fly out to Hurricane Ike and see exactly where the center of the storm was located and how intense it was after passing over the mountains of Cuba. When we finally got out to the storm, it became clear that the eye was still over land in Cuba and we had to get permission from the Cubans to fly over their air space. When the eye eventually moved back out over water, we started to notice it taking on a much more organized shape. This indicated that the storm was beginning to re-strengthen now that it was back over warm water.

Throughout the day, we criss-crossed the storm, dropping instrumented probes called dropsondes. These devices measure wind speed & direction as well as the air temperature and humidity. The ride did get a little bumpy as we flew through the eyewall but it wasn't as bad as I was expecting it to be and my notorious stomach had no problems today. The planes used by the 53rd Squadron are WC-130J Hercules, specially set up for weather recon. The flight crew consisted of 5 members: a pilot, co pilot, navigator, a dropsonde loader and an aerial reconnaissance weather officer. The data they collect is relayed to the National Hurricane Center in Miami where the meteorologists there use it to help determine where these storms are headed and how strong they might become.

I want to extend my sincere thanks to the men & women of the 53rd Squadron for the opportunity to ride with them. It was an honour. Here are a few photos for now, I'll be adding more of them when I get the chance. Now that I'm back on the ground in Biloxi, my attention turns to a ground based intercept of Hurricane Ike when it finally comes ashore in Texas in a few days...

George Kourounis
www.stormchaser.ca

 

[HAltschule]

Cool deal, George. I look forward to seeing the rest of the photos. I was supposed to fly with the HH's in Katrina but that got bagged at the last minute. Looking back, i'm not so sure that was a bad thing as my stomach would have been in a bad place and my fear of major turbulence would have been off the charts. I'd prefer flying into a CAT 1 then a CAT 5. Lol.

 

[rdale]

Great call Jim! It formed an eye and wrapped up in a HURRY this evening...

Well guess the rapid part didn't last too long... Not looking much better today.

 

[Marc Austin]

Well guess the rapid part didn't last too long... Not looking much better today.

Yeah, I think it's still slowly strengthening, but it's putting more of it's energy into expanding. it seems like the overall size has increased while the CoC has become somewhat closed. It also looks to be encountering some light shear from the NW? Outflow doesn't look as good in the NW quadrant as it did a few hours ago. Was the storm forecast to slow down as much as it has? I thought this might have an eventual effect on where Ike come ashore. I think Ike will get an eye in the next 12 hours. Only time will tell...

 

[Darren Addy]

Wow, that is terrific George! What an opportunity/privilege! Thanks for passing along your report.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

George - Can you tell me how long the flight takes? I have a friend who is flying with them on Thursday over Ike - He then has a monster drive to Corpus to meet up with me - He seems to think that the flight is between 8 - 12 hours?

 

[Paul Redmond]

Well this mornings predictions has it approaching the texas coast as a cat 3. However the possiblity of it being a cat 4 or even 5 is still in the realm of possibilties. Present models indicate that the eye will pass north of San Antonio. Thats reassuring to those who live in San antonio, such as myself, but I am concerned about the likelyhood of cat 1 or cat 2 winds that far inland, not the mention serious flooding. At least I live on high ground, but I am concerned if its too late to board up windows. I lack a ladder, have a bad back, and have a two floor house, ugh.



Also a reminder to anyone chasing in south texas, dangerous flash flooding will be an issue to contend with. Please be carefull out there. I feel it necessary to remind all readers that the hill country and southern parts of texas are among the more flash flood prone areas of the country.

SO BE CAREFULL OUT THERE

PS: That was very impressive George. Thank you.

 

[Darren Addy]

I've never experienced a hurricane, but while your first thoughts may go to windows (etc.) I would recommend you first cast a critical eye to the electrical line that comes from the pole to your house. If there are branches over or near that and your house's line to the grid is severed, you could be without power for a good long time. Your line from the pole to the house will be lowest on the list of the electrical company's priorities once the storm has passed. They will be interested in repairing the grid (their lines) first. Only after all that is done will they turn attention to individual homes (and who knows how far the list your house will be). They don't have a great deal of sympathy for property owners who have not maintained trees around their power lines, (if Texas is anything at all like Nebraska).

I learned this when we had our New Years ice storm (2007) it was the lack of electricity that caused the greatest inconvenience (especially for rural areas whose very water supply/pumps depended upon it). Gas-powered generators were in extremely high demand.

With a hurricane your immediate concern should be your own trees, but that doesn't mean a branch from a neighbors can't be blown sideways and cause problems, too. You have no idea how many weak branches there are in your community's trees (rot, etc.) but it will certainly be illuminated by high winds (such as those associated with outflow or hurricanes).

You've got time to evaluate your home property insurance (and deductibles?) also.

 

[Paul Redmond]

Hey, good points. First most of the electrical service in my area, including my house, is underground. Trees though, thats a different story. I have a sickly hackberry leaning way from the house in back and two live oaks leaning over the house. The live oaks are sturdy trees, not known to go root ball up at the first gust. Hackberrys however are fragile overblown weeds with no strength. It will be interesting. The latest tracks seem to indicate that Ike will travel further north and east. So I may only be dealing with tropical storm force winds, and that most of the rains 6-10 inches will be east of the I35 corridor, and the Austin may get more of it. But then again tracks can change at the last minute.

If it tracks north and east, I may just do some chasing up I35, while being very very carefull. If its closer to home, then I will play it safe and stay put.