09L: Hurricane Ike

[rdale]

I couldn't agree more!

Call me confused

I imagine that according to the Hebert box theory that Ike should have been off of North Carolina right now? Right?

You are incorrect. The Hebert box is not used to determine if a storm is going to hit NC. It's related to Florida. Only. If a storm doesn't pass through the box, using that theory, it won't hit Florida. The storm did not pass through the box. If you wanted to forecast using that box, you would have been correct. Had you based your data on NHC, you were wrong.

 

[Jim Leonard]

No - using the Hebert box: "When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida."

Ike missed the box - and missed Florida - but forecasts said it would hit Florida.

One should remember hurricane Ike took a real unusual track. You could probably count on one hand how many tropical cyclones took a track from the African westward all the way across the entire atlantic basin north of latitude 20 degrees over the last 200 years. So making statements that it is rare to get a storm to hit the Texas coast from this location is dangerous to relay to the general public. There is always a first time in the hurricane belt.
The Hebert box is will work with a tropical cyclone that are generally moving west or WNW not WSW like Ike tracking.

 

[Brian Emfinger]

I understand what the Hebert boxes area. They are an estimate (based on past hurricanes) of where the most likely areas that hurricanes would pass through in order to hit Florida. So they are based on climatology. The eastern box is where on average the Bermuda high (its average location) would tend to steer hurricanes through on their way to Florida. Anything north of that would tend to miss Florida to the north. I was just saying that since Ike did miss the box to the north according to the inferences presented by the Hebert Box that it should be somewhere between Bermuda and NC right now instead of back into the Caribbean. Its not that complicated of a theory.

 

[rdale]

But that's not the Hebert Box theory Make your own box if you like...

Jim - I'm not sure anyone is making any sort of statement to the public, as the rest of the AFD (cut off here) shows, they are going with NHC in their forecast products.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

You just have to see this BBC video of the Waves in Cuba - they are HUGE !!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7603319.stm

 

[Paul Austin]

Wow, thanks for posting that, Stuart. It appears those waves are hitting a sea wall, and that can enhance skyward motion, but the shear volume of water clearing the walls reveals the power and size of these waves. Pretty amazing video.

 

[al pietrycha]

For what it is worth, I've resumed a surface map floater for Ivan. As long as my sketchy internet provider is up, the map updates at :12 and :25 after each hour. I'll keep kick starting the map through CONUS landfall. Note, winds are in knots; slp in mb.

http://stormeyes.org/maps/sfchrcn.gif

--Al

 

[Darren Addy]

120 hr forecast now reaches landfall. Where is the question.
It's no longer going out on a big limb to say "Texas", but that's a long coastline!

Intensity forecasts looks pretty conservative, what with all that warm water and favorable upper air support in the offing.

 

[rdale]

That's what was said about Gustav too Pretty hard to get too specific with intensities (or even trends) at that timeframe.

 

[Sarah Austin]

Thanks for sharing the link to the huge waves Stuart Robinson. It's pretty amazing just how much strength water can have. There have been over 100 deaths in Cuba from Ike so far. Hopefully that number won't increase too much.

 

[Jason Young]

Wild video Stuart !!! Very sad
to hear of the death's , but anyone know how good the area in south Texas is for chaseing .

 

[Darren Addy]

Thanks for sharing the link to the huge waves Stuart Robinson. It's pretty amazing just how much strength water can have. There have been over 100 deaths in Cuba from Ike so far. Hopefully that number won't increase too much.

Where are you getting the 100 deaths number? As of 11:00 PM CDT, I'm seeing 4 reported. Now Haiti, that's a different story.

 

[MClarkson]

Jason, the South Texas area is not good at all for chasing. Its not quite as bad as the Louisiana swamps, but its pretty sparsely populated. If this storm comes onshore powerful, which appears likely, and therefore requiring chasers and their vehicles to be in or downwind of solid structures, there just arent many towns down there to choose from. There will be wide gaps in your ability to nail the eye or right-side eyewall.

 

[Jim Saueressig]

LOL, every time I ever went to the Houston area and it was just raining it was flooded..... I can see that being a chase issue...

 

[Jason Foster]

Arrgg....a Texas coast landfall (or will it be Mexico)

After viewing the Satellite images, and remembering what chasers in the past have said, almost any chase are of the Texas coast is around the cities.

Galveston, Freeport, And South Padre Island are about the only Barrier Island options. Go inland, and you can add Corpus Cristi, Port Lavaca, Palacios, Texas City (inland Galvaston), and Port Arthur (on the LA border). That's about it for good chase destinations. And some of these are questionable because of the road networks in and out. I think Hurricane Dolly proved the point regarding chase-ability in the southern Texas Gulf Coast areas. Good Luck to those who attempt it.