Adam Penney
EF1
As of the 2:00 P.M. EDT update from the NHC. Ike has now regained Cat 2 strength. Maximum sustained winds now up to 100mph.
09L: Hurricane Ike
- Thread starter Greg Blumberg
- Start date
rdale
EF5
Recon says max surface winds are 86mph, and max flight level winds at 90mph. So NHC says surface winds are SUSTAINED at 100mph? 'splain that to me Lucy...
Stuart Robinson
EF5
You are quoteing an old report - there was a dropsonde that reported SFC winds of 92knots
UZNT13 KNHC 101752
XXAA 60187 99241 70856 08145 99961 26800 15592 00850 ///// /////
92342 24800 17600 85087 22400 19577 70767 12800 21579 88999 77999
31313 09608 81732
61616 AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2418N08557W 1735 MBL WND 17096 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 19581 960707 WL150 16097 082 =
XXBB 60188 99241 70856 08145 00961 26800 11850 22400 22707 16800
33696 10600
21212 00961 15592 11951 16100 22945 16597 33938 17601 44925 17600
55918 18094 66902 18599 77882 19076 88870 19080 99850 19577 11696
21578
31313 09608 81732
61616 AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2418N08557W 1735 MBL WND 17096 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 19581 960707 WL150 16097 082 =
UZNT13 KNHC 101752
XXAA 60187 99241 70856 08145 99961 26800 15592 00850 ///// /////
92342 24800 17600 85087 22400 19577 70767 12800 21579 88999 77999
31313 09608 81732
61616 AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2418N08557W 1735 MBL WND 17096 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 19581 960707 WL150 16097 082 =
XXBB 60188 99241 70856 08145 00961 26800 11850 22400 22707 16800
33696 10600
21212 00961 15592 11951 16100 22945 16597 33938 17601 44925 17600
55918 18094 66902 18599 77882 19076 88870 19080 99850 19577 11696
21578
31313 09608 81732
61616 AF303 2009A IKE1 OB 05
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2418N08557W 1735 MBL WND 17096 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 19581 960707 WL150 16097 082 =
Brian Barnes
EF1
This is pretty cool.
In the loop current graphics for the past 30 days you can see the storm surge that Gustav made on Cuba's southern coast and then a very fast "disturbance" moving across the Atlantic, which was Ike as a Cat 4 that slams into Cuba.
What might even be more interesting for forecasting purposes is the loop current between Ike's present location and it's expected landfall target near Corpus Christi.
In the loop current graphics for the past 30 days you can see the storm surge that Gustav made on Cuba's southern coast and then a very fast "disturbance" moving across the Atlantic, which was Ike as a Cat 4 that slams into Cuba.
What might even be more interesting for forecasting purposes is the loop current between Ike's present location and it's expected landfall target near Corpus Christi.
Ed Boik
EF1
Ike has 3 warm eddies to pass over on its way to Texas. This outta be fun.
Edit: watching the water vapor loop you can see that a injection of drier air made it into the ciruclation. Towards the southern half of the storm, convection is filling the 'inlet' in. So I expect this entrainment was a short event and should not delay intensification for long.
On another note, where's the eye? It has been filled in for quite a while.
Edit: watching the water vapor loop you can see that a injection of drier air made it into the ciruclation. Towards the southern half of the storm, convection is filling the 'inlet' in. So I expect this entrainment was a short event and should not delay intensification for long.
On another note, where's the eye? It has been filled in for quite a while.
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Chris Hayes
EF5
With Corpus Christi a possible (probable?) target for Ike, when was the last hurricane to hit Corpus Christi? I dont know of any that have went in there in recent history. The population of CC is around 400,000 and it's right on the ocean. Makes me wonder, if having a cat 3-5 hurricane bearing down on them, how many people will head the warnings and evac. Not having a recent tropical history besides some near misses might have made many people fairly complacent.
rdale
EF5
1805Z VORTEX report - seems like it's pretty current...
Ryan Orlando
EF0
I've been looking at the models and they appear to have shifted northward once again due to Ike wobbling northward for an hour or so. The southernmost model has it going north of Corpus Christi and the majority is definitely between Galveston and Port O'Connor. Just a thought in case you are going to chase this hurricane. Whoever goes I wish them the best of luck.
Sam Sagnella
EF5
Y-IKE-S. While Ike appears to still be a tad bit ill from its voyage across Cuba, this storm has the 'look' of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. It remains very well organized, and has outflow that continues to be pretty darn impressive -- especially in the eastern semicircle. As noted above, there's really not much left to be desired as far as SST/TCHP are concerned; throw in the current low (almost non-existent) shear environment and we're really asking for trouble. I'd expect pressure to drop like a stone once the inner core becomes a little better established.
While it is easy to see that strengthening is quite likely, the track forecast is not as clear-cut...not by a long shot. Most of the models are in agreement that the ridge of high pressure will be eroded/move eastward enough to allow for an eventual sharp turn toward the north; exactly when that will occur is the $64,000 question. As the TPC mentioned in their earlier discussion, the models are tightly clustered through the early part of the forecast period, but diverge strongly thereafter. As it stands now, those living from CRP to GLS need to be preparing for a possible landfall.
Keep in mind that Ike is a large, and intensifying tropical cyclone, and TS force winds extend outward some 200 miles from the center -- most of the TX coast will feel the effects of this storm. Please stay tuned to local television and radio for updates and instructions on the situation; Ike will likely make landfall as a major hurricane.
While it is easy to see that strengthening is quite likely, the track forecast is not as clear-cut...not by a long shot. Most of the models are in agreement that the ridge of high pressure will be eroded/move eastward enough to allow for an eventual sharp turn toward the north; exactly when that will occur is the $64,000 question. As the TPC mentioned in their earlier discussion, the models are tightly clustered through the early part of the forecast period, but diverge strongly thereafter. As it stands now, those living from CRP to GLS need to be preparing for a possible landfall.
Keep in mind that Ike is a large, and intensifying tropical cyclone, and TS force winds extend outward some 200 miles from the center -- most of the TX coast will feel the effects of this storm. Please stay tuned to local television and radio for updates and instructions on the situation; Ike will likely make landfall as a major hurricane.
rdale
EF5
The 1909Z update says surface winds are 70knots... Something is getting lost in translations somewhere because this is yet another storm where interim reports are extreme, then the summaries are not. Any help?
Paul Redmond
EF2
Either way, if you live in San Antonio or Austin, be prepared for tropical storm to hurricane force winds. Yup its probably gonna be that strong inland.
Marc Austin
EF4
Looks like the models are starting to pick up on Ike's slower-than-forecast motion by a trend toward the north. Earlier we were looking at S TX, now it seems like the TX/LA border may still be in play. Once Ike deals with the dry air it's ingested over the last few hours, it should begin to strengthen fairly quickly. It still seems like the storm is larger than it was a day ago. Maybe it's just a trick of the eye.
It also looks to be moving more NNW than NW at this time.
It also looks to be moving more NNW than NW at this time.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
Visible satellite imagery indicates that Ike may be dealing with some dry air entrainment issues, as you can see a wedge of drier air wrapping around from the west through the south and into the northeast portion of the storm. That wedge of drier air (implied by relatively darkness in the visible sat imagery) looks quite similar to Ivan before IVan made landfall. In any case, I have to imagine that Ike will continue to moisten its environment (especially considering its large size), so, with relatively low shear, conditions should become more conducive to significant intensification soon. It is a bit odd to see such low winds with such low pressure. For quite some time, RECON was only finding Cat 1 winds (latest VDM notes 93 kt max FL winds), which was a tad surprising given the <962 mb central pressure. Of course, the relatively large size of Ike is likely lessening the local pressure gradient (similar perturbation pressure as some Cat 2-3 storms, but spread out over a larger area = weaker PGF), but it's still pretty interesting nonetheless.
Can anyone explain the primary forces that dictate the size of hurricanes? I'm not a tropical cyclone guru by any means, but I haven't read much about why some storms are small vs. why some are large. I can only assume size is a function of storm maturity (i.e. how "old" is the storm?), intensity, and upper-level outflow / environment... I 've noticed that a lot of intense hurricanes can start our relatively small but grow rather quickly, with some lag time between intensification and physical growth.
Can anyone explain the primary forces that dictate the size of hurricanes? I'm not a tropical cyclone guru by any means, but I haven't read much about why some storms are small vs. why some are large. I can only assume size is a function of storm maturity (i.e. how "old" is the storm?), intensity, and upper-level outflow / environment... I 've noticed that a lot of intense hurricanes can start our relatively small but grow rather quickly, with some lag time between intensification and physical growth.
MClarkson
EF5
superior outflow forecast: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_200_042s.gif
The euro is in pretty similar. The bit of shear that was progged just before landfall seems to have gone away from both models.
The euro is in pretty similar. The bit of shear that was progged just before landfall seems to have gone away from both models.
MClarkson
EF5
"I can only assume size is a function of storm maturity (i.e. how "old" is the storm?), "
That is exactly what I was going to say. I'll add that an old major hurricane, a storm that was once a major hurricane, will generally have a much larger wind field than an old TS. You can have a TS struggle for a week crossing the atlantic and its wind field may stay small, but I doubt you will find a small wind field a few days after a storm becomes a cat 3+.
That is exactly what I was going to say. I'll add that an old major hurricane, a storm that was once a major hurricane, will generally have a much larger wind field than an old TS. You can have a TS struggle for a week crossing the atlantic and its wind field may stay small, but I doubt you will find a small wind field a few days after a storm becomes a cat 3+.
