07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Justin Bailey]

thanks. i found it on mapmart.com as well. just took me a lil while. yall are fast ya know it! lol. elevation is only 10ft. should they be concerned about storm surge that far inland?

 

[Marc Austin]

If this storm surge model verifies, they probably should be:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_surge.html#a_topad

but again, this is reliant on many factors. This is also a very low resolution model. Does anyone have any links to more precise/higher res storm surge models?

 

[Paul Austin]

I agree with Tim and others about the track. I would put it right over or even a few miles east of the center of NO. But this assumes a continuous straight line and no wobbles. Dennis Sherrod is streaming from Hammond, which would seem to be nice intercept location for a track directly over NO.

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/stream.pl?username=dennis.sherrod&uid=21

 

[rdale]

Current eye is about 10-15 miles ENE of NHC's track, 130mi SE of the LA shoreline. SHould be MUCH earlier than NHC's latest forecast.

 

[Marc Austin]

Current eye is about 10-15 miles ENE of NHC's track, 130mi SE of the LA shoreline. SHould be MUCH earlier than NHC's latest forecast.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually agree with you Rob, and this looks to be much much worse for The Big Easy. The only good thing is that it hasn't strengthened significantly today, but it looks like it's trying to now. Unless it takes a turn west pretty soon, I don't see how NHC's track will verify. We'll see what the new advisory suggests about the storm motion/speed and see if they issue a newer track that puts it over SE LA by tomorrow morning.

 

[Philip Flory]

It looks a lot healthier this evening on SWIR than it did a few hours ago when I last looked. I agree that the NHC track appears to be slightly too left. The official forecast is calling for a gradual WNW turn but that isn't really happening yet. Im curious to see if Gustav maintains 3 or moves up to 4 before landfall as it appears the data is indacting Gustav is at least regaining legit significant status.

 

[Justin Bailey]

NHC has a storm surge forcast model up too if anybody else is interested

 

[Paul Austin]

If you look at the central dense overcast instead of trying to pinpoint the exact location of the center of circulation, the track clearly appears to turn more toward the north if anything over the last couple of hours. Look at a long loop and treat the center of the CDO as the center of circulation and track indicator. I know "appears" carries no empirical weight and the center of the CDO does not equal the center of circulation, but visually, it at least suggests a deviation from the NHC track. I'm not hanging my hat on it, but it's interesting nonetheless.

 

[rdale]

The entire eye is visible on LIX & MOB radars so it makes tracking much easier...

 

[Mike Smith]

NHC has a storm surge forcast model up too if anybody else is interested

What's the URL of NHC's surge forecast?

 

[Chris Allington]

If you look at the central dense overcast instead of trying to pinpoint the exact location of the center of circulation, the track clearly appears to turn more toward the north if anything over the last couple of hours. Look at a long loop and treat the center of the CDO as the center of circulation and track indicator. I know "appears" carries no empirical weight and the center of the CDO does not equal the center of circulation, but visually, it at least suggests a deviation from the NHC track. I'm not hanging my hat on it, but it's interesting nonetheless.

Noticed that also and thought it was interesting... it doesnt really appear to be a wobble either as the motion has continued for the better part of the evening. Almost as if the stronger burst of convection that closed off the eye wall made Gustav stand up to the shear a bit better and deviate a bit.

 

[Justin Bailey]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml

sorry. i shouldve included it at first.

 

[Van DeWald]

PS: Anyone have a good site that lists hourly SA's and SP's by STATE..without having to list each station separately.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/metars/

Put in @LA to get all the obs for Louisiana for example.

 

[rdale]

I don't understand what you mean by the interim ones? I just saw an almost live pressure ob. of 949 mb as the hurricane hunter passed over.

Summary message said surface pressure was 955mb during that pass... Guess either something is wrong in the converter or something for the NOAA reports since people keep giving out numbers which are MUCH lower than the actual summary?
URNT12 KWBC 010216
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 1/0203Z
B. 27 DEG 10 MIN N
87 DEG 59 MIN W
C. NA
D. 85 KT
E. NA
F. 095 DEG 113 KT
G. 001 DEG 21 NM
H. 955 MB
I. 20 C/2440 M
J. 21 C/2441 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. OPEN S
M. C25
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2407A GUSTAV OB 18 AL072008
MAX FL WIND 113KTS N QUAD 0158Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 108KTS NE QUAD 0211Z

 

[HAltschule]

Not sure. I am getting the 'almost' live data and plots on google earth/hurricane hunters tracking program. As the plane does its patterns, it relays these readings every 5 minutes? So there around 500 different data plots along the way.

It is possible that the reading they and you are referring to are from the dropsondes alone. Maybe that's what they rely on the most??