Mike Smith
New vortex message has it down to 956, down another millibar as of 2113Z.
rdale
EF5
Surface winds still only in the 80's mph range though. The ship that had reported 48ft waves is now saying 51ft waves - I wonder if they are converting wrong and enter feet instead of meters because that just doesn't seem 1) right and 2) survivable?
http://www.shipspotting.com/modules/myalbum/photo.php?lid=679297&cid=54
http://www.shipspotting.com/modules/myalbum/photo.php?lid=679297&cid=54
As the devoted 'Deadliest Catch' fan that I am, I think you are right that they are not converting something correctly. 40+ foot waves in the GOM would be spectacular, have just been caused by the storm since yesterday. Something seems out of place...
JR Hehnly
EF4
Based on the trend of the data plot, I believe the last buoy report from 42003 of 34.4 ft is accurate, and this was 50-60 miles from the storm center. Ship C6CL6 looks to be about 120 miles from the storm center. Doesn't seem likely those reports could be accurate.
Bill Hamilton
EF5
Here is an online scanner for the State of Louisiana Emergency Management Broadcast
http://la.scanamerica.us/playlists/la/terr...-1220221659.asx
http://la.scanamerica.us/playlists/la/terrebonne/scanner1f-1220221659.asx
http://la.scanamerica.us/playlists/la/terr...-1220221659.asx
http://la.scanamerica.us/playlists/la/terrebonne/scanner1f-1220221659.asx
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Charles Kuster
EF4
I agree. We are chasing Gustav (in the Lafayette area now) and evacuations seemed to run quite smoothly in this area. There was some heavy traffic, but that is expected. I am not sure about the New Orleans area, but all in all this evacuation is going much better than the evacuation during hurricane Rita, in my opinion.
The storm looks a little better organized right now than it did earlier today, but I would not expect the storm to intensify much before landfall. Mid level dry air has adversely affected the storm and will probably continue to do so. Good luck to all those chasing, and stay safe!
Eric Flescher
EF5
progress
Yes it seems like things are going better .
Seems like things are more orderly .That is good.
You can actually see that Chapter 1 before it hits actually doing better
Chapter 2 will be during after and Chapter 3 what is done after.
It is nice to see some actually talking and actual progress with what is going on.
The prognastications are that at the current track that the levess would barely hold .
But if it is nearer New Orleans the levees mnay not hold
it really hopes where it actually land
the greater threat could come from west and south and tornadoes
people will have to be prepared without power for 7 days without power, no food or water
time will tell
::
Yes it seems like things are going better .
Seems like things are more orderly .That is good.
You can actually see that Chapter 1 before it hits actually doing better
Chapter 2 will be during after and Chapter 3 what is done after.
It is nice to see some actually talking and actual progress with what is going on.
The prognastications are that at the current track that the levess would barely hold .
But if it is nearer New Orleans the levees mnay not hold
it really hopes where it actually land
the greater threat could come from west and south and tornadoes
people will have to be prepared without power for 7 days without power, no food or water
time will tell
::
Uhhh, it's 24 hours away from landfall, it's okay to be bumper to bumper today. FEMA can't turn cars into magical transport machinesEverything is going very well from what I'm hearing regarding evacuations, what info do you have otherwise?
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rdale
EF5
C6CL6 corrected to make it 12meters / 36ft but again based on surrounding obs I think 12ft sounds better?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=26.4N&lon1=87.3W&uom=E&dist=150&ot=A&time=6
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=26.4N&lon1=87.3W&uom=E&dist=150&ot=A&time=6
B Ozanne
EF5
Depends on the type of wave and the ship. Steep breaking waves versus long period swells...and day sailor versus Jahre Viking.
Jim Zandonai
LOL..yeah I guess..its bewildering.
This has been an odd storm for forecasting intensity. But the track is pretty much dead on so far. Checkin out the latest
Latest WV imagery it shows Gustav almost has an eye maybe forming judging by the swirl its finally getting. Then again I could be wrong but it looks impressive. We'll have to see what happens this eve..
rdale
EF5
953mb on latest recon but still only 78kt surface winds and flight level winds not very strong...
Jason Harris
EF5
However, there were people being interviewed [on some of the major news networks (not sure whether it was MSNBC, CNN, or FOX)] buses (not the drivers, the passengers) that had no idea where they were going and supposedly there was no "manifest" for families to be aware of who was going where. And there were problems with gas. Also, some people are staying in NO because they claim they simply can't afford to do anything else.
Interesting that here in Brevard county(Florida) while people are on the verge of being flooded (in addition to those flooded before) from rising rivers after Fay and the usual thunderstorms, the county will not provide sandbags; yes, you can buy your own and then get sand, but what about the elderly or infirm who can't do anything? One fellow interviewed explained that FEMA will help only AFTER his house gets flooded, not before. He still had a few inches to go.
I'm sure we'll hear of various oversights with NO as well although to many it seems just fine. What will be irritating is that if Gustav wimps out (don't think that will happen, though seems like despite pressure decreasing again winds don't want to budge past 115) or doesn't make a significant hit close enough to NO to cause much trouble that then there will be these bureaucrats and politicians claiming "victory"--that things have improved so much with the infrastructure, and yet the levees are 2-3 years behind being ready according to the US Army Corp of Engineers in NO based on multiple news reports. Unless Gustav is at least as intense to Katrina, there should be no great claims about how they "did it right" this time--not when the levees really aren't ready, not till 2011:
--
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has worked since 2005 to repair and reinforce 325 miles of levees and floodwalls that ring New Orleans and its neighboring parishes, but experts said the $15 billion in improvements won't be finished until 2011.
The project is only 20 percent complete, and there are significant gaps that made New Orleans residents nervous as Gustav approached. The city is partially below sea level and is shaped like a bowl, its levees serving as the rim.
--
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricanes/story/666472.html
Interesting that here in Brevard county(Florida) while people are on the verge of being flooded (in addition to those flooded before) from rising rivers after Fay and the usual thunderstorms, the county will not provide sandbags; yes, you can buy your own and then get sand, but what about the elderly or infirm who can't do anything? One fellow interviewed explained that FEMA will help only AFTER his house gets flooded, not before. He still had a few inches to go.
I'm sure we'll hear of various oversights with NO as well although to many it seems just fine. What will be irritating is that if Gustav wimps out (don't think that will happen, though seems like despite pressure decreasing again winds don't want to budge past 115) or doesn't make a significant hit close enough to NO to cause much trouble that then there will be these bureaucrats and politicians claiming "victory"--that things have improved so much with the infrastructure, and yet the levees are 2-3 years behind being ready according to the US Army Corp of Engineers in NO based on multiple news reports. Unless Gustav is at least as intense to Katrina, there should be no great claims about how they "did it right" this time--not when the levees really aren't ready, not till 2011:
--
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has worked since 2005 to repair and reinforce 325 miles of levees and floodwalls that ring New Orleans and its neighboring parishes, but experts said the $15 billion in improvements won't be finished until 2011.
The project is only 20 percent complete, and there are significant gaps that made New Orleans residents nervous as Gustav approached. The city is partially below sea level and is shaped like a bowl, its levees serving as the rim.
--
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricanes/story/666472.html
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Ryan McGinnis
EF5
It almost looks like it's about to pop out an eye. The eyewall finally closed, too, from the Vortex message. Man, of all times to get reorganzied.
Tim Marshall
EF2
TARGET: Lafayette-Baton Rouge, LA TIME OF DEPARTURE: Midnight. Dry air continues to move around the circulation of Gustav. However, in the last hour or two a new convective burst has occurred and it appears Gustav wants to create a visible eye. Thus, it appears Gustav will remain a hurricane in habitable areas that one can get to safely. I plan to arrive in Lafayette at day break then will decide whether to head east to Baton Rouge or southeast to New Iberia depending on the track. Hope to be in the east eyewall, if it still exists when I get there. TM
Adam Penney
EF1
Yes I agree with Tim. It certainly appears within the last few hours, some strengthening has begun to occur, now completely wrapping around the eyewall.
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