07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Tim Vasquez]

Based on the long range radar loops at 00Z it appears the track is already deviating east of the 21Z NHC forecast. I'm measuring this to be about 20 to 30 miles orthogonal to the forecast track arc. I wonder if others are seeing the same thing. This would bring it more directly towards NO.

Tim

 

[B Ozanne]

Based on the long range radar loops it appears the track is already deviating east of the 21Z NHC forecast. I'm measuring this to be about 20 to 30 miles orthogonal to the forecast track arc. I wonder if others are seeing the same thing. This would bring it more directly towards NO.

Tim

Somebody on another forum noted that if you extrapolate the last two advisory fixes the path is directly towards NOLA (I verified this myself).

Pressure falls have been fairly significant this afternoon. I saw the latest aircraft recon is down to 950mb.

 

[rdale]

Pressure falls have been fairly significant this afternoon. I saw the latest aircraft recon is down to 950mb.

Actually 953mb - the interim ones aren't as reliable.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I'm entertaining the possibility that Gustav may pass EAST of New Orleans (and trash the Missisippi coast and spare NO). But it's hard to tell as the eyewall is barely scraping the bottom of the 0.5 deg radar slice and it's not clear what's going on there. Still too early to call it for sure.

EDIT: Nixed this idea -- see below

Tim

 

[HAltschule]

I don't understand what you mean by the interim ones? I just saw an almost live pressure ob. of 949 mb as the hurricane hunter passed over.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

TARGET: Lafayette-Baton Rouge, LA TIME OF DEPARTURE: Midnight. Dry air continues to move around the circulation of Gustav. However, in the last hour or two a new convective burst has occurred and it appears Gustav wants to create a visible eye. Thus, it appears Gustav will remain a hurricane in habitable areas that one can get to safely. I plan to arrive in Lafayette at day break then will decide whether to head east to Baton Rouge or southeast to New Iberia depending on the track. Hope to be in the east eyewall, if it still exists when I get there. TM

Dang, Tim, that's going to be some exciting nightime driving! Good luck!

 

[B Ozanne]

I don't understand what you mean by the interim ones? I just saw an almost live pressure ob. of 949 mb as the hurricane hunter passed over.

Yes, please explain.

Does this "live" data need to be calibrated/corrected?

 

[rdale]

I don't understand what you mean by the interim ones? I just saw an almost live pressure ob. of 949 mb as the hurricane hunter passed over.

Quite frequently those are revised upward in the formal VORTEX message. Remember the 930mb yesterday? I'm not sure why or what the process is...

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I'm nixing my earlier suggestion about the center going east of New Orleans... I think I'm seeing too much imaginary structure in the loops. However, there is definitely an consistent indication that the eye center is at least 10 to 20 miles east of the NHC track, so I agree with a path more towards the NO area.

Tim

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

Center & Wave Height

Tim,

I agree with 10-20 miles east of the current forecasted path. I also have been tracking the Wave Height. Buoy 42040 is now at 19 FT WHT and climbing 124 miles SE of NO. The most significant WHT is at 123 degrees from Venice LA at 170 miles Max Wave height at 35 FT.

It looks like the greatest WHT and Storm Surge looks to be headed for both sides of mouth of the Mississippi River.

 

[HAltschule]

1. Seems to me as if the 46 foot wave reports from ships at sea are supported by the smilarly incredible, albeit slightly lower, buoy obs, etc.

2. I also agree with the most recent consensus that Gustav appears to be moving directly toward New Orleans. BAD NEWS.

3. New HH recon flight is about to enter the SE side of Gustav. Should have some new data coming in shortly.

PS: Anyone have a good site that lists hourly SA's and SP's by STATE..without having to list each station separately.

 

[rdale]

1. Seems to me as if the 46 foot wave reports from ships at sea are supported by the smilarly incredible, albeit slightly lower, buoy obs, etc.

Remember though just one ship, not multiple ships. And bouys that are closer to the storm reporting much lower waves - I'm not sure how that verifies a 45-50ft report?

For SA/SP - if you have GEMPAK, use sflist and just set "AREA = @xx" where xx = state ID.

 

[rdale]

Strange - NDBC has removed the ship obs from the database that was reporting 30-50ft waves...

 

[Justin Bailey]

anybody got a map of where gonzalez, LA is located? i've got some good friends that live there that havent evacuated...i cant find it on my map.

 

[Darren Addy]

http://maps.google.com
shows that Gonzales, LA is about 1/4 of the way between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.

Looks like Gustav has a carpet of relatively warm water all the way into land, on its current projected path.
http://weather.wb38.com/data/640x480/flm_marine.gif

Also appears that the forecast, valid at 1 AM is for a core of 946mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested//storm_1/18/storm_1_pcp000018_l.shtml

It may be worth noting that if Gustav makes landfall at approximately noon tomorrow, it would be doing so during the normal High Tide time for the date.