07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Tim Marshall]

Gustav continues to decrease in intensity. I don't like the dry air wedge southwest of the hurricane and there appears to be increasing shear. The eye is no longer visible on satellite and the cloud shield is not symmetric. If Gustav continues to decrease in intensity, I'll abort heading to Lafayette. A final decision will be made this evening. TM

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I must have missed the burst of convection that people are talking about because I just don't see anything of the sort. It appears that dry air is still wrapping around the southern, eastern, and soon to be northern side and southerly shear is increasing. As noted above, I still don't see how Gustav can / will strengthen in this environment. I wouldn't be the least surprised to see Gustav make landfall around 100mph.

I should also note that weaker systems are more influenced by the surrounding environment, which would make a sharp turn to the west more likely - assuming the models continue to have a good handle on the strength of the ridge.

 

[rdale]

Ship north of center reporting sustained 69mph winds and 46 (forty six!) foot waves...

 

[David Drummond]

Myself and Steve Miller, TX are in route to chase it as well.

 

[James Skelton]

I'm planning on Baton Rouge but may meet up with some in Long Beach, Miss. We'll see. By the way, contra-flow will end at midnight CST on I-10.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Matt Hughes and myself are driving southbound through Paris, TX right now. We will be in southern LA by late evening.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I must have missed the burst of convection that people are talking about because I just don't see anything of the sort.

Patrick,

I noticed the burst of convection that Mike U noted. It was best seen on the RAMSDIS Rapid Scan visible satellite loop as very hard convection that wrapped around the center. RAMSDIS Rapid Scan page

I agree in that I'm not sure how Gustav will intensify. The highest TCHP is now behind the center, and it doesn't look like shear will decrease appreciably in the next 18-20 hours. I think the hurricane may be able to intensify a bit if it can manage to clear out an eye, though. With the given shear, however, I'm not entirely sure how that can happen.

 

[HAltschule]

I found these very interesting Obs. What a monster Gustav is.... I mean, what is the record wave height measured. 46 Feet!! Unbelievable!!

42003 - MARITIME-buoy
Sunday Aug. 31 - 15:49 UTC
Air Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 79°F
Wind: ESE at 60 mph
gusting to 78
Pressure: 992.2 mb
Wave Height: 34 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 83.7°F

C6CL6 - MARITIME-ship
Sunday Aug. 31 - 18:00 UTCAir Temperature: 84°F
Dewpoint: 80°F
Weather: Cloudy
Wave Height: 46 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 86°F

 

[rdale]

I noted that above - that's a dramatic increase from their last ob, and not supported by neighboring reports though, so it'll be interesting to see as the storm gets closer to the bouys.

 

[B Ozanne]

Ivan is still the leader in record wave heights. I thought waves were approaching 100 feet in Ivan.

 

[Eric Flescher]

will hit Monday morning

Category 3 it may get stronger.
It is moving I heard 16 mph which is not good (faster it goes the better) .
What the heck are the authorities doing? They are trying to tell people to get out but it seems like nothing else.The main highway lane out of New Orleans (shown on TV) is bumper to bumper.
Sounds like FEMA is doing a great job again.

I hope by some fortune, New Orleans does not get swamped again
::

I found these very interesting Obs. What a monster Gustav is.... I mean, what is the record wave height measured. 46 Feet!! Unbelievable!!

42003 - MARITIME-buoy
Sunday Aug. 31 - 15:49 UTC
Air Temperature: 79°F
Dewpoint: 79°F
Wind: ESE at 60 mph
gusting to 78
Pressure: 992.2 mb
Wave Height: 34 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 83.7°F

C6CL6 - MARITIME-ship
Sunday Aug. 31 - 18:00 UTCAir Temperature: 84°F
Dewpoint: 80°F
Weather: Cloudy
Wave Height: 46 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 86°F

 

[Mike Smith]

Pressure has dropped 3mb to 957 on the new vortex message.

 

[James Skelton]

Pressure has dropped 3mb to 957 on the new vortex message.

I wasn't really expecting that. Hmmm.

 

[Jim Zandonai]

Yeah that makes sense..if you look close at IR and WV imagery its trying very hard to form an eye..If that happens it looks good to keep its strength but man is it had a hard time today. I guess the dry air to the west or according to some, wind shear. I think the odd thing is that considering the strength and how
Gustav looked when it crossed over part of Cuba for a brief time messed it up that much and it still hasn't formed an eye again..looks like a new advisory coming out in a few...

Edit: Yep looks to remain a 3 up to landfall with a slight shift to the west..

 

[rdale]

.
What the heck are the authorities doing? They are trying to tell people to get out but it seems like nothing else.The main highway lane out of New Orleans (shown on TV) is bumper to bumper.
Sounds like FEMA is doing a great job again.

Uhhh, it's 24 hours away from landfall, it's okay to be bumper to bumper today. FEMA can't turn cars into magical transport machines Everything is going very well from what I'm hearing regarding evacuations, what info do you have otherwise?