07L: Hurricane Gustav

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jim Leonard
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First off, I seem to have misidentified where the center was. The latest burst of convection just north of the center, sufficiently clouded the center that I lost track of what was the center (http://goes-rap.cira.colostate.edu/GOES-12/GEMS/Original/JPEG/Current/conus_c03.jpg) and probably jumped the gun on the extent of any "westward" jog. That's what I get for posting before examining anything "close-up".

On the convection issue, I guess first I should clarify that when I say new convection isn't developing on the western side I'm not referring to the immediate eyewall area. If you watch a long loop of the WV you'll see that the western side of the outflow isn't expanding anymore and actually eroded quite a bit during the night. The latest visible imagery from the floater (http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html) does show that most of the *new* convection is developing on the northern side and then wrapping on the western side, but that very little is developing on the western side (understandable) or the southern side and wrapping east. I also tend to think that the convection developing around the eyewall on the northwestern side is having it's top blown SW giving the appearance of well defined convection there, but vis imagery doesn't show anything bubbling through those higher clouds. Additionally, I firmly believe the dry air to the west is being wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of Gustav, hampering the development of new convection - even though the outflow is less restricted on the east side (per IR and WV).

Compare the structure yesterday morning at this time to this morning. Yesterday Gustav was very symmetrical / circular with convective development in all quadrants (and thus we saw rapid strengthening even in the face of 20 knots of shear). This morning it's very asymmetrical and impeded on the western and southern side, furthermore, almost all of the feeder bands on the southern side have vanished. (As I write this, visible imagery indicates that Gustav is trying to develop some.) I don't think that Gustav will be able to rapidly strengthen as long as it continues to entrain dry air and have it's western most outflow impeded.

Just my $.02. If I were an expert, I wouldn't be posting my forecasts here... ;)
 
Pimping our radar page once again ( http://www.stormtrack.org/radar ) but just to let you all know we've added looping of the radar. You can pretty much pick out where the eye is. I sense the storm might be accelerating, but there's not a whole lot to go on.

Tim
 
Patrick Marsh said:
Just my $.02. If I were an expert, I wouldn't be posting my forecasts here... ;)
Click to expand...

What exactly would be the difference, that would end the posting?


As for the sw side of the storm, outside of the inner convective portion, I guess I don't see the huge change since when it was a 150mph storm yesterday...as far as this outer band convection. It's been rather "bandless" on the sw and s side for a long time now.
 
All that meant was that if I were an expert, my forecasts would be coming from NHC or somewhere like that - not ST.

As for the difference in structure, examine this WV image as Gustav was coming ashore yesterday on SW Cuba: http://forwarn.org/images/CONUSwv99.jpg. There is near perfect symmetry, several large bands on the southern side and a nearly unrestricted outflow on the western side. (Just look at the distance from the eye to the edge of the western outflow.)

Now examine this one from this morning: http://forwarn.org/images/CONUSwv01.jpg. There are hardly any bands on the southern edge, in fact the center of circulation is very near the edge of the southern outflow. There is less of a striation appearance (indicative of less banding). Even though Gustav has moved more westward, the westernmost edge of the outflow hasn't move much. Not to mention the dry air on the southeastern side (and hence the tighter gradient from moist to dry on the southern side).

Today, Gustav is much more ragged than yesterday, even per the latest NHC forecast discussion which talks about how even they are a little unsure as to where the center of Gustav really is (it isn't the eye-like feature we see in satellite imagery) - which just further shows how ragged it has become. Furthermore, WV imagery has a nice batch of dry air just to the SW of Gustav, which could easily get entrained, hampering appearance / development even more. I just don't see much in the way of strengthening, unless it can clear out the eye, stop the dry air entrainment, and increase it's outflow to the west and southwest.
 
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looking at closeup vis now--appears that outflow is improving on western semicircle and thunderstorms in northeastern eyewall appear in last few frames to have vertically expanded and wrapping around the eastern eyewall and extending to the southeastern eyewall. also appears that southeastern outflow is also getting somewhat better too. cluster of storms southwest of center should begin to intensify--i think we are now seeing some intensification --but if that SW storm cluster gets going--rapid intensification could commense in the next few hours.
 
I noticed that too, AB. the 1602, 1610, 1615 frames on the ramsdis site certainly look good regarding eyewall convective development on the eastern/northeastern semi-circle...while the other half is maintaining itself. If this trend continues, we should see another pressure drop burst, although probably not on the scale of yesterday.
 
Bouy 42003

The big story with Gustav will be storm surge buoy 42003 just reported WHT at 34.4 ft this is just ENE of the center. This storm surge 15-20 FT range is heading toward the LA coast.


 
Chasers on Gustav:

I am curious who is chasing Gustav and if any are doing live updates from the field. Here are the chasers that I know will be out there. I don't know their target areas yet and they certainly may change due to storm motion, road blockages and availability of shelter. Here is my list so far in no specific order:

Jim Leonard/Max Hagen/Michael Laca
Mike Theiss
Dave Lewison/Scott McPartland/George Kourounis/Mark Robinson
Blake Michaleski/Matt Grantham/Brett Adair
Doug Kiesling--New Orleans
Jason Foster/Aaron Debruin/Chris Collura
James Skelton
Tim Marshall
?Warren Faidley
Tornado Videos.net with ?Reed Timmer--Live Streaming. Target New Iberia.
Stuart Robinson

I hope I haven't forgotten anyone.

Bill Hark
 
jim reed is in new orleans--will be near the airport--no live updates


Bill Hark said:
Chasers on Gustav:

I am curious who is chasing Gustav and if any are doing live updates from the field. Here are the chasers that I know will be out there. I don't know their target areas yet and they certainly may change due to storm motion, road blockages and availability of shelter. Here is my list so far in no specific order:

Jim Leonard/Max Hagen/Michael Laca
Mike Theiss
Dave Lewison/Scott McPartland/George Kourounis/Mark Robinson
Blake Michaleski/Matt Grantham/Brett Adair
Doug Kiesling--New Orleans
Jason Foster/Aaron Debruin/Chris Collura
James Skelton
Tim Marshall
?Warren Faidley
Tornado Videos.net with ?Reed Timmer--Live Streaming. Target New Iberia.
Stuart Robinson

I hope I haven't forgotten anyone.

Bill Hark
Click to expand...
 
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