07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Blake Michaleski]

On stand by here in Mobile, AL.

We have Myself, Matt Grantham and Brett Adair ready to go tomorrow. Currently we are targeting the MS coast somewhat inland. Plans will be adjusted accordingly as the forecast changes.

This is a serious storm. Props to Mayor Nagin, he's really doing it right this time....

We have scouted the entire MS coast and have many options above the Katrina Surge level. but of course somehow if it is expected to be higher, we'll adjust as well.

Still waiting on 00Z models but I expect a continued shift to the right....

 

[Patrick Marsh]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM is a little further stronger with the 500mb ridge axis and in turn keeps Gustav from reaching the LA coast. Quick glance at the NAM's location of the surface high indicates that on the NE side of Gustav there will be a large component of the gradient wind from the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain...


00Z GFS has a similar setup, however allows Gustav to make landfall (barefully) before turning west-southwest...

 

[Robert Rohloff]

Has there been any discussion in the NO area about all the debris still there and another storm hitting? Having seen recent photos of damage still in place from Katrina, I have to think that flying debris will be even a worse problem since it appears to hit to the west.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM is a little further stronger with the 500mb ridge axis and in turn keeps Gustav from reaching the LA coast. Quick glance at the NAM's location of the surface high indicates that on the NE side of Gustav there will be a large component of the gradient wind from the Gulf into Lake Pontchartrain...


00Z GFS has a similar setup, however allows Gustav to make landfall (barefully) before turning west-southwest...

Yeah, some of those forecast tracks have been scary, at least for oil rigs. Like it sort of "wants" it to take a worst case scenario through them all. I keep trying to guess what gas could go to if something like that happens, with a cat 4 or 5 stopping off shore and meandering through them all.

 

[Matt Sellers]

Gustav's forecast track in the last 250 miles before landfall is very close to the track of the first billion-dollar hurricane (in terms of actual monetary damage at that time), 1965's Betsy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Betsy

 

[James Skelton]

I seriously doubt the scenario plays out where the storm turns west all of a sudden just prior to landfall. Hanna and Gustav are also to far apart for the Fujiwhara effect to be of any signifigance. I just don't think some of the models have the ridging correct either. It's too much. Now, Hanna also is taking a track more to the right in the long term. Just my two cents.

 

[Patrick Marsh]

I seriously doubt the scenario plays out where the storm turns west all of a sudden just prior to landfall. I just don't think some of the models have the ridging correct. It's too much. Now, Hanna also is taking a track more to the right in the long term. Just my two cents.

I'm not picking a fight, so take this the right way (this goes along with a previous thread started by Tim about constructive criticism / questioning forecasts)...

What evidence do you have to support this? What is your reasoning? I think the models have a good handle on the ridge. If anything they might have slightly underdone the strength. 00Z RAOBs indicate a large area of 590dams at H500 across the central US, with the center of the ridge to be centered near STL. 12 hour height rises appear to be the greatest from STL north and east through IL, IN, into OH, however heights have risen as for SW as LR and SGF and as far SE as ATL. Examining the 12Z runs' 12 hour forecast (so those for 00Z tonight) indicates that the ridge is stronger than those model's were forecasting for that time and thus leads more credence to the 00Z models solutions which initialized the ridge better this evening.

Just my $.02. Take it for what it's worth.


EDIT TO ADD: Not so sure why you are bringing up the Fujiwhara effect. This effect would actually cause Gustav and Hanna to pinwheel around each other which would indicate a more easterly motion for Gustav...not a turn to the west. By saying that there will be no Fujiwhara (which I agree there won't be) you are saying that it certainly is possible for the westward turn.

 

[James Skelton]

Correct me if I'm wrong but won't the Fujiwhara effect spin Gustav counter-clockwise(to the west) if he does interact with hanna? The two systems will begin a counter-clockwise motion around a point in the center of the two sytems which would INITIALLY take Gustav to the west, then south-west, THEN looping him back around to the east towards Hanna. Yes, ultimately this would bring the storm to the east, but it would first have to be to the west because the orbit around the central axis has to be counter-clockwise as we are in the northern hemisphere. Am I thinking this out wrong?

 

[James Skelton]

As for my ridging hypothesis, I should've said that Gustav's latest wobbles to a more 350 heading are my reasoning. I think the track should be a tad bit more to the east. Not much more, but I just don't think explained the easternly wobbles and the effect it will have on the long term track very well. Again, this is just one man's opinion. I think sometimes I also am a human version of the Climatology Persistance model in that I tend to use my own memories of storm behavior to come up with my opinions. Maybe a very flawed way of doing things.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

0z HWRF landfall.

That just came out, with a decent rightward jog. That's been one of the most consistent models I've seen. That would be a bad scenario, have the right wobbles now, then the left jog later near/onshore. One more wobble like that and NO will have some big issues.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Anyone have a link to any good elevation maps for S LA? Interested in the Highway 90 Corridor, Morgan City is out of the question given its 7ft Elevation, though New Iberia at 20ft and Lafayette at 36ft are much more appealing provided favorable surrounding landscape...

While it may end up being to far West could be a Usefull source
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/tropical/StormSurgeMaps.php

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Anyone have a link to any good elevation maps for S LA? Interested in the Highway 90 Corridor, Morgan City is out of the question given its 7ft Elevation, though New Iberia at 20ft and Lafayette at 36ft are much more appealing provided favorable surrounding landscape...

You can see elevation with google earth using your cursor. Pretty nice.

 

[James Skelton]

Anyone on here thinking about staying near Slidell, LA or the western Mississippi gulf coast just north of I-10? If so, I'm looking for another partner. Little late now, but I thought I'd try. Leaving Pensacola in the AM.

 

[Blake Michaleski]

If you haven't done this before I strongly suggest you get up with someone...

i'll shoot you a pm.....

 

[David Wolfson]

Although Hanna and Gustav are somewhat (1000 - 1100 miles) farther apart than the accepted Fujiwhara domain of 900 miles, looking at the Atlantic sat loops, the two storms are relatively large and do seem to be interacting a little bit. The FE would tend to rotate each cyclonically around a common center, imparting an eastward bias to Gustav. IMO, FWIW.