07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Chad Cowan]

Weather Channel conference call right now:

1-866-600-6083 Code 8978603

EDIT: Ended. Dr. Lyons gave an update... another scheduled for tomorrow afternoon

 

[Tim Vasquez]

We're now mirroring Cuban radar data, since apparently their servers are hammered:

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/

Tim

 

[rdale]

Weather Channel conference call right now:

1-866-600-6083 Code 8978603

TWC paying for the world to conference call?

 

[Dick McGowan]

TWC paying for the world to conference call?

Yes, Dave Swartz is leading it. It's their way of saying they're sorry for sucking the last decade. I'm talking to Stephanie Abrams right now!

 

[Mark Farnik]

It looks like the city of San Cristobal, Cuba, population 70,000, is going to take a direct hit from the eye of Gustav in a few hours. Havana isn't completely in the clear either, as though the eye will pass well to the southwest of the city, it will still be in the upper right quadrant of the storm and will likely experience hurricane force winds for at least a few hours.
Another thing of note is that the eye, which was looking slightly ragged and smallish earlier, has sharpened up, expanded and taken on the classic intense hurricane 'doughnut hole' eye appearance.

 

[Chad Cowan]

TWC paying for the world to conference call?

Yep, I got a free swizzle stick for participating!

 

[Christine Hudnall]

We're now mirroring Cuban radar data, since apparently their servers are hammered:

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/

Tim

Thanks Tim - I hadn't been able to get radar for down south, so this is great (and thanks for the handy links all in one spot).

 

[rdale]

Max surface winds per recon 123mph, but correlating FL winds with pressure giving 150mph surface winds.

 

[Jeff Richardson]

Just for kicks, I turned on the Weather Channel to see if they were having the usual menu...and much to my surprise "Forecast Earth" was not airing. Instead, they had a tropical update! Sounds like the crews on the hurricane hunters are being treated to a spectacular stadium effect eyewall structure. Hope somebody's taking some pics!

 

[David Wolfson]

The current forecast track progs the center to cross N23 W84 and, at about 10Z, N23.9 W85. Let's see... but my impression is that the storm has sped up just a little and tracking slightly right of forecast in the last few hours.

Surely a little early, but I'm starting to get a pit-of-the-stomach feeling about this storm with respect to NOLA. Note the evolution of the model consensus has diminished the blocking effect near the coast and moved the track slightly east.

 

[Jason Foster]

Chase Plans

It's a bit far, but the outer elements have come through the Florida Keys, setting off a very small watch box (it's just a baby of a little thing). I think this is an sure sign of the eastward trend at the moment.

Aaron DeBruin and myself flew down to Miami and meet up with Chris Collura, to initiate the chase. In fact after the latest updates, we are thinking we need to leave earlier than planned.

Add: Chris and Aaron are favoring an eastern track, I'm not as knowledgable as them, but I feel east of New Orleans is still in play.

 

[HAltschule]

Current Hurricane Hunter Mission just measured flight level winds of 158mph. This should make Gustav a CAT 5 Hurricane at 8pm unless NHC has some reason to hold off.

EDIT: They kept it at CAT 4 at 8pm.

 

[rdale]

Recon afterwards said pressure up to 952mb, no strong winds recently.

 

[Chad Cowan]

NOLA Mayor Nagin- "You need to be scared, you need to be concerned, you need to get your butt out of New Orleans."

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans ordered for tomorrow morning

 

[Danny Neal]

NOLA Mayor Nagin- "You need to be scared, you need to be concerned, you need to get your butt out of New Orleans."

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans ordered for tomorrow morning

Can police literally go in there and force you to leave? Or is it, if you stay....you are on your own?