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07L: Hurricane Gustav

  • Thread starter Thread starter Jim Leonard
  • Start date Start date
Weather Channel conference call right now:

1-866-600-6083 Code 8978603

EDIT: Ended. Dr. Lyons gave an update... another scheduled for tomorrow afternoon
 
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It looks like the city of San Cristobal, Cuba, population 70,000, is going to take a direct hit from the eye of Gustav in a few hours. Havana isn't completely in the clear either, as though the eye will pass well to the southwest of the city, it will still be in the upper right quadrant of the storm and will likely experience hurricane force winds for at least a few hours.
Another thing of note is that the eye, which was looking slightly ragged and smallish earlier, has sharpened up, expanded and taken on the classic intense hurricane 'doughnut hole' eye appearance.
 
Just for kicks, I turned on the Weather Channel to see if they were having the usual menu...and much to my surprise "Forecast Earth" was not airing. Instead, they had a tropical update! Sounds like the crews on the hurricane hunters are being treated to a spectacular stadium effect eyewall structure. Hope somebody's taking some pics!
 
The current forecast track progs the center to cross N23 W84 and, at about 10Z, N23.9 W85. Let's see... but my impression is that the storm has sped up just a little and tracking slightly right of forecast in the last few hours.

Surely a little early, but I'm starting to get a pit-of-the-stomach feeling about this storm with respect to NOLA. Note the evolution of the model consensus has diminished the blocking effect near the coast and moved the track slightly east.
 
Chase Plans

It's a bit far, but the outer elements have come through the Florida Keys, setting off a very small watch box (it's just a baby of a little thing). I think this is an sure sign of the eastward trend at the moment.

Aaron DeBruin and myself flew down to Miami and meet up with Chris Collura, to initiate the chase. In fact after the latest updates, we are thinking we need to leave earlier than planned.

Add: Chris and Aaron are favoring an eastern track, I'm not as knowledgable as them, but I feel east of New Orleans is still in play.
 
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Current Hurricane Hunter Mission just measured flight level winds of 158mph. This should make Gustav a CAT 5 Hurricane at 8pm unless NHC has some reason to hold off.

EDIT: They kept it at CAT 4 at 8pm.
 
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NOLA Mayor Nagin- "You need to be scared, you need to be concerned, you need to get your butt out of New Orleans."

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans ordered for tomorrow morning
 
Chad Cowan said:
NOLA Mayor Nagin- "You need to be scared, you need to be concerned, you need to get your butt out of New Orleans."

Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans ordered for tomorrow morning
Click to expand...

Can police literally go in there and force you to leave? Or is it, if you stay....you are on your own?
 
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