Danny Neal
EF5
That is what I am worried about......if the eye passes over SC LA it means all that surge associated with the right front quadrant will be squeezed into Lake Pontchartrain which could cause a ton of flooding/levee breaks again.
Chad Cowan
EF5
Landfall #4 images... Isle of Youth, Cuba
JR Hehnly
EF4
We must have some serious oil and gas assets down there. Latest total economic loss estimates (derived from census data and storm strength) are $7.6 billion!
Image from First Coast News
Image from First Coast News
Bill Tabor
EF5
Hello everybody! Welcome to tropical season. Wow! Can't believe how Gustav was a tropical storm and just became a Cat 1 yesterday and now suddenly Cat 4 with possible / likely strengthening. Also was looking at the model spaghetti plots Tim provided (thanks Tim!) and appears at the moment that a large majority are in agreement taking it very near New Orleans then on toward the general DFW vicinity; although it is interesting that quite a few in less agreement show recurving before reaching the coast and turning W, then SW.
Brandon Clement
EF4
The Fema press conference said that the storm is now a cat 5.
It doesn't sound right but a reporter asked if it was a slip of the tongue and the guy said it was a cat 4 but they just had an update saying it is now a cat 5.
I'm watching it live via channel 6 out of NOLA.
http://www.wdsu.com/video/17338135/index.html
It doesn't sound right but a reporter asked if it was a slip of the tongue and the guy said it was a cat 4 but they just had an update saying it is now a cat 5.
I'm watching it live via channel 6 out of NOLA.
http://www.wdsu.com/video/17338135/index.html
rdale
EF5
That was incorrect information.
Mark Farnik
EF5
According to CNN, NOLA Mayor Ray Nagin is strongly encouraging residents to evacuate, and it appears a mandatory evacuation will go into effect for the city later this afternoon. The lines at the Union Bus/Rail Terminal are being reported to stretch for miles. They also reported Louis Armstrong International Airport will be closing at 6 p.m. tonight.
Mandatory evacuations are also underway in all the southern coastal parishes of LA attm.
Even if Gustav does wind down to Cat 3 status before it makes landfall, it's still going to have one hell of a storm surge built up with it, and with the complete destruction of many of the protective barrier islands in the delta by Katrina three years ago, the storm surge is going to likely be significantly more destructive than Katrina's. If Gustav's eye tracks just southwest of the city as currently predicted, the resulting storm surge flooding is going to make Katrina completely pale in comparison and you can kiss New Orleans goodbye...
EDIT - I was just viewing the visible satellite loop, and Gustav has made a distinct wobble to the right in the last few frames of the loop. This wobble is also visible on Cuban radar. This is bad. Very, VERY bad...
Mandatory evacuations are also underway in all the southern coastal parishes of LA attm.
Even if Gustav does wind down to Cat 3 status before it makes landfall, it's still going to have one hell of a storm surge built up with it, and with the complete destruction of many of the protective barrier islands in the delta by Katrina three years ago, the storm surge is going to likely be significantly more destructive than Katrina's. If Gustav's eye tracks just southwest of the city as currently predicted, the resulting storm surge flooding is going to make Katrina completely pale in comparison and you can kiss New Orleans goodbye...
EDIT - I was just viewing the visible satellite loop, and Gustav has made a distinct wobble to the right in the last few frames of the loop. This wobble is also visible on Cuban radar. This is bad. Very, VERY bad...
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Brandon Clement
EF4
I think so too but he was just asked again and he said that the information came directly from Bill Reed, director of the NHC.
Mike Hollingshead
I'd almost think any track forecast for south or just sw of N.O. would be bad. Don't these things love to hook right as their outer bands interact with land? Kind of like tossing a ball up in the air with spin and watching it come back at you once it hits. Seems like more often than not the eye path veers right as it hits. But then again I'm not a huge cane buff, so maybe this ain't too true.
Chad Cowan
EF5
There is definitely going to be a significant impact to oil and NatGas output over at least the next few weeks, if not months. The infrastructure has been upgraded and is subject to higher standards because of Katrina's effect and this is going to be the first real test. Offshore rigs are now required to be moored with 12-16 lines rather than the previous 8 and are new rigs have been built higher off the water. Also, pipelines now have to be buried deeper. The current forecast track (subject to change) threads the needle to some extent between New Orleans and the largest concentration of rigs, but Gustav at major hurricane intensity will still have an appreciable effect on both.
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rdale
EF5
The cone is your friend.Dan Robinson
The official NHC forecast does call for Cat 5 over the southern Gulf, which is what he may have been referring to.
Danny Neal
EF5
Director of FEMA David Paulison in an interview no more than 2 minutes ago on C-SPAN says Bill Reid has indeed informed him Gustav is a CAT 5. Probably the same thing Brandon saw or a little later on in the interview. If nothing else, it confirms that this is the information being passed out. Probably means nothing until we see the update officially.
Brandon Clement
EF4
Channel 6 met Dan Milhan confirmed that Paulison was incorrect. The storm is a Cat 4 after confirming with the NHC and NWS.
rdale
EF5
BYX radar showed a pretty nice increase in convection on the north side of the eye but that's diminished a bit.
