Jeff Snyder
EF5
Hmm... the 18z NAM is pretty similar to the 12z... Still showing >55 Tds to the Red River by 18z, and >60 tds to near MLC and southward by 0z. I'm not so sure about how the NAM moves the 60 Td isodrosotherm northward like 160 miles between 18z and 0z. I'm sure there is some general evapotranspiration and/or regular evaporation that's creating a general 3-5 degree Td rise, which, in addition to some advection, is leading to the surface in the 60 degree Td line... At any rate, the very strong low-level shear and moderate instability are creating STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values >3 from Durant southward, and >7 from I20 southward, which is the best we've seen so far this season for warm-sector activity.
IF we can get the NAM-forecast Tds to verify...
IF we can get some insolation and resultant destabilization across the area tomorrow...
I certainly would expect a MDT risk, 15% hatched type of event from ADM-Durant southward into TX. We shall see, however...
IF we can get the NAM-forecast Tds to verify...
IF we can get some insolation and resultant destabilization across the area tomorrow...
I certainly would expect a MDT risk, 15% hatched type of event from ADM-Durant southward into TX. We shall see, however...