Latest OUN AFD makes prediction for DRAMATIC return to winter, with all its associated nastiness, to ALL of the U.S. except western third.
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WINTER RETURNING TO THE U.S.
- Thread starter Jonathan Whitehead
- Start date
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Great...just when I lost my gloves. :lol:
Jason McKittrick
EF3
Your worried about gloves I pawned my furnas.David Wolfson
EF5
It looks like I can just about shut off my furnas, and crank up the earigashun cause it's not gonna be rainin soon here in Aridzona!
brody_clifton
EF1
I have a gut feeling the eastern troughing/western ridging that is forecast to develop after tomorrow will be relatively short lived, lasting around the Feb. 18-20 time frame. I'm expecting (and hoping) for the zonal pattern to resume afterwards on into and through most of March, with one or two more relatively short periods of troughing/blocking between 2/20ish and April 1. I haven't checked out the CPCs take on this yet. What do you guys think will happen with the pattern during the next 6-7 weeks, death ridge in the west until spring or back to the recent pattern after a short break?
Dan Cook
EF5
Though these are 00Z ensemble analyses and I think the 12Z output is a little weaker upon the troughing pattern from the highlands of Canada, there is agreement that cold air becomes more common from middle America to the Northeast ... 500 mb ensemble anomalies show lower heights present at 500 mb across the northern CONUS ... 500:1000 mb thickness significantly emphasizes cold air finally reaching further southward ...
Regular model analyses suggest that the pattern that has been seen over the Northeast of winter storms tracking NE-wd before reaching the coastline, significant warm advection and accompanying rains, and snow only for the very northern regions disappears.
It will be interesting to see further model runs down the road to see if this pattern of continuous cold air stays in place.
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/msl..._animation.htmlAnthony Silver
EF4
Let's just hope these predictions turn out to be incorrect...I was kinda lookin' forward to warmer weather for Feb and March (and possibly an early start to the '06 chase season too).
Robert Dewey
EF5
Weather? Winter? In 2006? Me laughing --> :lol:samuel stone
EF3
I was kinda with Anthony on the "early chase season" deal. Since I got a chase in on the 28th of january I was kinda hoping to get a chase in every month of this year. Looks like that won't happen.
Mark Farnik
EF5
How dare all of you keep wishing for an early spring! That is extremely selfish; shame on you all! :evil: Here at my father's DRYLAND farm in northeast Colorado, we've seen all of 12 inches of dry, fluffy snow since October 1st, 11 1/2 inches of which fell before winter began. We've had no moisture of any significance since the 19th of December, and the combination of wind and high temps has completley dried out the topsoil. Note to Brady: you can shove this zonal flow pattern where the sun don't shine! It has given us no moisture whatsoever; the storms dumped all their snow on the goddamn ski resorts which so many Coloradoans covet
like they are precious jewels and then give us nothing but howling winds and high temperatures! Oh, but the mentality in Colorado is as long as the ski resorts are getting snow, everything is hunky dory. That's complete and utter bulls**t. The irrigated farmers are all good because as there is plenty of snow that has fallen in the mountains to melt down in the spring and fill the reservoirs so they can water their crops. But no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever thinks of the dryland farmer, who relies on the weather for his irrigation. If we don't get some signifcant snowstorms around here by March, my father is going to have to sell out; yes, I mean SELL OUT, LIQUIDATE ALL HIS FARM EQUIPMENT, FIND ANOTHER JOB, HAVE TO QUIT FARMING THE LAND THAT HAS BEEN IN OUR FAMILY FOR 94 YEARS! So before you start saying that you wish for an early spring, consider that some of us actually do rely on winter for our survival.B Ozanne
EF5
They did a Mythbusters on this. It turns out that wishing/hoping/praying for snowstorms doesn't work. It also turns out that not one early spring has occured because of wishfull thinking. It was a pretty boring episode, but they did blow something up at the end.Dave Lewison
EF1
Perfect...just the thread I wanna hear when I've already booked my flight from NY to Denver for the Chaser Convention (first time I've ever attended this event). The last thing I need is a major winter storm to screw up my travel plans!
I've lived in the northeast for 30 years, so I'm at least a little familiar with the general winter patterns we get. FWIW, it sounds like this progged blast of cold air will be one of the WNW flow scenarios that funnel the really frigid air down from central Canada. This will likely fire up the lake-effect snow machine across western NY, but not in eastern NY where I live. This arctic express is usually accompanied by fast-moving clipper systems, which bring a quick shot of 2-3" snow, but not much more.
The real snow-makers here are when we get a high parked over the Hudson Bay, which keeps cold air dammed up across the northeast...and then a coastal low rides up the seaboard and explosively deepens, throwing tons of moisture over that cold air. Those are the big 20" snowfalls, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards to me.Mike Hollingshead
Well, a much larger number will be paying high natural gas bills, taking away needed money. How dare you wish higher heating bills on millions...lol. But then again, all of us wishing to pay less for heating would be "extremely selfish".
Off to be concerned about every possible angle of everything I hope for.
---end of pointless post---
Robert Dewey
EF5
Welp, my take on things... Take what you can, and have fun doing it.
Don't fuss when it's warm, don't fuss when it's cold. I have come to find that there are plenty of other weather features equally as exciting as severe thunderstorms. Obviously if you set out with a bad attitude (or the "Eeyore attitude") then yes, you WILL get SDS. In that case, you only brought it on yourself.
As for Mark F., everything goes both ways. My friends brother and sister died in a car accident because of the winter weather that YOU want to return... See how it goes both ways? There are obvious consequences to everything, for example:
Wishing for that big snowstorm: Car accidents, people get killed
Wishing for that big tornado: Hits a house killing a family
Wishing for a nice sunny day in July: Someone gets a severe sunburn, dies of skin cancer
See where this is going?Similar threads
