WINTER RETURNING TO THE U.S.

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Latest OUN AFD makes prediction for DRAMATIC return to winter, with all its associated nastiness, to ALL of the U.S. except western third.

Originally posted by WFO OUN

NEXT ISSUE IS THE MUCH-ADVERTIZED PATTERN CHANGE THAT EVENTUALLY
WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. SLOWLY BUT SURELY...THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR
AMPLIFICATION OF AN E-PACIFIC W-NOAM RIDGE AND A POSITIVE-PHASE
PNA PATTERN. FAIRLY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS IN THE REGION OF EXPECTED RIDGE
DEVELOPMENT...DUE LARGELY TO THE RETURN OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THE
UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WILL DISPLACE THE COLD AIR NOW OVER ALASKA. THE HEMISPHERIC
THICKNESS MINIMUM...WHICH HAS MOVED TEMPORARILY E INTO THE BERING
STRAIT AND IS RESULTING IN TEMPS OF -40 TO -50 OVER NW ALASKA...
WILL BE NUDGED BACK W INTO SIBERIA. BUT THE COLD AIR FACTORY
EVENTUALLY WILL RETURN TO OPERATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
AXIS...OVER N AND CENTRAL CANADA...AS HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE W CANADA RIDGE SET UP A LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS AIR WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY
AROUND NEXT THURSDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY ARCTIC SFC
HIGH...APPROACHING 1050 MB ON MOST MODELS...OVER NW CANADA INDICATES
THAT A SE-WARD MIGRATION OF THE COLD AIR E OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS WILL BE LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
ARRIVAL IN THE S PLAINS IS CURRENTLY NEXT FRIDAY...JUST BEYOND OUR
CURRENT DAY 7...WITH REINFORCEMENTS OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM SETUP BY THE WEEKEND OF 2/11-12 OR EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. MEANTIME...DRY/MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED/THU
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING OF PREDOMINANTLY-PACIFIC AIRMASS.

 
I have a gut feeling the eastern troughing/western ridging that is forecast to develop after tomorrow will be relatively short lived, lasting around the Feb. 18-20 time frame. I'm expecting (and hoping) for the zonal pattern to resume afterwards on into and through most of March, with one or two more relatively short periods of troughing/blocking between 2/20ish and April 1. I haven't checked out the CPCs take on this yet. What do you guys think will happen with the pattern during the next 6-7 weeks, death ridge in the west until spring or back to the recent pattern after a short break?
 
Though these are 00Z ensemble analyses and I think the 12Z output is a little weaker upon the troughing pattern from the highlands of Canada, there is agreement that cold air becomes more common from middle America to the Northeast ... 500 mb ensemble anomalies show lower heights present at 500 mb across the northern CONUS ... 500:1000 mb thickness significantly emphasizes cold air finally reaching further southward ...

Regular model analyses suggest that the pattern that has been seen over the Northeast of winter storms tracking NE-wd before reaching the coastline, significant warm advection and accompanying rains, and snow only for the very northern regions disappears.

It will be interesting to see further model runs down the road to see if this pattern of continuous cold air stays in place.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/msl..._animation.html
 
Let's just hope these predictions turn out to be incorrect...I was kinda lookin' forward to warmer weather for Feb and March (and possibly an early start to the '06 chase season too).
 
I was kinda with Anthony on the "early chase season" deal. Since I got a chase in on the 28th of january I was kinda hoping to get a chase in every month of this year. Looks like that won't happen.
 
How dare all of you keep wishing for an early spring! That is extremely selfish; shame on you all! :evil: Here at my father's DRYLAND farm in northeast Colorado, we've seen all of 12 inches of dry, fluffy snow since October 1st, 11 1/2 inches of which fell before winter began. We've had no moisture of any significance since the 19th of December, and the combination of wind and high temps has completley dried out the topsoil. Note to Brady: you can shove this zonal flow pattern where the sun don't shine! It has given us no moisture whatsoever; the storms dumped all their snow on the goddamn ski resorts which so many Coloradoans covet
like they are precious jewels and then give us nothing but howling winds and high temperatures! Oh, but the mentality in Colorado is as long as the ski resorts are getting snow, everything is hunky dory. That's complete and utter bulls**t. The irrigated farmers are all good because as there is plenty of snow that has fallen in the mountains to melt down in the spring and fill the reservoirs so they can water their crops. But no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever thinks of the dryland farmer, who relies on the weather for his irrigation. If we don't get some signifcant snowstorms around here by March, my father is going to have to sell out; yes, I mean SELL OUT, LIQUIDATE ALL HIS FARM EQUIPMENT, FIND ANOTHER JOB, HAVE TO QUIT FARMING THE LAND THAT HAS BEEN IN OUR FAMILY FOR 94 YEARS! So before you start saying that you wish for an early spring, consider that some of us actually do rely on winter for our survival.
 
How dare all of you keep wishing for an early spring! That is extremely selfish; shame on you all! :evil: Here at my father's DRYLAND farm in northeast Colorado, we've seen all of 12 inches of dry, fluffy snow since October 1st, 11 1/2 inches of which fell before winter began. We've had no moisture of any significance since the 19th of December, and the combination of wind and high temps has completley dried out the topsoil. Note to Brady: you can shove this zonal flow pattern where the sun don't shine! It has given us no moisture whatsoever; the storms dumped all their snow on the goddamn ski resorts which so many Coloradoans covet
like they are precious jewels and then give us nothing but howling winds and high temperatures! Oh, but the mentality in Colorado is as long as the ski resorts are getting snow, everything is hunky dory. That's complete and utter bulls**t. The irrigated farmers are all good because as there is plenty of snow that has fallen in the mountains to melt down in the spring and fill the reservoirs so they can water their crops. But no one, and I mean NO ONE, ever thinks of the dryland farmer, who relies on the weather for his irrigation. If we don't get some signifcant snowstorms around here by March, my father is going to have to sell out; yes, I mean SELL OUT, LIQUIDATE ALL HIS FARM EQUIPMENT, FIND ANOTHER JOB, HAVE TO QUIT FARMING THE LAND THAT HAS BEEN IN OUR FAMILY FOR 94 YEARS! So before you start saying that you wish for an early spring, consider that some of us actually do rely on winter for our survival.

They did a Mythbusters on this. It turns out that wishing/hoping/praying for snowstorms doesn't work. It also turns out that not one early spring has occured because of wishfull thinking. It was a pretty boring episode, but they did blow something up at the end.
 
Perfect...just the thread I wanna hear when I've already booked my flight from NY to Denver for the Chaser Convention (first time I've ever attended this event). The last thing I need is a major winter storm to screw up my travel plans!

I've lived in the northeast for 30 years, so I'm at least a little familiar with the general winter patterns we get. FWIW, it sounds like this progged blast of cold air will be one of the WNW flow scenarios that funnel the really frigid air down from central Canada. This will likely fire up the lake-effect snow machine across western NY, but not in eastern NY where I live. This arctic express is usually accompanied by fast-moving clipper systems, which bring a quick shot of 2-3" snow, but not much more.

The real snow-makers here are when we get a high parked over the Hudson Bay, which keeps cold air dammed up across the northeast...and then a coastal low rides up the seaboard and explosively deepens, throwing tons of moisture over that cold air. Those are the big 20" snowfalls, but it doesn't look like that's in the cards to me.
 
How dare all of you keep wishing for an early spring! That is extremely selfish; shame on you all!

So before you start saying that you wish for an early spring, consider that some of us actually do rely on winter for our survival.

Well, a much larger number will be paying high natural gas bills, taking away needed money. How dare you wish higher heating bills on millions...lol. But then again, all of us wishing to pay less for heating would be "extremely selfish".

Off to be concerned about every possible angle of everything I hope for.

---end of pointless post---
 
Welp, my take on things... Take what you can, and have fun doing it.

Don't fuss when it's warm, don't fuss when it's cold. I have come to find that there are plenty of other weather features equally as exciting as severe thunderstorms. Obviously if you set out with a bad attitude (or the "Eeyore attitude") then yes, you WILL get SDS. In that case, you only brought it on yourself.

As for Mark F., everything goes both ways. My friends brother and sister died in a car accident because of the winter weather that YOU want to return... See how it goes both ways? There are obvious consequences to everything, for example:

Wishing for that big snowstorm: Car accidents, people get killed
Wishing for that big tornado: Hits a house killing a family
Wishing for a nice sunny day in July: Someone gets a severe sunburn, dies of skin cancer

See where this is going?
 
Personally, I would like another good cold spell to kill off some bugs that have made a recent comeback in my vicinity. While cold air is unwelcome to most, due to the fact of it being cold, it needs to be cold to slow the moisture evaporating from the topsoil, and to keep trees and such from budding, only to be hit by a "surprise" freeze in late March / early April.
And talking about zonal flows, I like them only on one condition... if the flow weren't so bloody fast so that when a upper level low & trough blow through the area, there may be enough moisture for precipitation and not just a hi / bye as the Low ske-daddles across at mach 2 ;).
I would like a slow moving negative-tilt trough to slowly come my way but I will probably have to wait until spring for that, lol
In the meantime, I'll put up with that developing western ridge / central - eastern trough that may be setting up soon. Helooo cold temps!!!
 
I understand that winter snow leads to spring melt which gets some soil moisture for crops. Since no crops in the Plains are growing right now I wonder how beneficial getting a foot of snow would be if its all going to sublimate before the growing season anyway. I would think those March and April rain or snow storms are far more important for soil moisture replenishment and agricultural interests. And even if the spring is wet you will still need well timed rains during the summer to get a good crop. If a farmer is ever going to experience a drought, by far the best time for it is during the winter. Perhaps all that snow in the Northern Rockies will help keep keep the cap temp a touch cooler for us folks in the Northern Plains this spring and summer which might allow for more storms to pop.
 
If a farmer is ever going to experience a drought, by far the best time for it is during the winter.

Very true. Here in Illinois, we recieved 10 or so inches of rain in the month of January in 2005, 5 inches above average. Many areas were under water for quite some time. However, that was it. We didnt really have a significant rain event until the tropical systems of September swung up this way. The corn crops which are certainly Illinois' biggest market were horribly dry. I'd much rather not get a lot of rain/snow during January, than have a ton but be bone dry the whole spring and summer.
 
im replying to give this thread more exposure, just kinda as a reminder that things havent changed since the original posting.
 
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