• After witnessing the continued decrease of involvement in the SpotterNetwork staff in serving SN members with troubleshooting issues recently, I have unilaterally decided to terminate the relationship between SpotterNetwork's support and Stormtrack. I have witnessed multiple users unable to receive support weeks after initiating help threads on the forum. I find this lack of response from SpotterNetwork officials disappointing and a failure to hold up their end of the agreement that was made years ago, before I took over management of this site. In my opinion, having Stormtrack users sit and wait for so long to receive help on SpotterNetwork issues on the Stormtrack forums reflects poorly not only on SpotterNetwork, but on Stormtrack and (by association) me as well. Since the issue has not been satisfactorily addressed, I no longer wish for the Stormtrack forum to be associated with SpotterNetwork.

    I apologize to those who continue to have issues with the service and continue to see their issues left unaddressed. Please understand that the connection between ST and SN was put in place long before I had any say over it. But now that I am the "captain of this ship," it is within my right (nay, duty) to make adjustments as I see necessary. Ending this relationship is such an adjustment.

    For those who continue to need help, I recommend navigating a web browswer to SpotterNetwork's About page, and seeking the individuals listed on that page for all further inquiries about SpotterNetwork.

    From this moment forward, the SpotterNetwork sub-forum has been hidden/deleted and there will be no assurance that any SpotterNetwork issues brought up in any of Stormtrack's other sub-forums will be addressed. Do not rely on Stormtrack for help with SpotterNetwork issues.

    Sincerely, Jeff D.

Winter 2011-12: Forecasts versus Reality

John Farley

Supporter
Joined
Apr 1, 2004
Messages
1,937
Location
Pagosa Springs, CO
A month or two ago, there was some discussion on this board of how badly long-range forecasts were off for Winter 2011-12. Now that the data are in for climatological winter (December, January, and February) and I've had a little time to analyze the actual patterns compared to what was forecast, I've put together a Web page with some maps comparing the actual winter temperatures and precipitation to long-range forecasts by the NWS and Accuweather. Both predicted patterns that would be fairly typical in a La Nina winter, which this was, and both were off by quite a bit. The maps show the specifics of this, and I speculate about why the forecast may have been wrong, most likely due to a fairly persistent positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. You can view the Web page at:

http://www.johnefarley.com/winter-fcst-actual-11-12.htm
 
Interesting discussion, John. Continuing on the previous discussion you mention, I think there's a big question of causality implied in the common conclusions that weather did so-and-so because of the AO. As suggested by this winter's season, the predictive power of the (N)AO hasn't been well demonstrated by properly-applied statistical research. IMO. I suspect that a stronger case can be made that fluctuating mid-latitude weather patterns cause changes in the (N)AO. FWIW.
 
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