What killed the 2008 season!

[Dave Gallaher]

I guess it could be worse. According to 2007 data France was paying $6.85 a gallon. Of that cost $4.33 was in taxes! While we were paying $3.03 a gallon. Of that cost $.38 was in taxes.
Here is the link.
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw492.html

Updating, US average gasoline taxes for the first quarter of 2008 was 47 cents per gallon.

 

[Justin Turcotte]

I used to buy into the new refinery idea but truth is the oil companies have been expanding many existing facilities. Certainly many smaller less profitable refineries have been shuttered over the years making us more prone to sudden shortages and price spikes should even one large facility fail these days. Existing facilities have generally been running at 87-94% capacity providing only a small cushion should another Katrina or other disaster stike. Consolidation has helped boost efficiency which is of course beneficial for the bottom line and in theory some of the cost savings associated with more efficient output are passed along to the consumer. Perhaps a perceived lack of refining capacity among speculators is adding a few cents to a gallon of gas. According to the California Energy Commission, about 70% of the cost of gas is from the price of crude oil. Only 9% of the price is from refinery operations and profits from them.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.html

It is easy to jump on the bandwagon without first doing some research and educating yourself on any issue.

Getting my post back to the intent of the topic... I will be chasing even if gas hits $5 this summer. If I can spit it with one or more of my coworkers than all is good. Solo shots will likely be limited to a 250 mile radius. I will be paying off about $4k worth of debt in the next couple months which will save about $400 in interest in one year which will more than cover any storm chase gas expenses this summer... and once one bill is knocked out it becomes that much easier to knock out another. I am also supplimenting my income with profits from eBay transactions. This cash infusion will allow me to buy my first even notebook PC to take on the chase. Just about everyone on here will also get a Chinese-budget deficit financed check from Uncle Sam in a few weeks to spend on goodies produced in China or petroleum products from Iran. You can drive a long way with $1200 even if gas is $4+ a gallon.

 

[Chris Strahan]

Although I rarely get a chance to truly chase here in NC like I do on my vacation in the midwest, but the gas prices certainly do make me think twice about chasing here in NC where difficult terrain, fast moving storms and a horrible road network!
Heck, the high fuel costs make me think twice about driving anywhere!!

*sorry to David for an earlier post that helped turn this thread away from gas AND chasing*

 

[Chris Hayes]

I apologize for not reminding you of the 160,000+ troops hunkered down in Middle Eastern oil fields, or the Special Forces overseeing the pipelines and fields in South America. I won't violate forum rules by posting the resumes of our top electeds, most of whom are from the energy industry or its subsidiaries.

Besides not building new refineries, the industry has actually closed something like 50 refineries during the last 20 years through mergers and other stratagies. Those refineries were up and running; they were closed to reduce capacity. There was no issue of 'getting permits' for already functioning refineries. They have merged to the point of virtually eliminating competition among themselves, so collusion isn't necessary. They were offered sites at US military bases to build new refineries, and they passed.

Keeping refining capacity under tight controls guarantees that demand can outpace supply whenever the desire arises to upgrade profits a few more points. It is not in their interest to build new refineries, so blaming it on regulations is not necessarily 100% accurate.

The oil companies are trans-national corporations. They get their profits from gasoline, diesel, asphalt, plastic, and just about every other profit that comes from oil. Considering that in the United States alone, over 150 billion gallons of gaoline is sold per year, their profits arent really that large, if you look at the money they make from the other stuff and international sales.
http://auto.howstuffworks.com/question417.htm how much gasoline is sold in the US per year
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/1139.html oil company profits compared to the taxes the gov't brought in, in 2005

 

[Michael Bishop]

.

EDIT: One good thing about 2008 so far, every time we've been broke after a chase and wonder where our next money is coming from (before paydays), I make a video sale. Thanks to Michael Bishop of Dearborn, MI, we now have gas money and will chase today's event....wouldn't have been able to without that sale. Thanks Mike!!!!!

Glad I pulled the trigger in time for you. Hopefully it helped you out. I'd love to be out there chasing, but as mentioned, fuel cost is the major issue. I could make every chase day here in MI for the year for just the cost of driving to the plains without even chasing.
With your vids, I can have 100% success as an arm-chair chaser, all for less than the cost of a 1 day chase. Gotta love it.

 

[John Hudson]

Wow, hasn't this become an active thread?

We just had a big price hike here in the Wicked Peg, too. But it's not going to ruin my chase season, by any means. I have a scooter that I'll ride all summer, except on rainy days, and it gets 100 miles/gallon. The money I save there I can spend on chases this summer.

As far as the big truck and SUV owners go, I "almost" feel sorry for some of them. I know I'm going to draw flack for saying it, but it is something most of us know in our hearts, anyhow. It's likely that 90% of the big trucks and SUV's out there will never see a dirt road. A large percentage of them will also probably never carry more than two people at a time.

This particular choice of vehicle is due, in large part, to the "bigger is always better" attitude that seems to be so pervasive in society today. Many of them are simply status items, like a Rolex watch or an Armani suit.

Don't get me wrong, everyone has the freedom to drive whatever vehicle they desire. It's what living in a democratic society is all about.

As for chasing, it is all a matter of priority. If you love it, as I do, you'll make adjustments and sacrifices to finance the hobby. It's that simple.

I'll just be focusing more on the real "gravy" days, with great probabilities, and ignore more of the marginal setups. Other than that, it will be status quo.

See you on the Plains.


John

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Someone always has to remind you of the simple division... gas at $3.50 a gallon, chasing with just ONE other person will have you two paying $1.75 a gallon. Go big and fill your car with four people and you aren't even paying a buck per gallon.

I realize a good amount of people in here (myself included) are loners and enjoy the open road alone. Even though I'm a broke college student I'll continue to chase alone in this general region as much as possible. That said, for those huge marathon chases and one to two week expeditions, unless I come across some new found source of income I won't be going solo.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Considering that in the United States alone, over 150 billion gallons of gaoline is sold per year, their profits arent really that large, if you look at the money they make from the other stuff and international sales.

Interesting, but I don't see how it changes the discussion. Wouldn't you agree that current evidence shows that they are in the process of enlarging their gasoline profit margins in the US, bringing them closer to other areas?

It's tempting to also discuss the federal oil subsidies, but I don't want to ignore David's warning regarding this thread.

I think consideration can be applied also to the variance between percentage of profit and volume of profit. A theoretical business that sells a thousand units annually can afford a lower profit percentage than can a business that only sells a hundred units.

 

[Dave Gallaher]

According to the California Energy Commission, about 70% of the cost of gas is from the price of crude oil. Only 9% of the price is from refinery operations and profits from them.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/margins/index.html

It is easy to jump on the bandwagon without first doing some research and educating yourself on any issue.

No bandwagons, thanks. I prefer to do my own research regarding facts, industry spin and oppositional rants. Every bandwagon on the road meets another one going in the opposite direction anyway.

If the CEC figures you quote jive with the DOE figures, that 70% crude pricing represents a ~20% increase in crude pricing percentages since 2004/2005, when they were 47% and 53% respectively. Taxes went from 23% in 2004 down to 19% in 2005 and marketing and distribution costs dropped from 12% to 9%. In the same periods refining costs and profits rose from 18% to 19%.

 

[Mike Smith]

With regard to population growth, the following is from USA Today:

U.N. estimates for 2050 are down from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion. The population is expected to stabilize at 9 billion by 2300. The long-range report marks the first time the U.N. has issued projections for years as distant as 2300, 150 years further out than earlier estimates

Some are estimating the world's population will go flat as early as 2050.

 

[David Drummond]

I see we can't keep it on chasing so I'll just close my thread.