What killed the 2008 season!

[Chris Strahan]

my two cents...
If gas continues to rise, there soon could be a major economic disaster I fear. So gas hits $4 a gallon. Now suddenly some folks who cannot afford to buy that hybrid and are stuck with the gas sucking car they have, can't even make it to work. The jobs they have aren't the greatest, but it used to get them by. Suddenly those jobs become available since the person who used to have the job got fired for not being able to make it to work. No one can now fill that position because it pays to little to make it worthwhile. Now there are more and more folks foreclosing on houses, cars and just plain can’t afford to live. Keep adding this up and there will be huge ripple effects and the economy of the country will suffer dramatically I fear.
How much would gas have to get to per gallon before you could not afford to get to work? If that happens, what happens to your job?

Are we close to an economic meltdown or is this the extreme scenario?

I'd be interested to hear thoughts on this.

I for one hate to say this but would love to see the government gets more involved in the oil companies. I don’t like that they may need to but who else can step in and control the amount of profits they make each quarter? Records are being broken each quarter on the billions of profits they make! Why? Now I also think that maybe it is time to say... sure, build a more efficient refinery that is up to snuff technology wise. The government told them no new ones, but maybe it is time to relax that for now?

I certainly don't have the answers. I am frustrated as all get out with the way things are and don't have many options to change things.
All I know is that there is change coming in the way of alternative fuel cars. That is great news, but until most of us can afford to drive them, we are stuck where we are for a while... and that for a while time period just might sink us if gas prices continue to sky rocket.

*next person to get on the soap box is up. I am done *

 

[Andrew Stoller]

Get an older economy car. That's what I did. 94 Corolla. Cost $3,500 bucks. Do all the preventative maintenance (tune up, timing belt/water pump, belts, check brakes etc.) (transverse inline 4 bangers are easy as pie to work on which saves even more money) so it's reliable out in the field. If I keep it under 70 mph, I can get 38-40 mpg. Makes all the difference in the world. And if I get caught under some baseballs, well, who cares! It's already got body damage...

 

[Terry Tyler]

these gas prices wont fly in my truck...thats why im staying exclusive to the south with like a 400 mile radius MS/AL/AR/TN...

hell, we live way out in the country, its 13.8 miles into town, and 13.8 miles to come back...thats just getting towards town...if you wanna drive around, you can tear into some gas...i remember back when i worked at AIE, i would fill my gas tank up on friday, from E was about $70, then about saturday afternoon its a half tank!!

cant drive no where if you got a big truck, let alone chase a storm...

 

[James Siler]

Do all the preventative maintenance (tune up, timing belt/water pump, belts, check brakes etc.) (transverse inline 4 bangers are easy as pie to work on which saves even more money) so it's reliable out in the field.

See that is something I can't do. And my truck needs alot of maintenance but my father was never really able to show me how to work on my own a vehical. I can do a little. but timing belt water pump. Clueless. I even bought a Chilton Ford repair manuel and the instructions are greek to me.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I miss my little Nissan ... I was getting anywhere from 35mpg to a max of 51mpg while chasing.

Now I have an old Ford Explorer and I'm lucky to get 17mpg on the highway.

... the profits don't go all to the oil companies, though. Many 401ks, retirement funds, etc bank on oil money. While it's easy to look at the oil companies and be mad for the money they are making, but demand is high ... it's a successful business venture. Sure, we could get the government involved, but how much faith do we have in the government? I honestly don't have much... Finally, as far as the oil companies are concerned, we can't forget that they don't set the price of oil ... we can thank OPEC for that.

 

[Kenny Drake]

This is where being in school helps. I'm really good at looking at mediocre chase days and just saying "NO" and sticking with it. With rising gas prices (and school) I will not chase much but I will pick several days that look like the best of the chase season. Of course, this is hard to do because you cannot look 1 month down the line and be able to tell if there will be a much better chase day than a current setup. Driving distance also becomes a factor. If there is a high risk right over my area of course I will chase it.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Yeah, every time I go to the pump I feel like it's time to bend over again and get raped on prices just to fill the green beast. 26 gallon tank and about 15 mpg. Lots of cash to fill up. Definitely local chases should not be missed this year if you are going to chase - as opposed to the long hauls unless you have the extra cash or it is absolutely a special deal. I'll have to think long and hard about trips to Kansas / Nebraska - much less North or South Dakota / Iowa / Minnesota.

Gas prices are somewhat complicated but one of the big drivers of price that most people don't realize is the strength of the US dollar. Oil is sold and indexed by dollars so when the dollar drops oil correspondingly goes up. You can look at a current chart and see the direct inverse relationship. It's actually kind freaky to see. The dollar has been getting weaker for some time. A lot of that has to do with our debt to other nations, out outstanding credit levels in this country, and the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) continually lowering interest rates in order to jump start the economy. Every time they lower rates the dollar weakens and oil goes up. They are expected to lower rates again at least 2 more times. We basically need to get our house in order economically in order to help prices at the pump.

Other factors that influence price are lack of enough refineries (legally we can't add any currently), and the expensive blends that refineries use including a more expensive but less polluting summer blend. World demand and competition such as from China increases prices. Political unrest in oil producing countries or with world security will cause prices to go up. Set production levels such as those created by OPEC if set too low will cause prices to go up.

It's all bad right now. The goofy thing is we had oil issues back in the 70's and we've hardly done anything about it to improve the situation since then. Sure...now we have PEHV's such as the Prius that can get 100mpg - but you can't buy them anywhere yet.

Guess we can all chase on mopeds and bicycles. I actually had a dream once of chasing on a bicycle in the hill country. Yes, it was kind of scary.

Someone asked about economic meltdown - potential breakdown of the economy? Well, as many of you noted when oil prices go up so does the cost of all our goods and services and unfortunately the US is a service economy now. We don't manufacture much anymore. So, in essence higher oil prices are basically like built in inflation. The funny thing is the FED kept lowering interest rates to spur economic demand and consumer spending to help prop up the economy, but oil prices have prevented that from having an effect. At the same time the housing price bubble where many people have all their cash and investments tied into (especially since the dot com bust) has been deflating. It takes a long time for businesses to pass on increased paychecks to their employees even though they have raised their prices. On top of all that we had the whole credit crisis centered around to many sub prime loans being issued. Large amounts of American real estate, financial, etc is owned or owed to foreign investors - that's why when it gets bigger the dollar weakens. It's a sign of our economy and our worth going down. We were actually close to some form of meltdown a few weeks ago when Bear Sterns' (a very large financial house) value plummeted and was failing. If it failed it may have taken a number of other financial institutions with it. The FED provided money for another company (JP Morgan) to purchase Bear which alleviated disaster. It could have been a bit bad though. Housing / real estate in much of the nation has been in a Depression. Much of the rest of the economy is in a mild recession although technically the measure is 2 consecutive quarters of 0 GDP (gross domestic product) growth. We likely haven't hit that, or just did. They usually don't know until after the fact. Appears right now we are improving but it may still be a 'house of cards'.

Well, I'm on a roll so let's mix in increasing governmental programs with associated cost. Nationalizing or socializing has to be financed, and it removes much if not all of the profit and motivation for capitalistic institutions to invest. Our population is aging and social security which is heavily borrowed from by the government for other things is running out of cash. At the same time we are looking at providing national healthcare which will increase more costs. We have a large influx of illegal immigrants which continue to strain our current cost structure with regard to many of these institutions not to mention the affect on crime, or other peoples lives. All the while...corporations are allowed to send their jobs and manufacturing overseas while enjoying protection / benefits as US corporations. Many low income jobs are taken over by illegal immigrants. Just look at housing. Many middle class - white collar jobs are now done by those in India, or Mexico, etc.

Basically we need to balance the US budget. We need work hard and smart. We need to save and invest. We need to protect our border. We need to reform social security and healthcare in an attractive fashion that provides reasonable retirement and good healthcare but not necessarily completely nationalizing it. We need to make corporations responsible to the US and supportive of our economy and our citizen employees. We need to improve and highly educate people. We need to pull people up and motivate them to attain better things for themselves. Let me say also that we likely need to be less carnal and a bit more spiritually centered - working towards higher purposes and not abasing ourselves Jerry Springer style. We need to continue research and development, while protecting our patents. We should streamline our tax economy so it isn't a burden but raises enough revenues. We need to become less dependent on foreign oil, and find alternative ways of powering things that hopefully are green choices too. We need to show responsible social leadership across the world and foster / invest in other mutually beneficial markets and sponsor world peace and prosperity. We need to all live less on credit, and less dependent on foreign investment.

It's a murky state we are in currently to pull ourselves out of. There is much contention and political / spiritual division in this country. A house divided cannot stand. We somehow need to come together in this country, rise up and live up to our American US heritage. Do I see it in McCain, Clinton, or Obama? No, not really. Unfortunately I don't think real change will occur until enough people are hurting. There will have to be real hunger for change, and people will have to really internally understand and agree on what that is before anything worthwhile is done. While that is somewhat a gloomy outlook, I think it is realistic.

Ok, for those of you still with me I guess I got a little carried away. But I think about this kind of stuff all the time.

For now I don't think the economy will melt down...but we won't all really prosper either. Likely our economy and vision as a country will continue in a half dream half nightmare state of existence until something forces us all to wake up and reclaim that which is our birth right.

 

[Chris Strahan]

great input Bill, I enjoyed reading it.
Now I wonder when or what it will take to pull us through all of this

 

[Paul Redmond]

I miss my little Nissan ... I was getting anywhere from 35mpg to a max of 51mpg while chasing.

Now I have an old Ford Explorer and I'm lucky to get 17mpg on the highway.

... the profits don't go all to the oil companies, though. Many 401ks, retirement funds, etc bank on oil money. While it's easy to look at the oil companies and be mad for the money they are making, but demand is high ... it's a successful business venture. Sure, we could get the government involved, but how much faith do we have in the government? I honestly don't have much... Finally, as far as the oil companies are concerned, we can't forget that they don't set the price of oil ... we can thank OPEC for that.

I think that most folks are forgetting that a good chunck of the gas prices are taxes, that rise geometrically with base oil prices. I too am feeling the pinch, not to mention the fact that I hate driving long distances. Though I have to admit, I enjoy the country scenery.

 

[Stephen Levine]

my two cents...
If gas continues to rise, there soon could be a major economic disaster I fear. So gas hits $4 a gallon. Now suddenly some folks who cannot afford to buy that hybrid and are stuck with the gas sucking car they have, can't even make it to work. The jobs they have aren't the greatest, but it used to get them by. Suddenly those jobs become available since the person who used to have the job got fired for not being able to make it to work. No one can now fill that position because it pays to little to make it worthwhile. Now there are more and more folks foreclosing on houses, cars and just plain can’t afford to live. Keep adding this up and there will be huge ripple effects and the economy of the country will suffer dramatically I fear.
How much would gas have to get to per gallon before you could not afford to get to work? If that happens, what happens to your job?

Are we close to an economic meltdown or is this the extreme scenario?

I'd be interested to hear thoughts on this.

I for one hate to say this but would love to see the government gets more involved in the oil companies. I don’t like that they may need to but who else can step in and control the amount of profits they make each quarter? Records are being broken each quarter on the billions of profits they make! Why? Now I also think that maybe it is time to say... sure, build a more efficient refinery that is up to snuff technology wise. The government told them no new ones, but maybe it is time to relax that for now?

I certainly don't have the answers. I am frustrated as all get out with the way things are and don't have many options to change things.
All I know is that there is change coming in the way of alternative fuel cars. That is great news, but until most of us can afford to drive them, we are stuck where we are for a while... and that for a while time period just might sink us if gas prices continue to sky rocket.

*next person to get on the soap box is up. I am done *

I share the sentiments of you and the others who are grieving over the high gas and energy prices. Add to this the extreme cost and limited coverages of health insurance and we are definitely in a major challange mode as a society.

With this crisis comes opportunity, and positive things are on the horizon.
Willie Nelson has opened up fueling stations that deliver refined vegetable oil for cars and trucks. I recently read of another Texas Tycoon who used to be in big oil, just turned 80, and now has ambitious plans to place windmills across the Texas Panhandle and other West Texas locations such as Sweetwater, while giving ranchers a big bonus for hosting these turbines.

He would also like to construct solar power plants from Texas through the sunbelt to SE California. It's not because he's "green". It's because as a life long profit seeking business man he sees lots of money in this and is willing to invest a fortune into making it happen.

We have the technology now to get us off the sinking ship called oil. It's just a matter of having the political Vision, plus perhaps ground-up awareness to start this process going.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Bill, Amen amen amen. You bring up some fantastic points.

I think that most folks are forgetting that a good chunck of the gas prices are taxes, that rise geometrically with base oil prices. I too am feeling the pinch, not to mention the fact that I hate driving long distances. Though I have to admit, I enjoy the country scenery.

Very true Paul, very true ... I remember when I couldn't afford to go to a movie or bowling or out to dinner, I'd just take a drive in the mountains (Montana) ... my senior year in high school (1999), I remember filling up for $0.88/gallon.

Another thing that maybe should be brought up is the ethanol debacle ... it doesn't really help with fuel economy and is making our food REALLY expendy.

 

[Jay Cazel]

Finally, as far as the oil companies are concerned, we can't forget that they don't set the price of oil ... we can thank OPEC for that.

Also don't forget the Commodity Trader's. They are the one's that determan the price. There is no SET price for oil, gas, etc. These guys set the future price by the contracts they sell.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

See that is something I can't do. And my truck needs alot of maintenance but my father was never really able to show me how to work on my own a vehical. I can do a little. but timing belt water pump. Clueless. I even bought a Chilton Ford repair manuel and the instructions are greek to me.

Do you have any friends or family that are gear heads?

Even if you can't do the work, everything is cheaper on an economy car. Besides the great fuel economy, tires are cheaper, parts are cheaper, insurance/registration is cheaper, labor to get things fixed is generally cheaper cause they're easier to work on.

If you guys are really struggling, I'd highly recommend selling the gas guzzler and getting a used 4 banger econobox. Don't feel ashamed of driving around in a gas sipper. I sold my guzzler about 4 years ago and still feel liberated. Filled up the other day with a bit less than a 1/4 tank left. Took about 8.5 gallons and cost 30 bucks.

On the other hand, my neighbor has a Ford Expedition that takes about 25 gallons per fillup and it costs him 90 bucks a pop to fill it up. I can't imagine having something like an Excursion or a Super Duty - 35 gallon tanks and 12 mpg. Until soccer moms stop driving these kinds of vehicles, we will be in peril as far as gas prices. I know certain people need them, but I get passed all day long by middle aged women - them being the only occupant in their huge SUV - going 20 mph over the speed limit.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

I miss my little Nissan ... I was getting anywhere from 35mpg to a max of 51mpg while chasing.

Now I have an old Ford Explorer and I'm lucky to get 17mpg on the highway.

... the profits don't go all to the oil companies, though. Many 401ks, retirement funds, etc bank on oil money. While it's easy to look at the oil companies and be mad for the money they are making, but demand is high ... it's a successful business venture. Sure, we could get the government involved, but how much faith do we have in the government? I honestly don't have much... Finally, as far as the oil companies are concerned, we can't forget that they don't set the price of oil ... we can thank OPEC for that.

That right there is the most mis-understood fact about all multi-national corporations. You and I and everyone, through our 401Ks, pension plans, mutual funds etc., own the vast majority of XOM. And if they do good, so do we.

Here is one of the most brilliant takes on the subject.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/02/business/02every.html

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Sure, we could get the government involved, but how much faith do we have in the government?

Actually, at this time the oil industry IS the government.