What killed the 2008 season!

[Chad Cowan]

Also don't forget the Commodity Trader's. They are the one's that determan the price.

These people are just intermediaries and don't determine the price of anything. If they could single handedly determine if the price of a commodity went up or down, there would be a lot more people in the business. If their clients or firms speculate the price of oil will rise in the future, they will purchase contracts for them; if they speculate the price of oil will fall in the future, they will purchase a call option or sell their existing contracts. The aggregate and expected demand of the commodity (not the commodities contracts) determine the price.

There is no SET price for oil, gas, etc. These guys set the future price by the contracts they sell.

You say that there is no set price and then you say that 'these guys' set the price. Please explain.

 

[scott r currens]

A lot of that has to do with our debt to other nations, out outstanding credit levels in this country, and the Federal Reserve Bank (FED) continually lowering interest rates in order to jump start the economy. Every time they lower rates the dollar weakens and oil goes up. They are expected to lower rates again at least 2 more times. We basically need to get our house in order economically in order to help prices at the pump.

I think you hit the nail right on the head. Fuel prices aren't the real problem. The real problem is that most Americans are using debt to live a lifestyle that is beyond their means. Our politicians and the way they handle our money is a reflection of us.

Saving the economy starts at home.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--A credit card doesn't count as money.
--The only things you deserve are what you can pay cash for.
--Know how much money you make and how much you spend.
--Have a plan for your money. It's called a budget.
--Spend less money that you make! Yeah it’s a novel idea in this society.
--Pay off your loans and get out of debt.

If you are in debt and sick of it but don't know where to start. Send me a PM and I'll get you moving in the right direction.

Scott

 

[Chad Cowan]

That right there is the most mis-understood fact about all multi-national corporations. You and I and everyone, through our 401Ks, pension plans, mutual funds etc., own the vast majority of XOM. And if they do good, so do we.]

I think that's exactly what Dann was saying. Profits are the bane of capitalism and progression. Companies need to be rewarded for their innovation, otherwise there won't be any more of it (see how communism worked out). This isn't to say that the exec's 'golden parachutes' and pensions are justified, but they shouldn't be looked at as the enemy.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Definitely local chases should not be missed this year if you are going to chase - as opposed to the long hauls unless you have the extra cash or it is absolutely a special deal. I'll have to think long and hard about trips to Kansas / Nebraska - much less North or South Dakota / Iowa / Minnesota.

Woohoo! I hope high gas prices achieve less chasers up this a way. It'd almost be worth it to me. I just doubt it will have much of an effect. Our hobby really ain't much of a year round deal. And when you think of the cost of gas during the small peak, saved for throughout an entire year....it just doesn't seem so troublesome yet...and I chase alone. And shoot, I can assure you I'm not part of this whole "wealthy" crowd, considering chasing has been my soul income for 4 years now.

20,000 miles at 25mpg = 800 gallons at $2.75 avg = $2200
20,000 miles at 25mpg = 800 gallons at $3.75 avg = $3000

So say last year was $2.75 avg and this year manages to avg $3.75, that's still just an added $800 to come up with over an entire year(at 25mpg). If one just cuts out fast food and "treats" at the grocery store, you probably get a good chunk of that out of the way. I(and I bet most) need to eat less anyway.

Sometimes to me it seems like the biggest complainers about it killing their ability to chase, are the ones that probably didn't plan or have the desire to chase much anyway(*not all!*). I just hate that when I hear from some that always seem to have to explain why they don't chase as much anymore(like the too many chasers excuse...or some job that manages to allow NOT ONE chase all year). I think if you truly like to chase in the first place, you'll figure out ways to get there. Errrr, maybe that should be LOVE to chase. I think most just sort of like to chase.

I don't know. When I look at the fact I will still chase as much as before, I figure anyone can afford it. Then again it's my life, and I only have to pay rent, food and utilities. After those, the gas chunk just isn't that hard to come up with over a whole year....yet. It feels a whole lot worse than it is while paying for it, compared to looking at the cost over the whole year.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

FWIW the real price of Gas is not all that high, been much higher over the course of the Automobile, in my opinion gas is still WAY under priced, its one of the most highly demanded resources, all while being one of the most limited Long Run supply resources, in a true free market gas would Cost WAY more than it does now. IMO gas prices now aren't the reason for our current economic problems, it was the unreasonably cheap gas in the 1990's that set us up for this.
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Gasoline_inflation_chart.htm

 

[Chris Nuttall]

I don't like driving a long distance by myself anyway, so missing out on a chase that's more than a 4-hour drive is not a big deal to me anymore. Back when I was in school, I would chase every chance I had. After I graduated and started working, my chase opportunities decreased dramatically. Generally, I find myself only picking the biggest risk days to chase, and if it's not local, someone must be going with me or else the trip is off.

This year, I've planned a 5-day stretch to chase from May 29-June 2. If I have to go to Nebraska, I will. I'll have a full car, so gas and hotel costs will be split 3-4 ways. If we're unlucky and the death ridge sets in by then, we'll just have a good reunion, chill, and do some outdoors stuff around the Panhandles.

Unfortunately, until we get some rain in the Panhandles and the westerlies relax, I don't see much of a chance for local chases for me.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

I agree 100% with Scott. My first few years of chasing 2000-2003 I ran up nearly $8000 in credit card debt from chasing, buying equipment, etc. Starting in 2004 I refused to use credit cards for chasing and began paying for everything with money I saved. It does help having a job with a chase tour company, but in the long run the money you save by not having to pay interest on credit cards will be enough for a few chases. I am happy to say as of this spring I no longer have any more credit card debt, and I have learned to only buy what I have the money to buy.

I don't eat out much, and typically buy deli meat and other non-processed, non-packaged foods including fruits and vegetables. If you take a few extra minutes to make a meal from scratch, you'll save a LOT of money, and not to mention you'll probably save a lot of medical bills in the future.

Saving the economy starts at home.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--Stop buying things you don't have the money to pay for.
--A credit card doesn't count as money.
--The only things you deserve are what you can pay cash for.
--Know how much money you make and how much you spend.
--Have a plan for your money. It's called a budget.
--Spend less money that you make! Yeah it’s a novel idea in this society.
--Pay off your loans and get out of debt.

 

[Brian McKibben]

The sad thing about my car is that the manufacturer requires that you put premium in the tank to keep the engine from knocking. However, with premium around $3.70 a gallon I can't afford to do that.

My advice is to get all the chasing in now before gas hits $4.00 per gallon.

On a side note, try investing in some oil companies to supplement your chase income. You could get some pretty nice returns.

 

[Tony Perkins]

This thread has a lot of excellent points. I'd like to endorse the points where your choice of a chase vehicle is not something you are stuck with. You can trade in your 17 MPG truck for a 35 MPG compact (that runs on the cheaper regular gas as a bonus). It all depends what you're willing to sacrifice for the rest of the non chase year.

 

[John Olexa]

Sometimes I'm glad I only shoot lightning. I only have to drive a few miles in any given storm.

 

[David Drummond]

This thread has a lot of excellent points. I'd like to endorse the points where your choice of a chase vehicle is not something you are stuck with. You can trade in your 17 MPG truck for a 35 MPG compact (that runs on the cheaper regular gas as a bonus). It all depends what you're willing to sacrifice for the rest of the non chase year.

Unless of course your choice of vehicle isn't paid off yet. Mine won't be for another year. My gas mileage isn't that bad, I can run 400-500 miles on that 26 gallons. I am considering downsizing once this is paid for. I don't know. A lot of things to consider at that time.

 

[Roger Brown]

On the other hand, my neighbor has a Ford Expedition that takes about 25 gallons per fillup and it costs him 90 bucks a pop to fill it up. I can't imagine having something like an Excursion or a Super Duty - 35 gallon tanks and 12 mpg. Until soccer moms stop driving these kinds of vehicles, we will be in peril as far as gas prices. I know certain people need them, but I get passed all day long by middle aged women - them being the only occupant in their huge SUV - going 20 mph over the speed limit.

I drive a diesel powered Super Duty and have a 29 gallon tank. I avg. about 14mpg and diesel is up to $4.25. I also have a Mustang that gets 22mpg. Both get better mileage on highway trips though. Those are the vehicles that I chose to own/drive. What does it matter if a "soccer mom" is the only person you see in a SUV? Maybe she is going to pick up a bunch of kids. Maybe they can only afford one vehicle and it has to be able to hold everyone in the family. Who wastes more oil, someone in a "gas guzzler" or some CEO traveling all over the country/world on a business trip? All the people driving Hybrids thinking they are saving the world are sadly mistaken. If they really want good mpg's they should check out diesel power. VW Jetta's with TDI diesels easily get 45-50mpg, with no nasty batteries to replace in a few years. But if they want a Hybrid, that is their choice.

Just my $.02
Roger

 

[Dennis Sherrod]

Until soccer moms stop driving these kinds of vehicles, we will be in peril as far as gas prices. I know certain people need them, but I get passed all day long by middle aged women - them being the only occupant in their huge SUV - going 20 mph over the speed limit.

Andrew, to some extent I understand what you are saying, but to be fair, did you take into account how much gas all of us as chasers probably burn every year in comparison to the soccer moms and middle aged women in their SUVs? I would bet a bunch of them are probably saying the same about us.
To me, the major problems are not legitimately categorized into one group or one type vehicle.

We, as Americans are fairly accustomed to having what we want, pretty much when and how we want it. On some things, obviously not all.
European countries have been dealing with these kind of gasoline prices for years and years. I was paying these prices and higher 6 - 8 years ago over there.
Compare the cost of a gallon of gas to a gallon of a lot of other liquids. Milk, Juices, Liquor, Water, Cooking Oils, etc. Gasoline is a pretty good deal compared to some of these. Gasoline has only gone up 10 times what it cost 35 years ago. I was paying 30 - 35 cents a gallon when I started driving.
I am guilty of the so called "abuse" of some of these others. I spend 25 bucks for 4 gallons of oil to deep fry a turkey or two, fry some fish and hushpuppies. A gallon of milk $3.50 - $4.00. Let it sit for a day too long and don't drink it, down the drain it goes. Waste water like it will never run out. Depending on the Washing machine.. 25-35 gallons to wash a few shirts, socks, jeans. Down the drain afterward. Wash the car, down the drain. etc, etc.

 

[Jay Cazel]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Cazel
Also don't forget the Commodity Trader's. They are the one's that determan the price.

These people are just intermediaries and don't determine the price of anything. If they could single handedly determine if the price of a commodity went up or down, there would be a lot more people in the business. If their clients or firms speculate the price of oil will rise in the future, they will purchase contracts for them; if they speculate the price of oil will fall in the future, they will purchase a call option or sell their existing contracts. The aggregate and expected demand of the commodity (not the commodities contracts) determine the price.


This is true to a point; price is determined by supply and demand. Traders and speculators can manipulate price somewhat but it all comes down to supply and demand.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Cazel
There is no SET price for oil, gas, etc. These guys set the future price by the contracts they sell.

You say that there is no set price and then you say that 'these guys' set the price. Please explain.

I guess I should have said the traders don’t set the final price; the market sets the price, they (the traders)just set the starting price by the price of the last contracts that where bought at. There is no one person, corporation or government body other than the market place its self that sets the price, it is what the market demands that sets wholesale and retail price, such as for gasoline, oil, home heating oil, wheat, etc. The traders don't determind the price because they are traders, but the price is determind by there actions when purchasing contacts.

 

[Andrew Stoller]

What does it matter if a "soccer mom" is the only person you see in a SUV?

It matters because it contributes to high fuel prices! I mean, on my morning commute, I constantly see people in huge SUVs driving to work and speeding. I work with a lady who drives an Expedition - she has no kids, never uses it for towing or off roading etc. And yup, she complains about gas prices just like all of us. I shake my head and laugh.

You can drive whatever you want. That's your American right. But at some point, people are gonna have to make some serious choices in the coming years about what they drive. But if you drive a gigantic gas hog, IMO, you have little right to complain about high gas prices - if you don't use the vehicle for what it's meant. If you have a bunch of kids, go 4 wheeling, tow a trailer, work in construction or on a ranch, then sure, that's a legitimate use for a big truck. But commuting to work 5 days a week? Come on!

my $.02