Typhoon #24W / Durian

Again, another explosion undergoing. As I suspected, diffluent jet streak and a tropical point of source linked directly over the storm. It is on its way to CAT 5.... According to present tracks, it will hit Manila at full strength or something less than that......... I've been there the year after Angela (November 1995, I've been there in 1996), the mega-city was still shaken. It will be a mess, unfortunately.

There are tops at < -90C in the northern eyewall !!!
 

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JTWC has 1200Z intensity as T7.0 and 135 kt -- super typhoon status, and the track set to hit Manilla directly. Even if the track continues to shift south, Manilla will still be on the worst side of the storm.

JMA peaked the intensity at 105 kt at 1200Z, which equates to 120 kt. AFWA determined T6.5, which is 125 kt. So there is some question as to whether the typhoon has reached "super typhoon" status. This is academic. I'm sure I've heard Max Mayfield say this (which means he's probably said it at least several hundred times) in so many words, "The difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 5 is like the difference between being run over by a mac truck and a train." Unlike Chebi, Durian has maintained fairly good structure, so it is surely at least a Cat 4. However a very recent microwave pass from about 1130Z showed a spiral band structure, with the strongest convection slightly further away from the very small eye -- and the proximity to land has resulted in a slight lack of symmetry on IR, so maybe quite a bit of weakening could occur prior to landfall. Also Manilla won't see the worst of the storm because it will weaken as it crosses land.

Update -- looking at the last couple IR images, it does appear that some weakening is occuring and fairly quickly. I'm not sure how to interpret the microwave image, but possibly the pinhole eye is about to collapse. There would be some time before landfall for changes in the organization and structure of the storm, but with the proximity to land it isn't clear to me whether this would allow for restrengthening. However even given the recent appearance, I'd assume JTWC will still go with their 1200Z sat fix and upgrade to a super typhoon (they upgraded Chebi just prior to landfall when it was also obvious that the structure of the storm was not as coherent).
 
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Yeah, it's beginning to weaken now - possibly an eyewall replacement cycle, similar to what happened to Chebi. I don't expect reintensification before landfall in Luzon.
 
Haven't been able to post as I've been swamped at work today, and am about to jump into another couple hours of database migrations that have to be done after work hours.

Simone -- the tropo is colder in the West Pacific, so cloud tops that cold are not so impressive. They may not even be reaching the top, even at that temp.

I kind of jumped the gun in mid-morning and assumed a major weakening trend was underway. Doesn't look to be the case now. Intensity estimates are holding steady at Cat 4, and what is worse, the ERC seems to be completing, and fairly quickly. That close to land, I was a little surprised, especially after earlier microwave passes today.

I'll be back later, although my posts are probably boring everyone here out of their minds! -- but I notice hardly anyone reads this thread anyway. :)

Update: This more recent microwave image just became available on the web, and it is very bad as you can see (if anyone wouldn't mind, please send me a PM on how to embed an image in this post rather than providing a link -- thanks in advance):

tc_home2.cgi


I have never seen an ERC complete this quickly.

A second microwave image from only an hour later -- look how much the eye warmed and cleared out in just that short time:

tc_home2.cgi
 
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I've noticed that typhoons this year have been really dependent on the diurnal maximum for strong intensification, then just as day comes out, the storm stablizes. This is threading the needle, going through Lagonoy Gulf, it seems, just south of Catanduanes Island. I've seen significant intensification occur even in bays in gulfs this year (Xangsane being an example).

I am afraid that with such slow motion and the eyewall grinding through the big cities Virac and Legazpi, and with the track taking it through Manila, that when all is set and done, the devastation will be immense indeed. This is not a quick-hitter in mountainous, rural terrain as Cimaron and Chebi was. This is definitely more similar to Xangsane, and it decimated the Philippines.

Here's a map: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/Ph_physical_map.png

Virac is on the southern end of Catanduanes island.
 
Durian is smashing the Philippines right now. Geoff Mackley is in Naga, and in two hours it will be filming a direct hit of a monster ! Eye recently reorganized and cleared out, while deep convection expanded. Central Philippines are notorious to support brief re-intensification of cyclones that come from the East or E-SE, while Luzon island dramatically weaken them.

This is the last observation available from Virac:
10:00 AM78 °F / 26 °C 77 °F / 25 °C 96%27.80 in / 941 hPa 5 miles / 8 kilometers NE73.8 mph / 118.8 km/h

I guess we will loose the strongest one (center still not passed at 10:00 AM), but is surely a good one ! TY sustained winds, I cannot imagine the gusts ! And the average is hourly in these observation.... Maybe they are in the range of 100 mph + 1-minute, gusting to over 130 mph.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/h...tml?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Cheers,
Simone

PS: let's pray for the Philippines...
 
Just out on the news is that 146 people were killed from landslides caused by Durian on Mount Mayon, south of Manilla. Also in the article:

On the island of Marinduque, trees were uprooted, lamp posts wrenched out and roofs swept from homes.

"It's the worst in our history. Almost all houses were damaged by the typhoon in the province," Congressman Edmund Reyes said on local radio.​

As news trickles in over the next couple days, it looks like the country will have taken a very hard hit from this typhoon. Another news article lists over 100 dead, but only 20 of those were from the mudslide. The islands that were in the initial path of the typhoon, that took the highest winds, appear to have been practically leveled:

Fernando Gonzales, governor of badly hit Albay province, said 108 bodies had been found but that recovery operations were continuing. The figure did not include at least one person killed in adjacent Camarines Sur province, which reported that its capital was flattened.

Undersecretary Dr. Graciano Yumul of the Department of Science and Technology said the storm was particularly damaging because wind gusts hit 165 mph when Durian came ashore Thursday in Catanduanes, an island province with no mountains to break the storm’s momentum.

“So it really destroyed the island that it hit,â€￾ Yumul said.​

The Philippine web site, Typhoon2000, reported that as the eye passed over Virac there were gusts of 265 kph (roughly 145 kt, or 165 mph).

After emerging into the South China sea, microwave passes showed that Durien still had some notable organization -- an eye and partial eyewall remained -- but water vapor imagery showed dry air repeatedly slicing into the storm, and so basically it is done and will spin down over the next couple days.

Fri aft -- news continues to be quite horrible. No one has been able to get to what is likely the hardest-hit island, Catanduanes. They undoubtably took the highest winds, from the northern eyewall, when Durian had just about finished an ERC, the eye was clearing out, and it was still intensifying.

I also found out that the Bicol area of Albay, which includes Mount Mayon, where the lahars occured, is one of the poorer areas, so I'm sure many of the buildings were not of the type that were built to a building code to withstand typhoons, although there were some concrete structures for this purpose. Unfortunately people in the path of the lahar were trapped in those concrete buildings. I read that Mount Mayon is around 2500m, and since the highest winds are usually around 500m (the avg dropsounde profile), it's no wonder that the mudslides occured, between the extensive rain (they received on the order of 20 inches of rain) and the winds -- and that day's high-res vis sat image showed the area where the volcano is located was under a convective burst in the southwestern eyewall as the storm moved inland.
 
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