Tropical Storm Debby

[ChristianTerry]

Alright since nobody has posted on this I'll start. As of now Tropical Storm Debby has been given a minimum central pressure of 998mb. Maximum Sustained Winds have been set at 50 MPH. As of now it is nearly stationary due to very little steering winds, but later this week a ridge should pick it up and swing it towards the Texas coast as most of the reliable models show. However the GFS has remained consistent with taking this storm toward Florida. GFS has not been very reliable however and so I'm fairly confident that Debby will take the Western course. The question now is where will it come ashore? This storm is also still very disorganized with all the convection off to the east of the center due to shear destroying the northern edge.

 

[Keith Wilson]

The center jumped north last night, so the models are likely to trend eastward. It is almost due south of me here in Walton County and drifting north. Coastal areas of the Panhandle are getting pounded with high surf and beach erosion right now and numerous tornado warnings for south Florida this morning. It also looks like the shear is relaxing considerably, leaving the door open for some strengthening today.

 

[MClarkson]

It is interesting to see that the GFS and ECMWF have been taking the storm in basically opposite directions, and that both models have been consistent with this for the last day or so.

 

[STexan]

I've read the forecast discussion since they've moved the track more than a 100 degrees in the matter of six hours but not really sure what their current reasoning is. I'm a little unclear what did or did not happen to cause it to NOT turn westward and why so many models missed it completely and why one almost nailed it early on. I suspect the gulf is going to see a lot more activity before this season is done.

As of 17:30 CDT there is virtually no center or circulation and it seemed to have split apart into several pieces. A lot of activity going on again over the Yucatan at this same hour but I guess this is basically afternoon heating?

 

[ChristianTerry]

Still a lot of questions regarding landfall on this. Although most of the models are now suggesting a Florida or Alabama landfall, there is still much question regarding the strength it will have. Convection has decreased significantly as the sun has set. Probably due to the large amount of dry air sitting over Texas with that upper level ridge being swung towards Debby. While this might increase the severe potential at least for the short term, it may end up weakening this system. It will be interesting to see the strength tomorrow given it is not moving.

 

[Keith Wilson]

Incredible rainfall totals coming out of the Big Bend area south of Tallahassee. My son has measured nearly 17" in Wakulla county over the past 12 hours and 23" over the past 2 days. Catastrophic flooding is occurring tonight.

 

[MClarkson]

Chalk this up as a win for the GFS. It had the slow moving track over Florida with a weak system but prolonged heavy rain forecast days ago, when most of the other models were taking the storm west.