Total Solar Eclipse April 8, 2024 weather prospects

[JamesCaruso]

I cancelled my Austin hotel but still have Dallas, Arkadelphia and Maine. I will have to make a final call in the next 24-48 hours depending upon each hotel’s cancellation policies and reservation dates (I was planning to fly out on Saturday, so my Dallas reservation starts Saturday, but my Arkadelphia reservation does not start until Sunday). Despite the model disagreement that Dan notes, far upstate NY and New England are the only areas that look favorable on both the Euro and the Canadian (and not great, but still the relative best, even on the GFS).

So I am leaning heavily toward New England at this point. I have mixed feelings about that - it’s a shorter trip for me, but the road network is sparse, and there is likely no cell coverage up there. The snow is a pain the butt - going to have to pack boots now just to be able to stand on the side of the road to look up at the sky?!? This being a family trip, I was looking forward to it being the first time in TX for my wife and daughters. We have been to Maine before, albeit not to the specific areas we will need to go. Our itinerary includes a flight to Boston and then a drive to Bangor. There’s a possibility I might choose to stay in Boston and drive from there to upstate NY, like around Elizabethtown. That decision can be deferred until the weekend.

 

[Cody Taylor]

I cancelled my Austin hotel but still have Dallas, Arkadelphia and Maine. I will have to make a final call in the next 24-48 hours depending upon each hotel’s cancellation policies and reservation dates (I was planning to fly out on Saturday, so my Dallas reservation starts Saturday, but my Arkadelphia reservation does not start until Sunday). Despite the model disagreement that Dan notes, far upstate NY and New England are the only areas that look favorable on both the Euro and the Canadian (and not great, but still the relative best, even on the GFS).

So I am leaning heavily toward New England at this point. I have mixed feelings about that - it’s a shorter trip for me, but the road network is sparse, and there is likely no cell coverage up there. The snow is a pain the butt - going to have to pack boots now just to be able to stand on the side of the road to look up at the sky?!? This being a family trip, I was looking forward to it being the first time in TX for my wife and daughters. We have been to Maine before, albeit not to the specific areas we will need to go. Our itinerary includes a flight to Boston and then a drive to Bangor. There’s a possibility I might choose to stay in Boston and drive from there to upstate NY, like around Elizabethtown. That decision can be deferred until the weekend.

I am sort of in the same situation, except i will be driving from Kansas to Maine. I have been seeing the models suggest a clearing in far southeastern Missouri, however the New England area has been showing consistently clear. I plan on departing tomorrow morning from Kansas to either northern New York or Maine. I am concerned about traffic in that area, especially on eclipse day. As you mentioned, i imagine the road network will be challenging as well. I have all maps downloaded in advance and plan on arriving Sunday. Good Luck!

 

[JamesCaruso]

I am sort of in the same situation, except i will be driving from Kansas to Maine. I have been seeing the models suggest a clearing in far southeastern Missouri, however the New England area has been showing consistently clear. I plan on departing tomorrow morning from Kansas to either northern New York or Maine. I am concerned about traffic in that area, especially on eclipse day. As you mentioned, i imagine the road network will be challenging as well. I have all maps downloaded in advance and plan on arriving Sunday. Good Luck!

Thanks, and good luck to you too! I was considering southeast MO (driveable from my Arkadelphia hotel) but models are much more consistent for upstate NY and New England.

You know what kills me? I could have done away with all these plans and just stayed at my brother in law’s house in Orange County NY and then driven up to Elizabethtown 3.5 hours. I may still end up doing that, with a load of flight credits to show for it all.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I have lodging in Shreveport, LA and at my parents’ place in the Pittsburgh area. I figured that would get me within range of anything from south Texas through upstate NY, keeping my place here in STL as the “base”/launching point. I figured in a worst-case scenario, I’d go to one of those alternate locations Sunday, then leave as early as midnight and be able to make it anywhere in that range. If the Euro is right, it’s my worse-than-worst case scenario - realistically I can’t get to Maine in time.

I’m not sure what I’ll do. If the Midwest cloud hole/cold frontal passage still looks possible here, I can’t say I’d be very motivated to make the 2-day drive to Maine. I don’t see how it would be possible to pull that off from here. I’d need to head to Pittsburgh on Saturday and make that my launching point, and just see how far I can make it northeast in a hail-Mary attempt. Will need to make that call by tomorrow afternoon.

Definitely thankful I got to see 2017 at this point.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

The forecasts for southern Illinois seem to be getting better as time passes; current indications from NWS are for only 20-25% cloud cover at eclipse time with "medium" confidence in the forecast. Meanwhile the forecast keeps getting worse for Texas and Arkansas. My question is: what are the odds that a lot of the people who end up bailing on TX and AR head up to MO and IL instead? And if they do, how much worse will the traffic situation be? I know there are a lot of apocalyptic traffic predictions for the totality path out there but I heard those last time around (2017) and we avoided them by sticking to back roads.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Traffic is going to be awful, especially if a lot of Texans bail. I still have my room in Dyersburg TN which seems like my best bet. Like the rest of yall, I'm really really really not wanting to go to New England. The roads are going to be severely screwed up there.

Really glad I got to see 2017 as well.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Just booked a hotel in Keene, NH. Doing hurricane chase-spec preps with extra fuel and food. Likely heading to Pittsburgh Saturday morning depending on cloud situation. We'll punch as far as we can go northeast if needed.

Lots of hotels still available outside of the path up there. Some inside the path but $600 and up per night.

 

[Brian McWatters]

For those in Texas or Arkansas, here is the current NWS cloud cover prediction for the eclipse:

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I have a friend who lives directly in the path in SW Arkansas so I'm staying there and at this point I'm just hoping for a break in the clouds for 4 minutes that afternoon. Simply going off the GFS latest run, I can't imagine the chaos of everyone packing into the tips of MO/IL and NY/VT/NH/ME and in a possible case of addition by subtraction, it may be a better experience to avoid the eclipse as to be in it with the masses.

(kidding, I think)

 

[KenMcWatters]

Perhaps I'm an optimist, but I like the look of N Texas (where I'll be) and NE into the Midwest. I saw the 2017 eclipse in Missouri through a thin veil of cirrus. It didn't diminish the experience at all. So if it's similar, it would be a good outcome in those areas of the south central US. I understand those who want completely clear skies, and it appears that's only guaranteed in New England. That's the conundrum, it's like an anti-storm chase!

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's still too early to make a definitive call on cloud cover based on latest models. But I've at least seen some more optimistic forecasts today. The GFS still sucks, and always has. But here are some other global models (including some ML/AI WP models):

ECMWF 12Z

Yeah...kinda sucks for Texas still, but I'm not sure just how dense those medium cyans represent. At least there are few or no low-mid-level clouds. I think there's a chance of seeing something with upper level cloudiness. Mid-low-level clouds are for sure a sight-stopper.

Canadian 12Z


Kunyu dev 12Z

Shows substantial clearing at least int he Midwest.

 

[JamesCaruso]

To everyone worried that the northeast is going to be too much traffic - I think that’s just the typical bad rap on the metro corridor of NYC to Boston. Fact is that only the most serious people are going to bother with this. Most average joes do not even understand that totality is not 1% different from 99% - it’s 1000% different (even though the math doesn’t work ) They are not going to drive from places like Boston and NYC. I would actually be more worried about places like southeast MO or southern IL, if there’s one relatively small region that is clearer than the surrounding ones, and people converge on it from all sides - from Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Memphis, Dallas, etc.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Hoping Indiana gets into and stays in the clear, not only so that more people can see the eclipse but so that eclipse chasers from the Chicago metro area might head in that direction and not clog up I-55 or other north/south roads through central Illinois. (Though this time around they'd probably take I-57 toward Effingham, Mt. Vernon and points south)

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well my TX plans are cancelled and I’m locked in for New England. I fly to Boston on Saturday and stay there Saturday night. On Sunday night I have two hotel options - Bangor or Littleton, NH. Littleton NH would be my base of ops for northern VT (will try to stay away from Burlington). Bangor would be base of ops for anywhere in Maine. Road network is very sparse in northwestern Maine, with few if any places to stop (something to worry about with my wife and two girls in the car ). So I would only stay in Bangor if eastern Maine turns out to be the best spot. Hard to imagine a scenario where western Maine is any better than Vermont, so I doubt I’ll end up in Maine unless eastern Maine somehow turns out to be best. I think that’s doubtful, in fact Euro shows clouds in eastern Maine as of 0Z 4/5 and it’s closer to the large upper low. Looks like ridging should help keep clouds at bay further west in Maine / NH / VT.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm about 80% of the way towards bailing on my S TX target. Last night and this morning I managed to nab hotels in Texarkana and Jefferson City for not-egregious rates (there were actually some really cheap nightly rates in Texarkana...granted, much lower quality of rooms).

I've never been to San Antonio or near the Mexican border down there and was really excited to get to see some new terrain. But the forecasts for that area just are not improving. The Canadian model is the only one I've seen that is really giving much hope for that area, and I'm not sure if that model is underdoing cloud coverage compared to the others. The mid-Mississippi valley is looking like a much better option within driving range for me (not even considering New England even though that could be some of the best show).

The next two model cycles (tonight's 00Z and tomorrow's 12Z) will offer me the information I need to make a more-or-less final-commitment call. The 60-hr RRFS and 3-km NAM will actually get into range by tomorrow morning, so those will be pretty informative.