Total Solar Eclipse April 8, 2024 weather prospects

[JamesCaruso]

I cancelled my Austin hotel but still have Dallas, Arkadelphia and Maine. I will have to make a final call in the next 24-48 hours depending upon each hotel’s cancellation policies and reservation dates (I was planning to fly out on Saturday, so my Dallas reservation starts Saturday, but my Arkadelphia reservation does not start until Sunday). Despite the model disagreement that Dan notes, far upstate NY and New England are the only areas that look favorable on both the Euro and the Canadian (and not great, but still the relative best, even on the GFS).

So I am leaning heavily toward New England at this point. I have mixed feelings about that - it’s a shorter trip for me, but the road network is sparse, and there is likely no cell coverage up there. The snow is a pain the butt - going to have to pack boots now just to be able to stand on the side of the road to look up at the sky?!? This being a family trip, I was looking forward to it being the first time in TX for my wife and daughters. We have been to Maine before, albeit not to the specific areas we will need to go. Our itinerary includes a flight to Boston and then a drive to Bangor. There’s a possibility I might choose to stay in Boston and drive from there to upstate NY, like around Elizabethtown. That decision can be deferred until the weekend.

 

[Cody Taylor]

I cancelled my Austin hotel but still have Dallas, Arkadelphia and Maine. I will have to make a final call in the next 24-48 hours depending upon each hotel’s cancellation policies and reservation dates (I was planning to fly out on Saturday, so my Dallas reservation starts Saturday, but my Arkadelphia reservation does not start until Sunday). Despite the model disagreement that Dan notes, far upstate NY and New England are the only areas that look favorable on both the Euro and the Canadian (and not great, but still the relative best, even on the GFS).

So I am leaning heavily toward New England at this point. I have mixed feelings about that - it’s a shorter trip for me, but the road network is sparse, and there is likely no cell coverage up there. The snow is a pain the butt - going to have to pack boots now just to be able to stand on the side of the road to look up at the sky?!? This being a family trip, I was looking forward to it being the first time in TX for my wife and daughters. We have been to Maine before, albeit not to the specific areas we will need to go. Our itinerary includes a flight to Boston and then a drive to Bangor. There’s a possibility I might choose to stay in Boston and drive from there to upstate NY, like around Elizabethtown. That decision can be deferred until the weekend.

I am sort of in the same situation, except i will be driving from Kansas to Maine. I have been seeing the models suggest a clearing in far southeastern Missouri, however the New England area has been showing consistently clear. I plan on departing tomorrow morning from Kansas to either northern New York or Maine. I am concerned about traffic in that area, especially on eclipse day. As you mentioned, i imagine the road network will be challenging as well. I have all maps downloaded in advance and plan on arriving Sunday. Good Luck!

 

[JamesCaruso]

I am sort of in the same situation, except i will be driving from Kansas to Maine. I have been seeing the models suggest a clearing in far southeastern Missouri, however the New England area has been showing consistently clear. I plan on departing tomorrow morning from Kansas to either northern New York or Maine. I am concerned about traffic in that area, especially on eclipse day. As you mentioned, i imagine the road network will be challenging as well. I have all maps downloaded in advance and plan on arriving Sunday. Good Luck!

Thanks, and good luck to you too! I was considering southeast MO (driveable from my Arkadelphia hotel) but models are much more consistent for upstate NY and New England.

You know what kills me? I could have done away with all these plans and just stayed at my brother in law’s house in Orange County NY and then driven up to Elizabethtown 3.5 hours. I may still end up doing that, with a load of flight credits to show for it all.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I have lodging in Shreveport, LA and at my parents’ place in the Pittsburgh area. I figured that would get me within range of anything from south Texas through upstate NY, keeping my place here in STL as the “base”/launching point. I figured in a worst-case scenario, I’d go to one of those alternate locations Sunday, then leave as early as midnight and be able to make it anywhere in that range. If the Euro is right, it’s my worse-than-worst case scenario - realistically I can’t get to Maine in time.

I’m not sure what I’ll do. If the Midwest cloud hole/cold frontal passage still looks possible here, I can’t say I’d be very motivated to make the 2-day drive to Maine. I don’t see how it would be possible to pull that off from here. I’d need to head to Pittsburgh on Saturday and make that my launching point, and just see how far I can make it northeast in a hail-Mary attempt. Will need to make that call by tomorrow afternoon.

Definitely thankful I got to see 2017 at this point.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

The forecasts for southern Illinois seem to be getting better as time passes; current indications from NWS are for only 20-25% cloud cover at eclipse time with "medium" confidence in the forecast. Meanwhile the forecast keeps getting worse for Texas and Arkansas. My question is: what are the odds that a lot of the people who end up bailing on TX and AR head up to MO and IL instead? And if they do, how much worse will the traffic situation be? I know there are a lot of apocalyptic traffic predictions for the totality path out there but I heard those last time around (2017) and we avoided them by sticking to back roads.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Traffic is going to be awful, especially if a lot of Texans bail. I still have my room in Dyersburg TN which seems like my best bet. Like the rest of yall, I'm really really really not wanting to go to New England. The roads are going to be severely screwed up there.

Really glad I got to see 2017 as well.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Just booked a hotel in Keene, NH. Doing hurricane chase-spec preps with extra fuel and food. Likely heading to Pittsburgh Saturday morning depending on cloud situation. We'll punch as far as we can go northeast if needed.

Lots of hotels still available outside of the path up there. Some inside the path but $600 and up per night.

 

[Brian McWatters]

For those in Texas or Arkansas, here is the current NWS cloud cover prediction for the eclipse:

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I have a friend who lives directly in the path in SW Arkansas so I'm staying there and at this point I'm just hoping for a break in the clouds for 4 minutes that afternoon. Simply going off the GFS latest run, I can't imagine the chaos of everyone packing into the tips of MO/IL and NY/VT/NH/ME and in a possible case of addition by subtraction, it may be a better experience to avoid the eclipse as to be in it with the masses.

(kidding, I think)

 

[KenMcWatters]

Perhaps I'm an optimist, but I like the look of N Texas (where I'll be) and NE into the Midwest. I saw the 2017 eclipse in Missouri through a thin veil of cirrus. It didn't diminish the experience at all. So if it's similar, it would be a good outcome in those areas of the south central US. I understand those who want completely clear skies, and it appears that's only guaranteed in New England. That's the conundrum, it's like an anti-storm chase!

 

[Jeff Duda]

It's still too early to make a definitive call on cloud cover based on latest models. But I've at least seen some more optimistic forecasts today. The GFS still sucks, and always has. But here are some other global models (including some ML/AI WP models):

ECMWF 12Z

Yeah...kinda sucks for Texas still, but I'm not sure just how dense those medium cyans represent. At least there are few or no low-mid-level clouds. I think there's a chance of seeing something with upper level cloudiness. Mid-low-level clouds are for sure a sight-stopper.

Canadian 12Z


Kunyu dev 12Z

Shows substantial clearing at least int he Midwest.

 

[JamesCaruso]

To everyone worried that the northeast is going to be too much traffic - I think that’s just the typical bad rap on the metro corridor of NYC to Boston. Fact is that only the most serious people are going to bother with this. Most average joes do not even understand that totality is not 1% different from 99% - it’s 1000% different (even though the math doesn’t work ) They are not going to drive from places like Boston and NYC. I would actually be more worried about places like southeast MO or southern IL, if there’s one relatively small region that is clearer than the surrounding ones, and people converge on it from all sides - from Chicago, St. Louis, Nashville, Memphis, Dallas, etc.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Hoping Indiana gets into and stays in the clear, not only so that more people can see the eclipse but so that eclipse chasers from the Chicago metro area might head in that direction and not clog up I-55 or other north/south roads through central Illinois. (Though this time around they'd probably take I-57 toward Effingham, Mt. Vernon and points south)

 

[JamesCaruso]

Well my TX plans are cancelled and I’m locked in for New England. I fly to Boston on Saturday and stay there Saturday night. On Sunday night I have two hotel options - Bangor or Littleton, NH. Littleton NH would be my base of ops for northern VT (will try to stay away from Burlington). Bangor would be base of ops for anywhere in Maine. Road network is very sparse in northwestern Maine, with few if any places to stop (something to worry about with my wife and two girls in the car ). So I would only stay in Bangor if eastern Maine turns out to be the best spot. Hard to imagine a scenario where western Maine is any better than Vermont, so I doubt I’ll end up in Maine unless eastern Maine somehow turns out to be best. I think that’s doubtful, in fact Euro shows clouds in eastern Maine as of 0Z 4/5 and it’s closer to the large upper low. Looks like ridging should help keep clouds at bay further west in Maine / NH / VT.

 

[Jeff Duda]

I'm about 80% of the way towards bailing on my S TX target. Last night and this morning I managed to nab hotels in Texarkana and Jefferson City for not-egregious rates (there were actually some really cheap nightly rates in Texarkana...granted, much lower quality of rooms).

I've never been to San Antonio or near the Mexican border down there and was really excited to get to see some new terrain. But the forecasts for that area just are not improving. The Canadian model is the only one I've seen that is really giving much hope for that area, and I'm not sure if that model is underdoing cloud coverage compared to the others. The mid-Mississippi valley is looking like a much better option within driving range for me (not even considering New England even though that could be some of the best show).

The next two model cycles (tonight's 00Z and tomorrow's 12Z) will offer me the information I need to make a more-or-less final-commitment call. The 60-hr RRFS and 3-km NAM will actually get into range by tomorrow morning, so those will be pretty informative.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

The 12Z NAM really wants to put a tube or two down in the path of totality near I-20 to Waco. Geez, I wonder if I can pull off an eclipsenado? This is more stressful than I thought it'd be.

 

[Brett Roberts]

The 12Z NAM really wants to put a tube or two down in the path of totality near I-20 to Waco. Geez, I wonder if I can pull off an eclipsenado? This is more stressful than I thought it'd be.

I am fascinated by the impact of the eclipse itself on this setup. IIRC, GSL accounted for impact of the 2017 eclipse on solar radiation in their development version of HRRR at the time... @Jeff Duda, do you know if NCO's operational RAP/HRRR will do the same this time?

I don't believe any other operational NWP outside of HRRR/RAP is aware of the eclipse. My intuition is that a total eclipse could have quite a substantial impact on a classic dryline setup that is highly diurnally driven. We're taking a pretty big bite out of insolation for a couple hours near peak heating, even far outside the path of totality. Most likely, afternoon high temperatures will verify a hair cooler than non-eclipse-aware NWP suggests, even with full insolation returning by mid-late afternoon.

The actual setup in TX looks messier than a prototypical 6pm dryline, -40 J/kg MLCINH, conditional CI setup that could really get wrecked by an afternoon eclipse... but I actually think that makes it more interesting to watch in some ways. Is there a hypothetical setup where the early afternoon interruption to heating actually transforms it into a bigger deal because it prevents early upscale growth? That's probably a very narrow slice of the outcome space for all possible eclipse-severe interactions, and I doubt that's what we'll actually see Monday. But hey, at least this could be a nice distraction to focus on come Monday afternoon, when many of us who didn't splurge for last-minute New England flights may need one...

 

[Jeff Duda]

IIRC, GSL accounted for impact of the 2017 eclipse on solar radiation in their development version of HRRR at the time... @Jeff Duda, do you know if NCO's operational RAP/HRRR will do the same this time?

I don't believe any other operational NWP outside of HRRR/RAP is aware of the eclipse.

I confirm both of these statements. It should be fascinating watching HRRR forecasts roll in during this event!

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm trying not to kid myself that we can actually have any confidence in cloud cover even the night before. We can't even get that right with most tornado setups (just look at the past 2 events this week, for crying out loud), what makes us think we can do it for the eclipse, haha. I think it's a done deal that I'll be heading to Pittsburgh tomorrow morning. Will be re-evaluating the situation from there. If need be, I can get back here on Sunday - but I'm expecting we'll have to bite the bullet and go northeast.

FWIW, 2017 dissipated nearly the entire Cu field within the path a few minutes before totality. I remember seeing model depictions of the temperature drop in 2017, but I can't remember which one it was.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

The actual setup in TX looks messier than a prototypical 6pm dryline, -40 J/kg MLCINH, conditional CI setup that could really get wrecked by an afternoon eclipse... but I actually think that makes it more interesting to watch in some ways. Is there a hypothetical setup where the early afternoon interruption to heating actually transforms it into a bigger deal because it prevents early upscale growth?

Unfortunately you're right - it looks messy. Interesting hypothesis, though. I will be interested to see how Monday's setup progresses. It'd be on my radar if there was not a total solar eclipse ongoing.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I don't believe any other operational NWP outside of HRRR/RAP is aware of the eclipse.

Look at this Thursday 4/4 12Z Canadian run. I remarked to myself how ironic it was that the only clouds from northeast TX to Indiana were in the eclipse path. And then I wondered, is the model influenced by the eclipse itself?? But the effect seems to be gone in more recent runs.

 

[John Farley]

Since I am committed to viewing the eclipse with family in the STL area, I am pretty much locked in to southern IL or southeast MO. There is a good bit of uncertainty there and could be right up to eclipse time, but the trend has been slightly better and it certainly looks better than some other areas. So I will take my chances. I remember in 2017 in Nebraska there was similar uncertainty, and a lot of cloud cover early in the morning, but it ended up working out fine, Tweaked my target a little east at the last minute then, but as it turned out I could have stuck with my original one, though that would have been stressful as it cleared there with 5 or 10 minutes to spare.

 

[Ben Holcomb]

@John Farley count me in the 2017 cloudy Nebraska gang. Got to clearing out west and had an excellent experience. I think I am still heading to the MO/AR/IL/TN area and hoping for the best.

The 21z RAP tonight is showing tornadoes in the bootheel/NE Arkansas near Blytheville on Sunday night. 2024 is wild, man.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Since I am committed to viewing the eclipse with family in the STL area, I am pretty much locked in to southern IL or southeast MO. There is a good bit of uncertainty there and could be right up to eclipse time, but the trend has been slightly better and it certainly looks better than some other areas. So I will take my chances. I remember in 2017 in Nebraska there was similar uncertainty, and a lot of cloud cover early in the morning, but it ended up working out fine, Tweaked my target a little east at the last minute then, but as it turned out I could have stuck with my original one, though that would have been stressful as it cleared there with 5 or 10 minutes to spare.

I just told my wife the odds of us leaving for S TX tomorrow are down to <1% after seeing the 00Z models come in. Everything I see just looks worse and worse for the area W of SAN, as I had been hoping for. New plan will be to head for Jefferson City Sunday and then down to SE MO (somewhere between Poplar Bluff and Jackson/Cape Girardeau) for the event. Odds are much more favorable for not-too-cloudy skies there.

I also remember the issue with the 2017 eclipse. I'll let excerpts from my write-up on the experience tell the rest of the story:

I had originally targeted the small town of Fairmont, Nebraska, about 60 miles to the southeast, and a bit closer to home than where I ended up. I abandoned the Fairmont target early in the morning after seeing consistent model forecasts of extensive cloud cover over especially southern and eastern Nebraska. I knew the disturbance causing the clouds was moving generally north and east, so I knew I was going to need to get further northwest than I initially planned to give myself the best chance of actually seeing the eclipsed sun during totality.
...
...
...

I made my Fairmont target before 10:00 AM, a clean three hours before totality; way too much cloudiness to the south. Little internal debate was required – I continued onward and jumped on I-80 at the York exit, heading west. Traffic had really dropped off once I crossed into Nebraska, and even in Fairmont there were few on the road. I did see several larger groups in roadside fairgrounds and open fields. Seems this is where the local townspeople decided to go. I suspect they had a disappointing show. Anyway, traffic on 80 was certainly busier than I would expect for a Monday morning, but everyone was still going 75-80 all the way to Grand Island. I briefly considered getting off at exit 318, as it was basically right along the center of the path of totality, and there was a break in the cirrus clouds at this location. However, I wasn't confident the break would last, so I kept going west.

I didn't want to bother with traffic within Grand Island, so I slipped by and eventually got off I-80 at exit 300 near Wood River. I meandered my way north towards Cairo, then dropped off the paved highway and explored the dirt road grid southwest of Cairo.

 

[JamesCaruso]

How proficient is the NAM with respect to cloud cover forecasts?

Which of the CAMs is generally considered best for same-day cloud cover forecasts?