Total Solar Eclipse April 8, 2024 weather prospects

[Ben Holcomb]

Eclipse viewing at 30,000 feet: Delta to offer path-of-totality flight

Fliers can catch the April 8 total solar eclipse in-air from DL 1218, Austin-Detroit.

news.delta.com

 

[Todd Lemery]

Interesting that pivotal weather has included the eclipse path along with the GFS cloud cover map.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Most important thing to note about these flights is that since the sun is rather high in the sky, during the eclipse, the totality is unlikely to be seen outside the aircraft window, unless the plane is banked by about 15-20°. Even then, the viewing positioning is likely to be uncomfortable (crouched on the aircraft floor)

Of course, there are the other standard disclaimers of the flight may not leave on time the flight may be outside of the totality path, etc.

It may be sold out, but anyone with an extra $9750 lying around can possibly book this flight, which is going into the Totality zone using a Cessna Citation X:

https://umbracept.files.wordpress.com/2023/08/umbracept-2024-announcement.pdf

The Citation X has sloped windows, so the eclipse would be seen in comfort even with the high sun angle.

The person putting this flight together has put together several successful eclipse chases in private aircraft.

Hard to imagine how any “eclipse flight” is viable, not only due to the factors that Ben mentioned, but what about the side of the plane you have seats on?!? Can’t have everyone shifting over to the same side of the aircraft during flight!!!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Interesting that pivotal weather has included the eclipse path along with the GFS cloud cover map.

Nice! I don’t think they did that in 2017. Looking good in TX! But I’m not even going to start looking at anything until Monday 4/1 at the earliest!

 

[Dan Robinson]

Both the Euro and GFS are getting interesting with some agreement/consistency on a trough ejection in the Plains/Midwest right around the eclipse date. The GEFS ensemble mean also shows general western troughing during that time. The faster Euro looks good with clear skies behind the front, but that general pattern will be a nail-biter.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Is there a free version of the Euro cloud cover map available? If not, any recommendations for the best pay version of the Euro model suite?

 

[Dan Robinson]

This is the one I normally use, it has the cloud cover maps:

Model charts for USA (Temperature) | ECMWF IFS HRES 0z/12z (10 days)

ECMWF IFS HRES 0z/12z (10 days) - Current model charts of parameter "Temperature" for map "USA"

weather.us

 

[Sean Ramsey]

GFS is sending everyone to Ohio at the moment. It will be fun to see how this evolves.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm beginning to agree with Dan's pessimism, looking at ensemble output. It's early yet, but broad trends suggest a major trough over or near the Rockies next weekend -- meaning it's likely clouds will be an issue over large portions of the TX-OH segment of the path, at minimum.

That isn't to say clouds will actually block the eclipse everywhere along that path, but that isn't the issue. The issue is that the hundreds of thousands of people traveling, or at least willing to be mobile for the eclipse (including the more enthusiastic locals in numerous large cities), will all be frantically trying to cram into the gaps -- whether by adjusting flights or long-distance driving plans 1-3 days out, or speeding around on every paved road the morning of April 8. That spells major traffic problems at minimum, and potentially even worse logistical problems (gas shortages, getting stuck for more than just an hour or two after it's over, highway patrol or local police intervening to block entry to overcrowded areas, etc.).

All I can say is that I'm very glad I caught the 2017 eclipse. As much as I want to see this one, I'm not willing to drive to NY or New England for it, if it turns out that's the only good option. I remember driving back from 2017 and talking about how climo was not friendly for the 2024 eclipse date, so it's not like the prospect of widespread clouds is surprising. But if it turns out that the Northeast U.S. (whose climo is the least friendly) is the only region to pull this off, as early ensemble trends hint at, that's an extra kick in the junk.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

All I can say is that I'm very glad I caught the 2017 eclipse. As much as I want to see this one, I'm not willing to drive to NY or New England for it, if it turns out that's the only good option.

100% this as far as I'm concerned. I caught the 2017 eclipse as well and have the luxury to be able to get a little creative with this one. But, there's no way I'm traveling to the northeast to catch it so if it doesn't happen in NE Texas or Arkansas it's a no for me (dawg).

 

[Cody Taylor]

If that forecast verifies, i will still be driving from Kansas to the New York or Ohio area. I also got to witness the 2017 one and to me, it is worth the drive. However, i am concerned with a lot of what was brought up in the above comments. Given the population on the east coast and New England area, as well as the amount of people traveling to a relatively small area, could cause major problems. I plan on leaving on Friday and being in position well before the event. I also will be carrying additional fuel and will have the tank topped off every chance i get before the event. I have not been to that area of the northeast but i can only imagine the road network isnt as detour friendly as the roads in Texas which could result in a traffic nightmare in the New York area.

 

[JamesCaruso]

if it turns out that the Northeast U.S. (whose climo is the least friendly) is the only region to pull this off, as early ensemble trends hint at, that's an extra kick in the junk.

Think how I feel, I live in the northeast and booked flights for a family of five to go to TX and reserved two hotel rooms in each of three different spots from Austin to Arkansas

 

[Ryan Walsh]

Think how I feel, I live in the northeast and booked flights for a family of five to go to TX and reserved two hotel rooms in each of three different spots from Austin to Arkansas

Hopefully you can cancel one or more of those hotel bookings and get a refund (this is often the case for me). And hopefully you purchased flight insurance (this is never the case for me)! If you're no longer going that is. Still a ways to go though

 

[Jeff Duda]

Like the rest of you, I'm feeling an impulse to get despondent or down about the persistent high cloud cover forecasts from many of the deterministic (and ensemble) G(E)FS cycles coming through. However, here is an example of why I'm not sold on a cloud cover bust.

Here is the comparison between the Canadian and GFS models for the upper-air pattern that day:


Fairly similar at this range (at least with showing a substantial mid-level jet and trough over the SW and a broad ridge axis over the Appalachians/Dixie Alley region. They even also both have the northward departing previous shortwave over the northern Plains.

And now for the parameterized cloud cover forecast comparison:


That is almost night-and-day different between them. The model physics differ, and that is probably the difference between these. Not sure how that will translate to verification, however. My inclination is that the GFS is overdone whereas the GDPS is underdone, so that the truth lies in between.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I've been seeing some talk about the Euro and Canadian (RDPS/GDPS) being the better cloud cover models and the GFS far over-doing cloud cover plots. That seems to be the case from what I can tell. I have very little experience with forecasting cloud cover, so I'm relying on others to get up to speed on that.

That being said, the latest plots from those models for 1pm CDT on the 8th are just troll-level comical.