TC development near Pohnpei

[Jose Garcia]

Hi to all...

There is a very interesting disturbance developing just west of Pohnpei (~6N,158E) which continues to show signs of organization. The latest pressure out of that island is of 1003mb and dropping. The systems that develop in this area and time of the year can become very strong typhoons so it will be closely watched...

 

[Jim Leonard]

For several days now the ecmwf, gfs and nogaps have been showing a tropical cyclone developing in the Caroline Islands around 7N and 157E. The models have shown a storm probably of typhoon strength tracking NW direction of the Marianna Islands during the next several days.

 

[Joshua T. Clark]

Tropical Depression 01W (No Name)

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 300552Z MAR 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300600) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 12 FEET.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 311200Z MAR TO 021200Z APR 2006.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

B. TD 01W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. AN EXAMINATION OF MID LEVEL WINDS AT CHUUK AND POHNPEI SUPPORT THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR TC 01W. THIS TRACK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72. JUST AFTER TAU 72, AN MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER MONGOLIA WILL DEEPEN OVER JAPAN AND BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE STEERING RIDGE.THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. OF THE LIMITED DYNAMIC AIDS, EGRR, NGPS AND JGSM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE AIDS.

C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE AXIS. A DEEPENING LOW FAR EAST OF TD 01W APPEARS TO BE AIDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW BY ACTING AS A MASS SINK. THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY OFFSETTING THE MODERATE SHEAR VALUES TO AID DEEPENING OF THE CIRCULATION. TC 01W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANCE FOR GREATEST INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 72 AS THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER JAPAN LEADS TO INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

 

[Simone Lussardi]

Looks from the enhanced satellite imagery of GUAM that the storm intensification, after a brief relaxing period this morning, picked up again. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a CAT 3 very close to either Guam or Saipan in the following few days. Looks now that is trying to form an eye and is not that faraway...

Simone

 

[Joshua T. Clark]

TS 01W UPDATE

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,

CURRENT FORECAST GRAPHIC


TS 01W (KONG-REY) IS LOCATED APPROX 430 NM ESE OF GUAM, AND IS TRACKING WNW AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS WELL AS ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

STEERING CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT APPROX TAU 48 A MID-LAT TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF CHINA WILL APPROACH CAUSING A BREAKDOWN IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CAUSING A SLOWDOWN IN SPEED AND A POLEWARD TURN. CURRENT DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH TAU 60 BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE PAST TAU 72 AS VARIOUS RECURVATURE SCENARIOS ARE PREDICTED.

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGAERY SHOWS THE O1W IS BEING CUT OFF FROM ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT BECAUSE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM THAT IS ENHANCING THE RADIAL OUTFLOW OF THE STORM. TS O1W WILL REACH PEAK INTENSITY AS ITS APPROACHES GUAM DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RIDGE AXIS AND BOOSTED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY MID-LAT TROUGH.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 01W WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF APPROXIMATELY 60KTS AS IT CRESTS THE RIDGE AXIS AN CURVES POLEWARD. NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS ARE UNREALISTICLY EMBEDDING TS 01W IN THE MID-LAT FLOW BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.

CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

 

[Jose Garcia]

This storm is now estimated at 60kts and typhoon warnings are in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. This storm seems to be heading in the direction of Saipan at this time.It has quite a large structure (common in the Wpac) with impressive outflow, at this time the inner structural changes will influence in the future intensity.
The CDO is organizing as time goes by and it is possible that a rapid-deepening phase could happen as it approaches the Northern Marianas, this again depending on the inner-core changes. This is one of the areas of the World which has gotten most hits, a chaser's paradise.

 

[Charles Kuster]

Maximum sustained winds are now up to 70kts as of 03Z. It does look like the storm has intensified somewhat as it passed to the north of Saipan. It now has a visible eye on the latest infrared satellite image. I was rather surprised to hear about this storm because two of my friends went to Guam for spring break and a tropical cyclone passed just to their north! I wish I had enough luck to just go to Guam for spring break and have a typhoon nearby. They probably are not quite as happy as I would have been though.

 

[Charles Kuster]

The winds have increased to 90kts as of the 12Z advisory. Outflow still seems to be quite healthy especially in the northern quadrants and the eye is still pretty well defined on the 1130Z infrared satellite image. The storm should begin to weaken as it curves back out into the Pacific.