State of the Chase Season 2025

[JamesCaruso]

I was late to the Arnett storm and got caught in a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam trying to get through an intersection, I think around or north of Vici, I can’t recall exactly. This was after missing the tornados and just trying to stay with the storm, which was looking pretty sickly by then. If the storm was looking better, it would have been terribly nerve-wracking to be as delayed as we were in proceeding ahead. And if we had a meso bearing down on us, it would have been downright dangerous or even deadly.

I’ve heard it said that being early to a storm helps avoid getting caught in a caravan, but I reject that premise. You might get there early initially, but eventually other chasers will show up. Are you going to be the first person to move every time the storm draws closer? The only way that works is if you are the furthest away from it at all times. Otherwise it’s unavoidable that you’re going to end up in a caravan. It’s not like everyone moves at the exact same time; people individually decide when they need/want to move, partially dependent upon their comfort level with proximity to the meso, and people leapfrog each other to different vantage points as the storm moves. This happened last year on the Silverton storm; we were among the first on it, following along on a road that paralleled it pretty well, but as chasers were drawn to it like moths to a flame it was impossible to always be first in line among the hordes.

 

[John Farley]

James, I like you and some others on here was too late on the Arnett storm for the tornado, so I am not sure about this, but I think the traffic may have been more reasonable at the time of the tornado, then grew as more and more of us came down from the north. It was definitely crazy west of Vici, after which I went on back north-south roads starting a couple miles east of Vici. Took a while to catch up to the storm, mostly because it had a greater northerly component to its motion than I initially thought, but it totally got me away from the traffic until I got back on the main road a little south of Freedom, where there was lots of traffic. Sometimes, if mud is not a problem, using back roads parallel to the ones the crowds are on can really get you away from the crowds. That said, with SPC risk areas the next couple days which, though larger now, are still largely centered on OKC, I think it will be crazy on any decent storm within 50 miles or so of there. After Hinton last year, I am more strict about my "don't chase within 50 miles of OKC rule, and that rule will be double-good on a holiday weekend.

Edit: regarding being early, I think it helps you get a good initial spot before the crowds arrive. But arrive they will, especially if it is peak chase season and/or you are near a big city like OKC or DEN (I have encountered big crowds there, too.) So the advantage you get may not last long, especially in situations like those.

 

[JamesCaruso]

All set for trip two. Flying to DFW with my son on Memorial Day. It was a tough choice between DFW and DEN. With the crappy pattern next week, I figure the only chance for any action at all on certain days is in southwest TX / southeast NM, or southeast / east central CO. I think the southern region has more potential. Nothing great, but the lesser of two evils. I looked out through Friday. Better moisture and 500mb flow most days, especially on the Euro. GFS depicts a compact mid-level low dropping southeast into CO on Friday, but there’s time to get up there by then if necessary. Also factoring into the decision were cheaper and more convenient flight options to DFW as compared to DEN - almost a 50% difference in fact.

As for this weekend - Kind of bummed about missing CO yesterday, but that would have been a rush (and another day off from work) to fly out there and chase on the same day. I don’t think it ever looked good enough, far enough in advance, to have anticipated that. My son prefers to be home for a graduation party with friends anyway, which is also why we are not going out for today. I don’t want to be a fanatic about getting out there and make him miss these milestone post-college-graduation celebrations. After my recent frustrating and disappointing trip, I’m not in as much of a hurry to get out there again anyway. We’ll enjoy a family BBQ on Sunday, and off we go on Monday. Of course I would chase today/tomorrow if I were out there, but I think capping could be a problem today, and capping and/or lack of low-level shear tomorrow.

If it were just me, I probably wouldn’t bother going out there next week at all. But I know my son is looking forward to it, and for all I know he may not even be able to come next year when he is working full-time. If we do have to drive from TX to CO at some point, that in itself should be enjoyable. I’m a little less paranoid about preserving PTO this time, as I used much less so far in May than I had hoped I would need, and this is the last window of opportunity I have left to chase this year. I’m still planning to work in the mornings, because I have more time off this summer, for family vacation and getting twin girls moved into two different colleges.

Not expecting much next week, and maybe not even the week after that. But we all know things can change. We’ve already seen that this season. I’m still hoping for some fulfillment and redemption this year.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Models are starting to agree on a nice wave ejecting over the central/northern Plains sometime next week. It looks like moisture/capping will be concerns, and one or more of these days may be in the Dakotas - but something to watch for sure.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Models are starting to agree on a nice wave ejecting over the central/northern Plains sometime next week. It looks like moisture/capping will be concerns, and one or more of these days may be in the Dakotas - but something to watch for sure.

Difference between the 00Z and 06Z GFS in trough timing and geometry is pretty stark, about the only thing than can be said with some degree of confidence is that there should be some sort of trough there mid-next week. The 00Z solution would be a beautiful setup for South Dakota on Wednesday 6/4 if not for those stupid 700mb temps.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Not surprisingly, models have all collapsed on the big western trough for next week. The good news is the eastern troughing is shown being pushed out with general westerly/southwesterly flow across the Plains through next weekend. Individual shortwaves are shown in the flow pretty much nonstop through the period, leading to low predictability in where individual chase days will set up. Everything looks to be confined to along/south of I-70 and maybe farther south, as there is no huge system to get the moisture surging into the central/northern Plains. It does look active, but no big/classic days are apparent. Clearly models are struggling with this pattern beyond 5-7 days (with a possible Gulf TC thrown in for good measure), so I wouldn't be surprised to see something unexpected emerge by the middle of the week. The basics are there (flow and moisture) so it's definitely not going to be a dead early June by any stretch - just no easy chase day forecasts.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Returned home on Wednesday. Three tornadoes, but mostly boring wedges and distant assortments. Avoided the conga lines by picking alternate targets. Season was a 4 on a scale of ten for me. The collective efforts of many chasers and the general public made it seem like a banner year. Everyone was going nuts about June, but the models have finally come to their senses. I'm guessing eastern Colorado will be a good target for the rest of June if you had to pick an anchor point. On to the monsoon, tropical and fire seasons.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I was late to the Arnett storm and got caught in a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam trying to get through an intersection, I think around or north of Vici, I can’t recall exactly. This was after missing the tornados and just trying to stay with the storm, which was looking pretty sickly by then. If the storm was looking better, it would have been terribly nerve-wracking to be as delayed as we were in proceeding ahead. And if we had a meso bearing down on us, it would have been downright dangerous or even deadly.

I’ve heard it said that being early to a storm helps avoid getting caught in a caravan, but I reject that premise. You might get there early initially, but eventually other chasers will show up. Are you going to be the first person to move every time the storm draws closer? The only way that works is if you are the furthest away from it at all times. Otherwise it’s unavoidable that you’re going to end up in a caravan. It’s not like everyone moves at the exact same time; people individually decide when they need/want to move, partially dependent upon their comfort level with proximity to the meso, and people leapfrog each other to different vantage points as the storm moves. This happened last year on the Silverton storm; we were among the first on it, following along on a road that paralleled it pretty well, but as chasers were drawn to it like moths to a flame it was impossible to always be first in line among the hordes.

So glad this nightmare has occurred late in my chasing life. I might have another 10-15 years of Plains chasing left, but I was very fortunate to have chased when crowds were of little concern. Likely a topic for another thread, but it does factor into the "state of the season," because it does effect the outcome of a chase season.

 

[Tony Laubach]

So glad this nightmare has occurred late in my chasing life. I might have another 10-15 years of Plains chasing left, but I was very fortunate to have chased when crowds were of little concern. Likely a topic for another thread, but it does factor into the "state of the season," because it does effect the outcome of a chase season.

It was a HUGE reason I chose Kansas on May 18... in fact, I had told my superiors I was not even considering Oklahoma two days out cause I refuse to chase a higher-end setup in Oklahoma on the weekend (and PTSD from El Reno 2013)....

Kansas, I guess, could be considered a secondary target for May 18, but I had good faith the day would pan out. When we got to Great Bend, it was cool and dreary like it was everywhere else that far east, so we just drove west 'toward the tornadoes' (Bennett, CO had happened by this point) til we got to sunshine and boom.

But yeah, I was VERY aware of what Oklahoma would be like and even if Kansas had not panned out like it did, I know (from experience) I would have had no regrets missing Arnett (minus the initial stings, but as soon as the traffic stories came out, it would've eased that pain). I was VERY grateful there were multiple targets, and while it may have been a split among the "non-local chasers", I just immediately double my expected crowds in Oklahoma with the local crews.

 

[Jason N]

So, after about 5 days of watching trends, which were a kicking back and forth a bit with pacific pattern changes I think, it seems like the period between June 10-20 will have some more zonal flow aloft as opposed to high meridional with big cut off's or dominant ridging in the Atlantic, which bodes well for the potential for some potential chase days across the central to high plains, which opens the for some possible classic DL regions across the pan handle as well as western areas of Wrn KS/Ern CO/ Wrn NE and perhaps further north to.. the moisture factors will be resolved in time.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

There is great uncertainty for June. There will be some chances on June 2-4, but after that, who knows? Can't leave until the 5th. Check out the GFS spaghetti plot from 12Z. Lots of people are hyping up June as the end of the world. There will be plenty of CAPE so that the Supercell Composite will look great, but will there be any flow? Since we always have the fallback of visiting National Parks, whatever happens, we will be out there somewhere.