State of the Chase Season 2025

[JamesCaruso]

I was late to the Arnett storm and got caught in a bumper-to-bumper traffic jam trying to get through an intersection, I think around or north of Vici, I can’t recall exactly. This was after missing the tornados and just trying to stay with the storm, which was looking pretty sickly by then. If the storm was looking better, it would have been terribly nerve-wracking to be as delayed as we were in proceeding ahead. And if we had a meso bearing down on us, it would have been downright dangerous or even deadly.

I’ve heard it said that being early to a storm helps avoid getting caught in a caravan, but I reject that premise. You might get there early initially, but eventually other chasers will show up. Are you going to be the first person to move every time the storm draws closer? The only way that works is if you are the furthest away from it at all times. Otherwise it’s unavoidable that you’re going to end up in a caravan. It’s not like everyone moves at the exact same time; people individually decide when they need/want to move, partially dependent upon their comfort level with proximity to the meso, and people leapfrog each other to different vantage points as the storm moves. This happened last year on the Silverton storm; we were among the first on it, following along on a road that paralleled it pretty well, but as chasers were drawn to it like moths to a flame it was impossible to always be first in line among the hordes.

 

[John Farley]

James, I like you and some others on here was too late on the Arnett storm for the tornado, so I am not sure about this, but I think the traffic may have been more reasonable at the time of the tornado, then grew as more and more of us came down from the north. It was definitely crazy west of Vici, after which I went on back north-south roads starting a couple miles east of Vici. Took a while to catch up to the storm, mostly because it had a greater northerly component to its motion than I initially thought, but it totally got me away from the traffic until I got back on the main road a little south of Freedom, where there was lots of traffic. Sometimes, if mud is not a problem, using back roads parallel to the ones the crowds are on can really get you away from the crowds. That said, with SPC risk areas the next couple days which, though larger now, are still largely centered on OKC, I think it will be crazy on any decent storm within 50 miles or so of there. After Hinton last year, I am more strict about my "don't chase within 50 miles of OKC rule, and that rule will be double-good on a holiday weekend.

Edit: regarding being early, I think it helps you get a good initial spot before the crowds arrive. But arrive they will, especially if it is peak chase season and/or you are near a big city like OKC or DEN (I have encountered big crowds there, too.) So the advantage you get may not last long, especially in situations like those.

 

[JamesCaruso]

All set for trip two. Flying to DFW with my son on Memorial Day. It was a tough choice between DFW and DEN. With the crappy pattern next week, I figure the only chance for any action at all on certain days is in southwest TX / southeast NM, or southeast / east central CO. I think the southern region has more potential. Nothing great, but the lesser of two evils. I looked out through Friday. Better moisture and 500mb flow most days, especially on the Euro. GFS depicts a compact mid-level low dropping southeast into CO on Friday, but there’s time to get up there by then if necessary. Also factoring into the decision were cheaper and more convenient flight options to DFW as compared to DEN - almost a 50% difference in fact.

As for this weekend - Kind of bummed about missing CO yesterday, but that would have been a rush (and another day off from work) to fly out there and chase on the same day. I don’t think it ever looked good enough, far enough in advance, to have anticipated that. My son prefers to be home for a graduation party with friends anyway, which is also why we are not going out for today. I don’t want to be a fanatic about getting out there and make him miss these milestone post-college-graduation celebrations. After my recent frustrating and disappointing trip, I’m not in as much of a hurry to get out there again anyway. We’ll enjoy a family BBQ on Sunday, and off we go on Monday. Of course I would chase today/tomorrow if I were out there, but I think capping could be a problem today, and capping and/or lack of low-level shear tomorrow.

If it were just me, I probably wouldn’t bother going out there next week at all. But I know my son is looking forward to it, and for all I know he may not even be able to come next year when he is working full-time. If we do have to drive from TX to CO at some point, that in itself should be enjoyable. I’m a little less paranoid about preserving PTO this time, as I used much less so far in May than I had hoped I would need, and this is the last window of opportunity I have left to chase this year. I’m still planning to work in the mornings, because I have more time off this summer, for family vacation and getting twin girls moved into two different colleges.

Not expecting much next week, and maybe not even the week after that. But we all know things can change. We’ve already seen that this season. I’m still hoping for some fulfillment and redemption this year.