State of the Chase Season 2025

[Greg McLaughlin]

Pack your bags boys and girls, cause the plains are coming alive. Today just got it done in rather nice fashion in Nebraska. You can throw out the drought concerns at this point. Dews have overperformed today, not even mixing out in Oklahoma. I like how things look towards the end of the month.

 

[JamesCaruso]

The event on the 17th provides a couple of lessons. Things I already know at this stage of my chasing career of course, but I seem to very easily forget and have to remind myself of over and over.

1. Stay positive about the season. While this event did appear in SPC’s Day 4-8, I would say it was unanticipated in the sense that many chasers here were ready to write off the rest of April not too long ago

2. A great chase day does not require an outbreak. You can only chase one supercell at a time anyway. (Not to mention that the parameters on most outbreak days sow the seeds of the event’s own downside, which often tends to be greater than its upside)

As for my personal situation, I find myself in the usual position of regretting not being out there for the 17th (the particularly acute version of FOMO known only to chasers). Not that it was high-end or anything, but it was a late May / early June type of event with isolated, discrete storms moving at a manageable speed. A chase vacationer has to come to grips with knowing they are always going to miss events before and after a chase vacation. I had hoped to lessen that with the ability to work remotely. But still, it’s only mid-April, and the bar is higher when deciding whether to spend time and money flying out to the Plains for shorter trips outside of the “core” peak-season trip. (In other words, violating my own lesson #2 above, you almost “need” a synoptically evident outbreak to justify a trip, or a pattern that makes it likely there will be many consecutive days of mesoscale events).

I could not have gotten out there this particular week anyway. Which is the bigger problem; thinking I can get out there when needed is often a fantasy. It’s impractical to keep one’s personal and professional calendar free for two months, “just in case” chasing opportunities arise - especially considering it is more likely than not that nothing chase-worthy will be happening. So next Sunday the 27th, for example, looking good on the models last time I checked, now out for me because I agreed weeks ago to attend a neighbor’s surprise birthday party. Why did I do that, knowing it’s storm season? Because in the back of my mind at the time, I was thinking “what are the odds I would “need” to be on the Plains that particular day?” Two days after that, I am attending an academic awards ceremony for my son, which would be priority one no matter what. Suppose I wasn’t going to the birthday party - is next weekend really going to be good enough to justify going out and back for one or two days and returning for my son’s award ceremony?

Just sharing some of the constant ambivalence and difficult decisions that are part of approaching a season for the non-local chaser. I am intrigued by these issues, biases and decision-making processes almost as much as the weather itself!

 

[Matthew Crowther]

In hindsight, it is obvious that yesterday overperformed tornado-wise. I was expecting good supercells, but not the mini-outbreak that occurred.
I had suspected all along that Saturday might be a good day, but as Jim stated, it didn't seem worth the travel and expense. I may regret that decision also. This hobby is a lot harder if you are not either a Plains resident or one of the cadre of chasers who seem to have the unlimited time and money to be able to chase continually for months on end.

As for the upcoming pattern, models and ensembles still suggest that next week may still be okay, and since I blew the forecast for this week and am getting antsy, I'll likely go out and see what happens, regardless.

 

[Dan Robinson]

I don't have any regrets about missing yesterday. The next 10 setups like it aren't going to produce like that. Scoring that kind of setup requires a paradigm shift into a "chase everything" grind that 1, I can't afford in both time and money and 2, I just don't want, period. Years ago, I came to peace with the fact that that stance would make me miss the Campos, Simlas and days like today. Furthermore, had I chased I'm pretty sure I would have been on the southern storm and therefore would have missed the better daytime tornadoes. The after-dark stuff in Iowa, despite its significance, isn't the kind of thing I really care much about seeing anyway - nothing I'm going to drive 8 hours for and burn 1 or 2 PTO days that I'm going to need later in the season.

Better things are likely coming.

 

[William Monfredo]

...& the Award for Best Funny & True Line in a Post to a Thread goes to....

I like the positive attitude for the Plains. We're not forecasting snow in the South. We're forecasting severe weather in Tornado Alley.

 

[Sean Ramsey]

I was almost out the door headed to Omaha yesterday but my daughter had a track meet here in town and I ultimately decided to attend it instead. Like I told my wife, there are always more storms but there are limited opportunities to watch your kid compete.

So I didn't see anything that happened yesterday up north. That's how I handle it these days. If I'm not there it didn't happen as far as I'm concerned. I used to get burnt up missing Simla, Pilger, etc.

Not these days.

Tonight I'm sitting under a gray sky in SW OK waiting for storms but feels like it might hold off til after dark so it may be a bust for me. Oh well, as I said they always make more and I'll catch the next ones.

 

[Warren Faidley]

I don't have any regrets about missing yesterday. The next 10 setups like it aren't going to produce like that. Scoring that kind of setup requires a paradigm shift into a "chase everything" grind that 1, I can't afford in both time and money and 2, I just don't want, period. Years ago, I came to peace with the fact that that stance would make me miss the Campos, Simlas and days like today. Furthermore, had I chased I'm pretty sure I would have been on the southern storm and therefore would have missed the better daytime tornadoes. The after-dark stuff in Iowa, despite its significance, isn't the kind of thing I really care much about seeing anyway - nothing I'm going to drive 8 hours for and burn 1 or 2 PTO days that I'm going to need later in the season.

Better things are likely coming.

Yes. You can drive yourself crazy second guessing set-ups. Generally, when everything is considered, we made the correct decision despite the outcome.

Some possible SP region possibilities coming, including maybe next Thursday. The GFS says "boring" in the CP's for the last week in April if you believe the 500mb forecast. 15-20 kts. is pitiful.

 

[JamesCaruso]

I don't have any regrets about missing yesterday. The next 10 setups like it aren't going to produce like that. Scoring that kind of setup requires a paradigm shift into a "chase everything" grind that 1, I can't afford in both time and money and 2, I just don't want, period.

I think your “next 10 setups” is the right way to think about it. A few years ago, I declined to drive 6 hours to a potential low-probability target. It ended up producing, and I instantly regretted it. My usual chase partner was not with me that year, but I was talking to him about it on the phone, lamenting that in hindsight it clearly would have been worth the drive to see it. What he said to me always stuck with me, and you are getting at the same sentiment here Dan: “It’s easy in hindsight to say it would have been worth a 6 hour drive. But there was only a 10% chance that target would verify. Would you be willing to make that drive *10 times* to have seen it??”

Even on a chase vacation, I’m not a “chase everything” guy. Never have been, even when I was younger. My chase partner and I always felt it’s supposed to be a fun vacation too, and not become too much like work with a sense of obligation.

If I am actually able to spend extra time working remotely on the Plains this season, I’ll still have to be selective and preserve PTO time.

 

[Jeff House]

I would not have seen April 17 in any universe, so I don't regret parking my posterior at home. Since we (chase partner) have to travel we wait for multiple days. What about Saturday and Sunday? LOL on Easter weekend!

Next week will probably do better than global models suggest. Looks sloppy because the subtropical jet will get involved. While that can get messy, just-right mid-level temps can create good set-ups. Positions of boundaries will play a huge role determining set-up quality.

Following week which goes into early May.. Well, we can stop right there. May! Good things happen with southwest flow aloft. Early May mesoscale details can still make or break, but one has to like what's on every 11-15 day ensemble.

I'm not at a point to start putting together a trip, which can thankfully be on a few days notice, but we're watching more closely now.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Outflow boundaries are going to have a bigger than expected impact on the SVR weather potential for at least the next week +. Models have backed off displacing RH out west, so it's likely there will be several classic DL events in the offering. If the forecast keeps supporting western TX and E. NM initiation for multiple days, I might have to try and deploy sooner than later. No RH crashing fronts are forecast to ruin the show as often happens this time of year.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Hard to ignore April 28/29 (time frame) if the models verify. Could be a higher-ended, two day event. Considering this as "trending guidance" as opposed to an actual forecast this far out.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Hard to ignore April 28/29 (time frame) if the models verify. Could be a higher-ended, two day event. Considering this as "trending guidance" as opposed to an actual forecast this far out.

View attachment 27126

Yup. Signal for late next weekend and the few days beyond has been there for a while now on the CFS/GFS and has gotten stronger with time. When I go to work tomorrow I'll probably put in PTO for the following Monday-Wednesday. I can't take off May 1-6 since other colleagues on my shift already have PTO those days (I'm normally off weekends, but I'm covering for one of them on the 3rd). Looks like it just may work out for me, although I'll probably miss additional opportunities those days, there should be more going deeper into May.

Although the specifics bounce around a lot from run to run (naturally) and there will inevitably be down periods, I've seen the CFS look a lot worse going into May some years in the not-too-distant past.

 

[John Farley]

Gosh I hope so! I'm sitting out here in CO, currently unable to travel much due to work, and I'm itching to finally get my 2025 chase season underway. I know CO is normally a later-in-the-season type of place, but I got spoiled by my years living in OK and I'm getting impatient.

It is kind of a story of two seasons in Colorado. In southeast Colorado (Palmer Divide and south) it can often be good fairly early in the season. In northeast Colorado (Palmer Divide and north), the action usually comes later, often peaking in July or later. Oftentimes that is better in terms of tornadoes, but you can get them in both the early season and the late season. Living in southwest Colorado as I do, it is a long haul to the northeast part of the state, and often in that late season the best days are not synoptically evident very far ahead. So most of my chasing in Colorado is in the early season. IIRC you are in Colorado Springs, which is actually a pretty good place to get to either the early or late season setups.

 

[Paul Bird]

Going to put a week in for the 26th to the 3rd- models have been consistent in at least several days during that time span and I’m feeling pretty optimistic about it. I’ll still have the final two weeks of May should things go sideways. Can’t pass on multiple days in a row of SW flow this time of year though so I’ll be hitting the road Friday

 

[Mikayla Norris]

It is kind of a story of two seasons in Colorado. In southeast Colorado (Palmer Divide and south) it can often be good fairly early in the season. In northeast Colorado (Palmer Divide and north), the action usually comes later, often peaking in July or later. Oftentimes that is better in terms of tornadoes, but you can get them in both the early season and the late season. Living in southwest Colorado as I do, it is a long haul to the northeast part of the state, and often in that late season the best days are not synoptically evident very far ahead. So most of my chasing in Colorado is in the early season. IIRC you are in Colorado Springs, which is actually a pretty good place to get to either the early or late season setups.

Thanks for the info on the seasons! That definitely helps to clarify things a bit! And yes, I'm in Colorado Springs. Due to my job in the Air Force, it isn't easy for me to take off work on short notice, though my current schedule means I'm off work between 1400 and 1500 local time most days. The problem I anticipate running into is similar to an issue I faced when I lived in SW OK as well. Living west of the main initiation zone for the day means that I am already behind on the chase as soon as I leave the house. Living in Altus, I missed several tornado opportunities because I wasn't always able to leave work early enough to get east of the storms before they fired and got going. For example, of the 5 tornadoes I saw last season, all of them were west of Altus. 3 in the TX panhandle, 1 in north TX just south of Vernon, and 1 only a few miles west of Altus. In all of those cases, I was able to approach the storms from the east and didn't have to play catch up the entire time. I'm really hoping I can find ways to mitigate that issue while I'm living here. Something tells me there won't be very many tornadic supercells moving east off of Pikes Peaks