State of the Chase Season 2025

[Dan Robinson]

The GFS and Euro are wanting to keep things capped on Sunday and Monday. The best moisture isn't pushing west up against the dryline. Midlevel flow is offshore (northerly) on much of the Gulf coast through the period. These concerns have me at less enthusiastic about going on the first Plains trip of the year.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The GFS and Euro are wanting to keep things capped on Sunday and Monday. The best moisture isn't pushing west up against the dryline. Midlevel flow is offshore (northerly) on much of the Gulf coast through the period. These concerns have me at less enthusiastic about going on the first Plains trip of the year.

Hey Dan, need I remind you that you were pessimistic on the morning of 4/26 last year, as well?

Like that day, IMO this coming Sunday/Monday pass the synoptic-scale "sniff test" as in if you aren't going to chase that this time of year, what are you going to chase? Sure there are potential failure modes, but when are there not?

I get being selective about which days to chase. I have to do it myself since I'm not one of those people who has the luxury of chasing anything, anywhere. After sitting out all the big days from mid-March through earlier this month, I didn't miss any tornadoes I'm too sad about (except maybe Lake City) but at this point I'm just itching to get out there under a good storm.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Guilty as charged! It depends - there is still a lot of time for things to improve. I just don't like those northerly midlevels over the Gulf, it seems like that always messes up moisture return with noticeable implications farther north. Once we're in CAM range and get some better signals for initiation, it won't take much coaxing to change my mind

 

[JamesCaruso]

I try to avoid looking at the long-term, but I wouldn’t mind if some of this speculation about May comes to fruition. I can chase the first week of May, but I only have a week including travel, which from the east coast costs a half day to a full day each way. It’s a high bar to make that trip, so I’d rather it be an easy decision with a clear cut no-go.

Hopefully I don’t miss much in the second week of May either. Starting May 13, I have most of the rest of May and first week of June available, except for a return home for my son’s graduation, which will eliminate three days, including travel, from May 21-23. What a cruel irony it would be if I end up missing something great during those particular three days!

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Guilty as charged! It depends - there is still a lot of time for things to improve. I just don't like those northerly midlevels over the Gulf, it seems like that always messes up moisture return with noticeable implications farther north. Once we're in CAM range and get some better signals for initiation, it won't take much coaxing to change my mind

Just based off the GFS forecast soundings within the areas of greatest EHI, I am not seeing significant moisture issues. Depth is decent and T/Td spreads, while a tad high in some spots, don't look prohibitive. In fact, a lot of them are close to or in that sweet spot (IMO) of around 10 degrees, where you can get tornadoes without grungy low bases.

 

[G Diaz]

I saw some good lightning near the DFW areas at around the morning. Moved up north and spotted tennis ball hail in Frisco.

 

[G Diaz]

I saw some good lightning near the DFW areas at around the morning. Moved up north and spotted tennis ball hail in Frisco.

Forgot to mention that the hail varied in size, from penny to tennis and sometimes ping pong.

 

[John Farley]

Guilty as charged! It depends - there is still a lot of time for things to improve. I just don't like those northerly midlevels over the Gulf, it seems like that always messes up moisture return with noticeable implications farther north. Once we're in CAM range and get some better signals for initiation, it won't take much coaxing to change my mind

At least next week's action will be relatively closer to you in the Midwest and moving toward you. I am getting less bullish on doing any chasing next week from my location the Southwest, where storms will be farther away and moving away from me. I might have considered Sunday but my schedule is a hot mess from today through then, so the earliest I could possibly head out would be Monday, and by then it looks too far east for my tastes. I also hate chasing near OKC, which might be about the closest for me next week as things look. I am leaning toward saving a trip for later when the setup is better and closer.

 

[Brett Roberts]

There's nothing easy about go/no go decisions right now for anyone considering traveling for a big multi-day trip. We have four consecutive days (4/23 - 4/26) of marginal and/or localized potential, then perhaps two days (4/27 - 4/28) that will be more boom or bust. That description sounds like an obvious "go" in mid-late May, but in late April with most of the mesoscale potential focused pretty far west where drought is still prevalent, it's a bit maddening. Chances are good that legit structure and at least one or two respectable tors will fall out of this initial period, but you'll likely have to play every day and choose targets wisely in order to capitalize.

The speed and tilt of the main trough ejection for Sun-Mon still seems to be waffling right around the line of boom vs. bust. Fresh 12z guidance is more optimistic than the past few runs on isolated to widely scattered dryline storms Sunday afternoon, particularly the ECMWF suite... but the GFS and UKMET are still holdouts. It seems somewhat likely to me that Sunday is our one shot at an "obvious" higher-end day between now and the second week of May, but it could easily be a blue sky bust with minor trends in the wrong direction. Monday now looks almost certainly sloppy to some degree, even if the dryline lights up... though tornadoes would of course still be on the table.

I do agree with Dan's concern of NW flow over the GoM as all this is going down. That's another factor I wouldn't look at much a month from now, but it's hard to ignore in April. I'm keeping an open mind for Sun-Mon, but kind of expecting to be disappointed with wasted potential leading directly into an extended poor pattern.

 

[G Diaz]

There's nothing easy about go/no go decisions right now for anyone considering traveling for a big multi-day trip. We have four consecutive days (4/23 - 4/26) of marginal and/or localized potential, then perhaps two days (4/27 - 4/28) that will be more boom or bust. That description sounds like an obvious "go" in mid-late May, but in late April with most of the mesoscale potential focused pretty far west where drought is still prevalent, it's a bit maddening. Chances are good that legit structure and at least one or two respectable tors will fall out of this initial period, but you'll likely have to play every day and choose targets wisely in order to capitalize.

The speed and tilt of the main trough ejection for Sun-Mon still seems to be waffling right around the line of boom vs. bust. Fresh 12z guidance is more optimistic than the past few runs on isolated to widely scattered dryline storms Sunday afternoon, particularly the ECMWF suite... but the GFS and UKMET are still holdouts. It seems somewhat likely to me that Sunday is our one shot at an "obvious" higher-end day between now and the second week of May, but it could easily be a blue sky bust with minor trends in the wrong direction. Monday now looks almost certainly sloppy to some degree, even if the dryline lights up... though tornadoes would of course still be on the table.

I do agree with Dan's concern of NW flow over the GoM as all this is going down. That's another factor I wouldn't look at much a month from now, but it's hard to ignore in April. I'm keeping an open mind for Sun-Mon, but kind of expecting to be disappointed with wasted potential leading directly into an extended poor pattern.

I think i might stay at Texas for now. Good lightning there.

 

[Warren Faidley]

If anyone is "on the fence" about chasing the next few days, I'd chase.

The models are really starting to agree on a dead period after the 29th. (+/-) for the Plains, if you are seeking SW flow. NCEP ensemble "spaghetti" plots are in general good agreement through May 3rd before they diverge. The mean ensembles look dead until after the 8th.

 

[G Diaz]

If anyone is "on the fence" about chasing the next few days, I'd chase.

The models are really starting to agree on a dead period after the 29th. (+/-) for the Plains, if you are seeking SW flow. NCEP ensemble "spaghetti" plots are in general good agreement through May 3rd before they diverge. The mean ensembles look dead until after the 8th.

How do you get those types of models? I’m new, I’ve searched the web everywhere’s And i can’t seem to find those models.

 

[Jeff House]

OK this week is pretty well handled by SPC, and we'll probably will get some Target Area threads. Warren is correct that a slow period is likely after this trough (previous page). A lull is not unusual following an active trough.

Season will roll on though. No Texas based ridge is forecast. Above normal 500 mb heights North with normal South allows subtropical jet activity and/or upslope and Caprock days. 11-15 day forecast is wet in Texas, which should help with the drought. Those days may or may not be severe days, but any rain is welcome - if only to set the table for later in May.

I really want to write about later in May but I have nothing. MJO will need to totally reset and restart. Weekly models just stall out where they are about Day 20 and keep it going through Day 35. Broad AN heights are forecast but no concentrated death ridge. Even slightly below normal late May activity is workable. Perhaps we'll have more clarity in several more days.

 

[William Monfredo]

Looking over year-to-date tornado reports, including inflation adjusted, 2025's the best start to the season since 2011.
Sunday in central Nebraska and Monday in the Iowa-centric area should help those numbers further. Ya think?

Btw, even though I didn't go to eastern Arkansas on April 2nd, seeing those supercells on radar erupt beneath the left-exit region of a 70-knot, mid-level jet still leaves me breathless. And I guess it goes without saying...great to see the dry-line working out in the TX Panhandle yesterday.

 

[G Diaz]

Looking over year-to-date tornado reports, including inflation adjusted, 2025's the best start to the season since 2011.
Sunday in central Nebraska and Monday in the Iowa-centric area should help those numbers further. Ya think?

Btw, even though I didn't go to eastern Arkansas on April 2nd, seeing those supercells on radar erupt beneath the left-exit region of a 70-knot, mid-level jet still leaves me breathless. And I guess it goes without saying...great to see the dry-line working out in the TX Panhandle yesterday.

I agree with you! 2025 has so far been a good year for me. I’ve gotten some good lightning shots, but i have yet to see a tornado.