State of the Chase Season 2025

[Dan Robinson]

The GFS and Euro are wanting to keep things capped on Sunday and Monday. The best moisture isn't pushing west up against the dryline. Midlevel flow is offshore (northerly) on much of the Gulf coast through the period. These concerns have me at less enthusiastic about going on the first Plains trip of the year.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

The GFS and Euro are wanting to keep things capped on Sunday and Monday. The best moisture isn't pushing west up against the dryline. Midlevel flow is offshore (northerly) on much of the Gulf coast through the period. These concerns have me at less enthusiastic about going on the first Plains trip of the year.

Hey Dan, need I remind you that you were pessimistic on the morning of 4/26 last year, as well?

Like that day, IMO this coming Sunday/Monday pass the synoptic-scale "sniff test" as in if you aren't going to chase that this time of year, what are you going to chase? Sure there are potential failure modes, but when are there not?

I get being selective about which days to chase. I have to do it myself since I'm not one of those people who has the luxury of chasing anything, anywhere. After sitting out all the big days from mid-March through earlier this month, I didn't miss any tornadoes I'm too sad about (except maybe Lake City) but at this point I'm just itching to get out there under a good storm.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Guilty as charged! It depends - there is still a lot of time for things to improve. I just don't like those northerly midlevels over the Gulf, it seems like that always messes up moisture return with noticeable implications farther north. Once we're in CAM range and get some better signals for initiation, it won't take much coaxing to change my mind

 

[JamesCaruso]

I try to avoid looking at the long-term, but I wouldn’t mind if some of this speculation about May comes to fruition. I can chase the first week of May, but I only have a week including travel, which from the east coast costs a half day to a full day each way. It’s a high bar to make that trip, so I’d rather it be an easy decision with a clear cut no-go.

Hopefully I don’t miss much in the second week of May either. Starting May 13, I have most of the rest of May and first week of June available, except for a return home for my son’s graduation, which will eliminate three days, including travel, from May 21-23. What a cruel irony it would be if I end up missing something great during those particular three days!