State of the Chase Season 2025

[William Monfredo]

It's official, NOAA's calling it, the end of this La Niña..."Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions."

 

[Paul Bird]

A bit of hope as we approach May.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Indications are currently that the Plains may get better beginning about April 21.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Indications are currently that the Plains may get better beginning about April 21.

Yeah, just came on here to say I don't hate the CFS lately. YMMV of course on whether you can get out there for the good days but it's at least not looking like a total shutdown at this point.

 

[JamesCaruso]

As I mentioned in post #69, I was hoping my remote work setup would allow me to add a couple of shorter trips to the Plains, in between personal/family obligations, before and/or after my “core” longer trip scheduled from May 24 to about June 8. As (my) luck would have it, the week of April 21 is one of the weeks I *cannot* be out on the Plains, due to a board meeting I have to attend in Boston

 

[Dan Robinson]

I'm not liking the continued presence of cold air in southern Canada shown by nearly all ensembles and operational models at the medium-far end of the long ranges. I'm no expert, but it seems from experience that persistent slugs of cold air at 850mb east of the Rockies in Canada tends to promote a long-term eastern troughing/Hudson Bay vortex pattern.

 

[twarner]

So I fed ChatGPT AAM/GWO forecast charts for analyses. Here is what is said:

Forecast Summary:

With the GWO cycling toward Phase 8, a modestly enhanced subtropical jet, and AAM positive anomalies in critical latitudes, the stage is set for a potential uptick in severe weather across the Central U.S. between April 22–May 2. The signal favors storm system ejection into the Plains, particularly if future mountain torques or MJO support aligns. While amplitude remains modest, forecasters should stay alert for short-range triggers within this favorable large-scale pattern.

 

[Paul Bird]

Continued support for at least a somewhat favorable look as we push closer to the end of the month, there are signs of at least spurts of action across the month of May- the end of April also appearing quite favorable on ensembles.

Hopefully we come out with at least an average month for May. Certainly doesn’t seem all doom and gloom.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Will be interesting to see if we can at least get some rainfall in the western sectors, even w/o SVR. Surface is impossible to forecast this far out, but some AI models are keeping the dryline too far east for me and trying to make unrealistic RH return between systems.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Yeah that chiclet chart tells you nothing about *where* supercell parameters will be; even if it verifies, it could well be too far east. I’m old-school about staying mostly in the traditional alley west of I-35 when in KS and OK. East of that is no better than being in Pennsylvania where I live. I would not fly out specifically for an event in that area. Even when already out there on a chase vacation, I’ve blown off stuff out that way. In fact I missed Joplin because I wasn’t interested in chasing in that region. Kind of regret it now of course, but nowhere near as much as I regret missing certain other famous tornados over the years…

 

[JamesCaruso]

Thursday 4/17 could be interesting in extreme SE NEB / NE KS / NW MO / SW IA. SPC has put up a Day 5 15% risk. There should be a surface low / triple point and favorable shear. Potential negatives are a narrow moisture / instability axis and possible displacement between the best hodographs and the best thermodynamic profile. Good to having something to watch though, especially since many were considering writing off the rest of April, and even most recently thinking it was dead until the week of the 21st.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Thursday 4/17 could be interesting in extreme SE NEB / NE KS / NW MO / SW IA. SPC has put up a Day 5 15% risk. There should be a surface low / triple point and favorable shear. Potential negatives are a narrow moisture / instability axis and possible displacement between the best hodographs and the best thermodynamic profile. Good to having something to watch though, especially since many were considering writing off the rest of April, and even most recently thinking it was dead until the week of the 21st.

00Z and 06Z GFS looked great, although the 0Z Euro is considerably less robust with the moisture.

Toward the end of the run, the Euro brings solid moisture into the Southern Plains underneath broad, if modest, southwest flow. Ought to at least be some chances for the locals in there which in April is about all you can ask for.

 

[Brett Roberts]

I'm noticing a distinct signal on medium-range guidance for the 4/19 - 4/27 period of expected mean western troughing to lean more toward messiness and widespread, around-the-clock precip than explosive afternoon severe setups on the Plains.

That isn't to say there can't be a solid chase day or two sometime in that period, but I'm becoming more interested in the potential for widespread soaking rains significantly curbing short-term drought as we enter the heart of the season. Given this spring has offered zero Plains chase days worth a damn so far, I'll be disappointed if that continues the next two weeks... but I think I'll be more disappointed if this guidance radically shifts and leaves most of the central Plains completely parched for May.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The next 2 weeks look moisture-starved and capped. Lots of days with potentially no storms despite favorable instability/shear overlaps, then others that are a mess. The fetch from the Gulf isn't continuous and is shown getting cut off multiple times before it can get very solid. It does look like there will be some lightning and storm structure days, so not a complete shutout - but as of yet not Plains trip-worthy IMO (coming from a long distance away that is). That said, I think there will be a couple of diamonds in the rough for the chase-everything crowd.

 

[JamesCaruso]

- but as of yet not Plains trip-worthy IMO.

I guess that’s good because with Easter and work stuff, there’s no way I could get out there in the next two weeks! Not that I don’t want others to have fun, but the more that happens early, the less seems to happen later…