South Florida Hurricane Brewing for 5/30-6/2

[J Kinkaid]

Hybrid systems down there usually are not big rain makers . I do expect this to to listed as an invest today and head for south fl this weekened.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ft.html

 

[cdcollura]

Works for me ... I will be in FL this weekend to check house and family ;-)

Maybe a tropical cyclone chase my be on order - That'll be cool!

 

[J Kinkaid]

Invest 92L now and starting to look more like a tropical system

 

[HAltschule]

GEM, GFS and GFDL all bring this developing system near or north of Tampa, FL and then over the Jacksonville, FL area to along the East and Northeast Coasts by Saturday. The GFDL has it at Tropical Storm wind strength (but this could be Extratropical or Hybrid gusts too).

Will be interesting to watch. Hopefully we'll get a nice Tropical Storm thats a heavy rain producer so it can go over the very dry areas of FL and GA.

 

[Justin E. Reed]

Hurricane Hunter to visit this lil guy tomorrow to determine whether we have our first baby boy of the year. Maybe Barry will be born tomorrow, sure looks interesting. All signs show several inches of rain over much of the state, including Jacksonville, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Orlando, WPB, FTL and Miami. The heaviest looks to fall over the Okeechobee Basin, ironically a few days after hitting record low today of 8.94 ft.!

 

[J Kinkaid]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

 

[HAltschule]

At 3pm EDT on Friday 6/1, visible satellite loops in the area show a very well defined closed circulation. The Southern half of the circulation is relatively free of convection so the system is not well organized tropically right now. Thats not to say a TD won't be issued because it may.

Model Scorecard Check:

Operational GFS: 1
Long range Ensembles from 10 days ago: 0

 

[cdcollura]

Models doin' pretty good this year ;-)