Ethan Lang
EF2
I am agreeing with Jeff on this one, a computer and tv is my plans for this one. Also like Dan said I would have a choice between the plains and canes and the plains will take the cake any day.
Hurricane Irma 2017
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Yeah the logistics of hurricane chasing are hard for me to wrap my head around. I'm still confused as to whether a hotel would actually *allow* you to stay if there is a mandatory evacuation.
On top of that, I could imagine getting down to FL and being unable to find gas, groceries, being unable to get around because of traffic, etc. Despite earlier posts here, I can still see law enforcement making you turn around. And then like Dan says above, even IF all went well with the chase, it could take days to fly out of FL to get back home.
Not that I was ever serious about chasing Irma, I am just trying to figure out in my own mind how the logistics work. I understand them in theory, but as a practical matter it seems overwhelming.
It is something on my bucket list. I really want to do it one day. Maybe when I retire and can spare 5-7 days on short notice. But there are just so few opportunities, I mean until this year it had been 12 years since a major hurricane made a US landfall! And it looks like this landfall could occur at night. Miss an opportunity and you could wait years for the next one... As frustrating as severe weather chasing can be, at least you can often try again the next day, or at worst the next year...
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JamesCaruso
Staff member
This morning's storm surge map shows only one foot of inundation in the FL Keys, how can that be? Yes it's on the "weaker" side of Irma, but there are other areas of the west coast of FL (i.e., southeast of Naples) that show a 9+ surge.
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Dan Robinson
EF5
Irma may be unchaseable as a major cane the way things are going. If the west-of-Miami track holds, eyewall could be entirely over the Everglades as it comes inland. Kay Largo and points west of course are out of the question, too dangerous. Given a western track, by the time the eyewall reaches a safe/accessible highway, it will be well inland and weakening.
Best-case scenario from a chasing perspective is if the eastern eyewall moves over southern Miami/Homestead. If it's too far east, the right-front quadrant (strongest winds) will remain offshore. That's a pretty narrow target, high risk of a "bust" in terms of getting into the strongest part of the eyewall (IMO the only reason to chase a hurricane).
Best-case scenario from a chasing perspective is if the eastern eyewall moves over southern Miami/Homestead. If it's too far east, the right-front quadrant (strongest winds) will remain offshore. That's a pretty narrow target, high risk of a "bust" in terms of getting into the strongest part of the eyewall (IMO the only reason to chase a hurricane).
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JamesCaruso
Staff member
Wouldn't you want the eastern (stronger) eyewall to move over Homestead from a chasing perspective?
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Dan Robinson
EF5
Pretty telling comparison between the two models and the tracks they are supporting:
Rob Wadsworth
EF5
The highest point of FL is 346 ft; the typical elevation is 8 ft- 30 ft. With the expected storm surge approaching ~10 ft/more, it doesn't look like the wind and rain are going to be its biggest problems . . .
Hi all.
Hi all.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I posted about this before and don't want to sound like a broken record but I am hoping somebody can help explain this - the NHC inundation graphic still only shows 1-3 feet of above ground water levels in Key West, how can that be right?? I know Key West has a higher elevation (18') than many FL shore points, but that's got to be just on a relatively small portion of the island...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?inundation#contents
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?inundation#contents
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Bob Schafer
EF5
I'm going to guess. It would seem to me that surge is enhanced when a substantial area of water is welled up into a confined spot, say, like Lake Pontchartrain. Whereas, Key West being an island, the surge will just sort of swirl right around that island.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Thanks Bob. That makes some sense. Or even just thinking of the surge going straight over the island to the other side, maybe that keeps it from piling up. But still I would think the water level itself would rise up higher than a foot as the "mound" of water under the eye advances...
I just saw this picture from Hurricane Wilma, which shows water exactly where the Irma flood forecast does - but again it's the 1' depth that seems odd on the NHC product. (Scroll halfway down the page)
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-pounding-cuba-cat-3-likely-be-cat-3-or-4-florida
On a related note, what enables the water to pile up inland as much as 6 or 9 feet, when theoretically it can just keep flowing inland until it stops at a lower depth? Really difficult to conceptualize...
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JamesCaruso
Staff member
Mike Theiss just interviewed on TWC, he is in Key West in a hotel he describes as concrete, built in 1926, and IIRC about 15 stories. I also learned that Key West has an 18' elevation - so maybe it is possible to chase a hurricane there. Of course, getting back out of there anytime soon might be difficult...
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Dan Robinson
EF5
Theiss, Brewer and Timmer are all at Key West, all experienced enough and sounds like there are a couple places there that offer adequate shelter. I won't lie, I'm jealous! But that's gonna be one heck of an expensive intercept. They're going to have to pay to be airlifted out via helicopter, as Route 1 is not going to exist in many places afterward. Whatever vehicles they used to get out there will probably not be driveable afterward (broken windows and rain-soaked interiors at minimum), even if they are, it will be weeks if not months before they can be retrieved.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I think there were earlier posts here about how observed winds never seem to come close to the NHC maximum sustained winds. It was speculated that this was because of sparse reporting/observation stations. But TWC is showing just *forecasted gusts* of around 100mph up on the northwestern FL coast. Why is that?
Right this moment at around 6:42EDT the eyewall is only about 15 miles southeast of Key West and the winds there are still only about 40mph (with higher gusts of course).
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Right this moment at around 6:42EDT the eyewall is only about 15 miles southeast of Key West and the winds there are still only about 40mph (with higher gusts of course).
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JamesCaruso
Staff member
Another question is, why is the area of the southwestern FL coast below Naples expected to have the worst storm surge? Yes it's a concave coast where water can funnel and pile up. But there is also primarily an offshore wind there. The wind won't turn onshore until the eye has already passed so there won't be that combined impact of onshore wind as the storm itself pushes the water ahead of it...
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