KenMcWatters
EF1
Irma is a Category 5 storm now, winds at 175 mph. When was the last time winds were this strong in an Atlantic basin storm?
Hurricane Irma 2017
- Thread starter Warren Faidley
- Start date
David Swindler
Enthusiast
Hurricane Felix... Way back 10 years ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Felix
Jeff House
Supporter
Irma is NOT a first hurricane chase storm. Anybody checked in with reality here?
Agree no barrier islands. Agree get on the offshore wind side of the eyewall. However I have never chased a hurricane and have no plans to do so.
If Irma goes over Cuba it could drop off to Cat 2 which would be great for the US but bad for Cuba. We don't have time for politics. Bad for Cuba is bad for people. No good options are apparent to me. As for the northern Leewards, God be with them.
Agree no barrier islands. Agree get on the offshore wind side of the eyewall. However I have never chased a hurricane and have no plans to do so.
If Irma goes over Cuba it could drop off to Cat 2 which would be great for the US but bad for Cuba. We don't have time for politics. Bad for Cuba is bad for people. No good options are apparent to me. As for the northern Leewards, God be with them.
MClarkson
EF5
Agreed. This worked great for me in the past. I scouted a good building every 20 miles or so of coastline about a day ahead and then made the final move just before eyewall impact to take into account the final wobbles. This storm could be taking a pretty oblique approach to parts of the coast... that could make initial scouting more difficult as a large landfall location delta might come from a minor track change.
Also I suggest carrying LOTS of extra gas. The evacuations and personal generators and loss of power will take out a lot of gas stations before and after the storm.
This is always a fun product to watch from Frontier Weather. All solutions in one place can be interesting. This grid is for Miami:
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Key West ordered an evacuation. Hurricane chasing question: *IF* one were so inclined (and no, I'm not doing it), would a chaser be able to make the choice to stay in a well-constructed hotel if they wanted to?? Trying to get an understanding of what's possible in these situations, relative to posts by others above.
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Warren Faidley
Supporter
Unless you have a death wish. Stay away from Key West if Irma's path or core heads that way. Highway 1 is a death trap. There are places where the ocean is literally lapping at the edges of the highway. I remember telling Jim Leonard that one of my worse fears was to be trapped on that highway -- and it's a very long road, about 160 miles from Miami. Just thought I'd throw this out in case someone was considering it.
Stay safe.
Stay safe.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Thanks for your insights Warren, wasn't at all considering it, just wondering about hurricane chasing in general and how/if it is possible to stay in a hotel in an area that is being evacuated. Would it be *possible* to do that in a case like this??
Please keep us updated on your chasing activities with this one!
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MClarkson
EF5
St Martin damage pic...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCf-_VXUAEcZco.jpg
Flipped cars... pretty high end winds...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCf-_VXUAEcZco.jpg
Flipped cars... pretty high end winds...
Jeff House
Supporter
RE above: Trees stripped is tornado like damage. Looks like plenty of flying missiles too. Thankfully we see survivors about.
OK Warren is right. You can't set up near sea level due to the storm surge. The Keys are a no-chase zone. Even in a steel reinforced concrete mid-rise, the lower floor flooding will create unlivable conditions; and, help would be days away.
If I were to do it, again zero interest, it would be from a steel reinforced concrete building with lowest floor well above sea level. I would not try it on a barrier island. Position must be in the off-shore wind part of the eyewall.
Actually, my living room with TV 1,000 miles away is a great position!
OK Warren is right. You can't set up near sea level due to the storm surge. The Keys are a no-chase zone. Even in a steel reinforced concrete mid-rise, the lower floor flooding will create unlivable conditions; and, help would be days away.
If I were to do it, again zero interest, it would be from a steel reinforced concrete building with lowest floor well above sea level. I would not try it on a barrier island. Position must be in the off-shore wind part of the eyewall.
Actually, my living room with TV 1,000 miles away is a great position!
Dan Robinson
EF5
Yeah - the Keys would be almost suicidal (as would most barrier islands) but man, being in a well-reinforced structure in a cat 4 or 5 would probably be incredible. Keeping yourself out of harm's way is *somewhat* easy if you have a multi-story fortified structure, keeping your vehicle safe and/or being able to get home within a week on your own is another thing. Several chasers lost their vehicles in Katrina's storm surge. Chris Collura barely saved his car by driving it up a pedestrian walkway.
Most standard multi-story hotels aren't up to spec for even a cat 3, but many of the ones right on the coasts are built to much higher specs.
Most standard multi-story hotels aren't up to spec for even a cat 3, but many of the ones right on the coasts are built to much higher specs.
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Greg Campbell
EF5
Hey all. I got a bit caught up in the hype about the 180+ MPH sustained winds reported by the NOAA aircraft, and half expected most of Anguilla, St. Martin, etc. to suffer EF-4 levels of catastrophic damage. This clearly hasn't happened. What's the typical de-rating for winds over land vs. open ocean? There must be a fairly significant drop-off in ground-level velocities...
Thanks.
Thanks.
Ben Holcomb
EF5
Tornadoes have vertical velocities you must take into account as well. I don't pretend to understand physics, fluid dynamics or meteorology but there is a pretty distinct difference in the forces acted upon houses between a hurricane and a tornado.
MClarkson
EF5
In addition to open ocean verse land, the storms max strength is for it's right side eyewall, which stayed north of those islands. I doubt those population centers experienced 180mph sustained winds, but some of the damage pics support 180mph gusts in places. Flipped cars, 100% defoliation. There were also damage pics that clearly do not indicate winds of that strength which could have been just a bit south of the eyewall, or shielded by terrain.
Where the eyewall hit directly it looked pretty ferocious.
Where the eyewall hit directly it looked pretty ferocious.
John Vandehei
EF2
Keep in mind the motion of the storm also affects ground wind speeds. With a westward moving hurricane, you can add the forward speed of the hurricane to the rotational speed of the circulating winds for the northern eyewall. For the southern eyewall, the forward motion of the storm can be subtracted from the circulatory winds in the eyewall, as they are in opposite directions. Combine this with land friction and other factors, this can partly explain why less than category 5 winds (and/or damage) were observed in some areas.
